NEWS Is the pivot to China a bunch of bullshit?

[ChuckMK23]

We deserve? We deserve nothing more than the poorest African child starving to death deserves. Our lives are worth no more than their's. We aren't special just because we're rich by international standards. This is disgusting.

@Mirage there was once a bright shining star in Africa called Rhodesia. It was a country of incredible social equity where civil European society constructs and capital came to Africa to create social and economic prosperity for all. It was a hope for Africa! It was of course rejected in favor of inter tribal fighting and the embrace of Islamic radicalism that persists today in the form of famine and disease.

 

[PhrogLoop]

@Mirage there was once a bright shining star in Africa called Rhodesia. It was a country of incredible social equity where civil European society constructs and capital came to Africa to create social and economic prosperity for all. It was a hope for Africa! It was of course rejected in favor of inter tribal fighting and the embrace of Islamic radicalism that persists today in the form of famine and disease.

@ChuckMK23 are you sure about “incredible social equity” in Rhodesia? Couldn’t tell if you were being funny https://time.com/6324696/rhodesia-minority-rule/

 

[croakerfish]

@Mirage there was once a bright shining star in Africa called Rhodesia. It was a country of incredible social equity where civil European society constructs and capital came to Africa to create social and economic prosperity for all. It was a hope for Africa! It was of course rejected in favor of inter tribal fighting and the embrace of Islamic radicalism that persists today in the form of famine and disease.

Is this a troll?

 

[Mirage]

Is this a troll?

I seem to attract them.

 

[Hotdogs]

I seem to attract them.

Nope. You’re just not great at proving your arguments with credible sources, logic, and pragmatic solutions.

 

[PhrogLoop]

@Mirage there was once a bright shining star in Africa called Rhodesia. It was a country of incredible social equity where civil European society constructs and capital came to Africa to create social and economic prosperity for all. It was a hope for Africa! It was of course rejected in favor of inter tribal fighting and the embrace of Islamic radicalism that persists today in the form of famine and disease.

@ChuckMK23 here’s some more light reading about “social and economic prosperity for all” in Rhodesia.

 

[Mirage]

Nope. You’re just not great at proving your arguments with credible sources, logic, and pragmatic solutions.

Oh look, another!

 

[Random8145]

A few things about our debt:

1) The cost to service the debt versus our GDP ratio isn't so much the issue as the cost to service the debt versus the revenues to the Treasury. One of the criteria used in grading a nation's bonds is how much of the money going to the government must be spent on servicing the debt.

2) If the situation got too bad, we could implement significantly higher taxes than what we have now. We could implement a Value-Added Tax (VAT) for example like they have in Europe (which long-term I think the politicians would find ways to spend and make the situation even worse, but in the short term could help with servicing the debt).

3) A combination of inflation, higher taxes, and various spending cuts also would/could be used. These wouldn't be popular but would help fix the issue.

4) Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio is higher than ours (263%) but they haven't suffered any Weimar Republic style inflation.

5) We do not need to necessarily pay down our debt, we more need to get the growth of government spending under control so that the size of the economy grows faster than the growth of the debt. The debt could technically continue to grow bigger, but if the economy grows faster, than the debt as a percentage of GDP would start to decline.

6) Our economy is a super powerful instrument unto itself for wealth creation. This also serves as a tool against the debt.

That we can implement tax increases, spending cuts, and are great for wealth creation are all reasons why people and institutions continue to trust that we won't default on our debt.

 

[Random8145]

If I may repeat, the US debt is a non-issue. Let's move the fuck on. Our government has the capacity to create more money as necessary. This is not a zero-sum game. As Americans, we are exceptional and we deserve a certain standard of living by being the most important country on the fucking planet and in the history of the world.

The debt is very much an issue I'd say and remember there is a difference between creating money versus creating wealth. That said, I do not see the debt as a bomb about to detonate.

 

[Mirage]

A few things about our debt:

1) The cost to service the debt versus our GDP ratio isn't so much the issue as the cost to service the debt versus the revenues to the Treasury. One of the criteria used in grading a nation's bonds is how much of the money going to the government must be spent on servicing the debt.

2) If the situation got too bad, we could implement significantly higher taxes than what we have now. We could implement a Value-Added Tax (VAT) for example like they have in Europe (which long-term I think the politicians would find ways to spend and make the situation even worse, but in the short term could help with servicing the debt).

3) A combination of inflation, higher taxes, and various spending cuts also would/could be used. These wouldn't be popular but would help fix the issue.

4) Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio is higher than ours (263%) but they haven't suffered any Weimar Republic style inflation.

5) We do not need to necessarily pay down our debt, we more need to get the growth of government spending under control so that the size of the economy grows faster than the growth of the debt. The debt could technically continue to grow bigger, but if the economy grows faster, than the debt as a percentage of GDP would start to decline.

6) Our economy is a super powerful instrument unto itself for wealth creation. This also serves as a tool against the debt.

That we can implement tax increases, spending cuts, and are great for wealth creation are all reasons why people and institutions continue to trust that we won't default on our debt.

