I see 2 possibilities for China, either the people rebel and the Army backs them or they turn into a giant NK. Of course I’m just talking out my a$$.
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NEWS Is the pivot to China a bunch of bullshit?
- Thread starter ChuckMK23
- Start date
Falklands, yep. Chavez provoking Colombia and Maduro stirring up shit by claiming to annex 2/3 of Guyana right now. South Africa’s “Bush War” in the 70s and 80s. The Kims have so reliably threatened to go on a “war footing” every time they have some kind of internal crisis that a lot of outside observers use it as an indicator of what’s going on in the DPRK.
The Falklands is a great example of an exception to the rule, for sure. I am not sure about the others, for various reasons. That said, I think there are some pretty obvious differences between the Falklands and a potential Chinese decision to go to war with us to maintain their power (like that it might very easily end in complete nuclear waste). Personally, I'd be afraid of a desperate Chinese play if I were the Uyghurs maybe, but I feel pretty safe here. The better comparison I'd think, would be the Chinese gambling we wouldn't stop them from taking Taiwan, much like Argentina bet the British would let them have the Falklands. I think, though, we've been pretty clear where that road ends, unlike the British.
FakeUsername
Officer Hopeful
To answer your original question. The US Military has to continue to pivot to China with an increase in its presence in the Indo-Pacific.
Regardless of the outcome of the CCP's serious domestic challenges, China has and will continue to increase their military hostility in the region, ie their increasing levels of attacks on fishermen in the South China Sea. We are observing the economic consequences that the Houthi blockage of the Red Sea has, as well as the consequence of a drying Panama Canal. Now imagine what will happen if they begin to threaten the freedom of navigation in the SCS or even in the Straight of Malaca. The Navy's main responsibility is the freedom of navigation, as our modern economic prosperity and that of the world rely on it.
If you want to see what kind of threat their military poses in the region, look at the reaction of their neighbors in the region. The Philippines for example, has a history of anti-American sentiment, but with their clear understanding of the Chinese threat, they have begun allowing us to establish military bases in their country. Even Japan and South Korea understand the threat, as they have put aside painful historical disputes and resentments in collaboration with the US to create an anti-Chinese alliance. The region understands the threat, and the US has to respond to that threat with an increased presence (militarily and diplomatically) in the region.
Regardless of the outcome of the CCP's serious domestic challenges, China has and will continue to increase their military hostility in the region, ie their increasing levels of attacks on fishermen in the South China Sea. We are observing the economic consequences that the Houthi blockage of the Red Sea has, as well as the consequence of a drying Panama Canal. Now imagine what will happen if they begin to threaten the freedom of navigation in the SCS or even in the Straight of Malaca. The Navy's main responsibility is the freedom of navigation, as our modern economic prosperity and that of the world rely on it.
If you want to see what kind of threat their military poses in the region, look at the reaction of their neighbors in the region. The Philippines for example, has a history of anti-American sentiment, but with their clear understanding of the Chinese threat, they have begun allowing us to establish military bases in their country. Even Japan and South Korea understand the threat, as they have put aside painful historical disputes and resentments in collaboration with the US to create an anti-Chinese alliance. The region understands the threat, and the US has to respond to that threat with an increased presence (militarily and diplomatically) in the region.
We have a long history of putting together really good alliances. I’d say it’s our real superpower.
Good FP article on the subject
Great report. It is interesting to note that China’s military power is reaching an apex just as their economy is getting a bit wobbly. Makes things quite dangerous…like Germany in 1914.Good FP article on the subject
I've been hearing this fear mongering about China since I was a Mid nearly 15 years ago. I was briefed by a flag who said, matter of factly, that we'd be at war with China within a few years at most, and I've heard the same thing nearly every year since. I'm not saying it won't ever happen, but I'm not going to keep believing it every time I hear someone cry wolf.
We love fear mongering, and between the flags trying to justify higher budgets, the politicians trying to justify military spending in their districts, the military industrial complex justifying their programs, the media trying to get clicks, and the academics trying to make their careers, there's plenty of people selling it.