Yes, our only ways out are to increase taxes, decrease spending, and grow our way out of it. Options 1 and 2 prevent option 3 from happening, and will actually cause us to shrink, making the problem worse. Option 3 can't happen on it's own, because we are spending way way faster than we're growing. So that leaves us with increased taxes and decreased spending... 2 things our politicians refuse to do. At some point, they'll have no choice, and by that point our interest payments will be so high that the cuts will have to be that much deeper to actually pay down any of the debt and improve the situation. So... drastic cuts and higher taxes... how do you think that ends? A shrinking economy that raises less money in taxation, and even more drastic cuts required, leading to a depression and a dramatically decreased ability to respond to emergencies like a war with China. We're so focused on today's problems that we are creating a huge problem in our near to medium term future.

There is a reason why basically everyone involved in the actual day to day job of managing the economy (and not sitting in their ivory tower at some university), from Yellen to Powell to the leaders of our banks and the institutions buying the debt, agrees that the path we're on is unsustainable. We've got to start writing letters to our leaders and get them to open their eyes before it's too late.

 

[taxi1]

Options 1 and 2 prevent option 3 from happening

Not true

 

[WhiskeySierra6]

Not true

Copy shot...continue...

 

[SteveHolt!!!]

Yes, our only ways out are to increase taxes, decrease spending, and grow our way out of it. Options 1 and 2 prevent option 3 from happening, and will actually cause us to shrink, making the problem worse. Option 3 can't happen on it's own, because we are spending way way faster than we're growing. So that leaves us with increased taxes and decreased spending... 2 things our politicians refuse to do. At some point, they'll have no choice, and by that point our interest payments will be so high that the cuts will have to be that much deeper to actually pay down any of the debt and improve the situation. So... drastic cuts and higher taxes... how do you think that ends? A shrinking economy that raises less money in taxation, and even more drastic cuts required, leading to a depression and a dramatically decreased ability to respond to emergencies like a war with China. We're so focused on today's problems that we are creating a huge problem in our near to medium term future.

There is a reason why basically everyone involved in the actual day to day job of managing the economy (and not sitting in their ivory tower at some university), from Yellen to Powell to the leaders of our banks and the institutions buying the debt, agrees that the path we're on is unsustainable. We've got to start writing letters to our leaders and get them to open their eyes before it's too late.

Do you have any specific ideas? What should I put in my letter? "Spending cuts" is nice, but if you go line by line, most spending is actually popular.

I assume since the sky is falling, you're willing to do your part and eat a big tax increase to help?

 

[Random8145]

Yes, our only ways out are to increase taxes, decrease spending, and grow our way out of it. Options 1 and 2 prevent option 3 from happening, and will actually cause us to shrink, making the problem worse. Option 3 can't happen on it's own, because we are spending way way faster than we're growing. So that leaves us with increased taxes and decreased spending... 2 things our politicians refuse to do. At some point, they'll have no choice, and by that point our interest payments will be so high that the cuts will have to be that much deeper to actually pay down any of the debt and improve the situation. So... drastic cuts and higher taxes... how do you think that ends? A shrinking economy that raises less money in taxation, and even more drastic cuts required, leading to a depression and a dramatically decreased ability to respond to emergencies like a war with China. We're so focused on today's problems that we are creating a huge problem in our near to medium term future.

There is a reason why basically everyone involved in the actual day to day job of managing the economy (and not sitting in their ivory tower at some university), from Yellen to Powell to the leaders of our banks and the institutions buying the debt, agrees that the path we're on is unsustainable. We've got to start writing letters to our leaders and get them to open their eyes before it's too late.

What makes you think increasing taxes or decreasing spending will inhibit growth? Also that is kind of contradictory, no?

"We are spending way too much, it is unsustainable."
"We cannot reduce spending as it will hurt growth."

Excessively raising taxes will harm growth, but where that limit is is debatable. And excessively reducing spending in a sudden manner could harm growth, so it would need to be more gradual.

 

[Mirage]

What makes you think increasing taxes or decreasing spending will inhibit growth? Also that is kind of contradictory, no?

"We are spending way too much, it is unsustainable."
"We cannot reduce spending as it will hurt growth."

Excessively raising taxes will harm growth, but where that limit is is debatable. And excessively reducing spending in a sudden manner could harm growth, so it would need to be more gradual.

You ask me why I think raising taxes and decreasing spending inhibit growth, and then immediately acknowledge that doing those things "excessively" does exactly that. Of course it does that. Do any research at all and you'll find that has always been the case.

The Impact of Individual Income Tax Changes on Economic Growth

Research almost invariably shows a negative relationship between income tax rates and gross domestic product (GDP). Cuts to marginal tax rates are highly correlated with decreases in the unemployment rate.

taxfoundation.org

Do you have any specific ideas? What should I put in my letter? "Spending cuts" is nice, but if you go line by line, most spending is actually popular.

I assume since the sky is falling, you're willing to do your part and eat a big tax increase to help?

Perhaps tell them to listen to Fed Chairman Powell, who said it is "time, or past time, to get back to an adult conversation among elected officials about getting the federal government back on a sustainable fiscal path." Spending being popular doesn't make it smart. Cake is popular in my house but we don't eat it constantly, because we have an adult conversation about that, too.

You asking if I'd eat a big tax increase is indicative of not thinking our current path through to it's logical end. A big tax increase is coming, period. Big spending cuts are coming, period. The longer we wait to balance the budget, the larger the tax increase and budget cuts will be. That's just a mathematical fact. There's just no way to grow our way out of this hole at this point short of an AI miracle, so there's no other possible solution to the problem. That's what everyone who does this for a living means when they say our current path is unsustainable. It's foolish to ignore them.