China hasn't used it's military hardly at all in modern history, and the smart money is on that trend continuing.
We love fear mongering, and between the flags trying to justify higher budgets, the politicians trying to justify military spending in their districts, the military industrial complex justifying their programs, the media trying to get clicks, and the academics trying to make their careers, there's plenty of people selling it.
China hasn't used it's military hardly at all in modern history, and the smart money is on that trend continuing.
Spekkio
He bowls overhand.
Wasn't meant to point fingers. More a commentary that we could elect the most pro-China President since Nixon (neither of the front runners are remotely this...) and they will face the hard reality of Xi's stubborness and will to achieve the 100 years plan. We can either back them into a corner or we can fuel their military buildup with American dollars.
I personally don't think US foreign relations with China gets enough media attention. I'm not talking about the "China's about to implode!" yellow journalism. We are, for all intents and purposes, in a cold war with them...been that way since 2015.
Very few Americans understand the strategic factors that played into the Trump administration's decision to institute tariffs and the Biden administration's willingness to continue them. Nor do they understand China's impact to our military's force structure requirements.
Spekkio
He bowls overhand.
Idk, 15 years ago everything was revolving around CENTCOM IMO.
The official "pivot to the Pacific" was a national strategy document written by the Obama administration in 2014 (iirc, maybe 2013).
I can tell you that in my neck of the woods, the entire force training and certification process has been melded to revolve around conflict with China. This isn't a case of a senior officer pontificating his politics to MIDN like it was in 2009.
The Chinese are exceptionally long sighted (the 100 year plan, their legal mandate to not capitulate territory). That said, I’ve always wondered how the economic impact of a war would affect them. I would imagine almost the entirety of Western funds would vanish overnight.
A little bit of reading shows their domestic financial situation isn’t great, particularly with the billions lost in real estate. I have to imagine that any loss of foreign money would be devastating.
But, back to my original point, they may simply not care and decide the short term financial issues are resolved over a long enough period of time.
A little bit of reading shows their domestic financial situation isn’t great, particularly with the billions lost in real estate. I have to imagine that any loss of foreign money would be devastating.
But, back to my original point, they may simply not care and decide the short term financial issues are resolved over a long enough period of time.
Germany vs Russia (the WWII one)? Japan vs the US and allies? Hussein vs Iran (granted, he did think they were weak...)? Arab countries and terrorist groups vs Israel, numerous times?
Using history as their guide they though they would get away with it and almost did, after all the last time a country 'retook' territory from a 'colonial power' they did. Thatcher and Admiral Leach had other ideas though.
Agree, though I think attacking US forces that could respond to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could be an option they try.
It isn't fearmongering if the threat is real and growing. Claiming it is all just military leaders and politicians discounts a lot of very smart folks who have serious concerns about China and its increasingly aggressive foreign policy and rapidly increasing military capability. That has largely happened over the last 20 years, and accelerated under Xi Jinping.
For much of its modern history China wasn't able to use its military except against its neighbors, which it has done at least 5 times since the end of World War II, the difference now is they have far more capability.
Hitler didn't attack Russia to resolve a deteriorating domestic political situation. Quite the opposite actually. Nor did Japan attack us, who thought their ruler a god and never would have revolted. Nor did Hussein vs Iran, or Arab countries vs Israel. You're forgetting that key component in the discussion.
Whatever their reasons for claiming war with China has been imminent for the last 30+ years, they have been wrong thus far.
China has no reason to go to war with us. As others mentioned, they are very long term thinkers, unlike our politicians who are incentivised to focus only on the time until their next election. If China is wise, and I think they are, they will simply wait for our debt bomb to explode. There's been much talk of China peaking and such here, but we're staring at a much steeper cliff than they are.
I wouldn’t call a country who created their own demographic time bomb or picks fight with its biggest export market a “wise” country.
I don’t think you fully appreciate the challenges that China is facing right now. The housing situation allow is potentially an order of magnitude beyond what we experienced in 2008. Particularly because of domestic investment mechanics and PRC regulations on private equity.