NEWS Is the pivot to China a bunch of bullshit?

[Notanaviator]

I very well may be wrong, as you're right that I don't fully understand all the challenges China is facing.

Read HR McMaster’s Battlegrounds. He puts in simple terms the economic, demographic, and political challenges China faces, and starts to unpack the complicated question of how that will play into what they do in the neighborhood/global order.

One advantage to their 1 party system is that they are much better equipped to handle their debt burden

That doesn’t make them better equipped to handle their debt burden, it means they will have less overt resistance to the course chosen by whoever is leading the one party. Very big difference.

Every time I try to debate with someone on here, I stick to the subject, and I'll attack their argument while making mine. Then, without fail, Griz, you, and/or Hotdog will resort to ad hominem attacks to make up for your lack of substance, and the shit show begins.

Those first two are thoughtfulish responses to a few things you wrote many pages ago. Since then you’ve made a ton of random ass assertions, asked Griz to explain macro to you like four different ways (which, to my unending shock, he actually did- nicely done there on both the college level theory and the five year old versions, btw), and then mocked him periodically for somehow not properly engaging in the conversation?

I genuinely grappled with who looks more foolish, you or the several members who time and again engage with you thinking it’s worth their time. I still landed on you, but each one of these gets a little closer. Not much closer though. And for the record, this isn’t an ad hominem attack or anything, I’m not saying you’re a bad person, just an observation that the way you’re going about this - making an argument, expecting people to agree with yoy, and then telling them they’re not doing it the way you want them to do it - is not super productive for anyone.

PS having actually done a thesis on the underpinnings of the rise of totalitarianism in Germany, it’s pretty clear that @Griz882 actually knows what the hell it is he’s talking about (and can and has articulated it in any form you request), and you keep telling him he’s not answering the question. Wild stuff. Hope you’re serious about that ‘I’m done’ thing, though I doubt it.

 

[Mos]

God this thread got boring fast.

 

[SteveHolt!!!]

I thought we had just transitioned to civil war era drill.

The wheel was effective but also depended on company grade leadership for effective coordination at the regiment and brigade level. At little round top, the 20th Maine needed effective battalion leadership from major spears to ensure the left wing right wheel stayed connected to the rest of the regiment.

 

[sevenhelmet]

 

[Random8145]

A major problem for China as well is since coming to power, Xi has cracked down heavily on both civil society (no talk of democratic government allowed, which used to be quite common on Chinese social media apparently), no visiting Taiwan to witness their elections (something that used to be popular with Chinese), and over the past few years, a heavy crackdown on the private sector. The crackdown on the private sector was about reigning in the power of Chinese Big Tech and wealth inequality but it also was likely about the CCP just not liking entrepreneurs and lots of economic control being held by the private sector. The result was disastrous, with a lot of value destroyed and entrepreneurs, global business, and investors spooked, so now the CCP is trying to backtrack but it is a hard sell.

So Xi in seeking to make China more powerful has inadvertently been doing things to make it less powerful it seems.

 

[Spekkio]

A major problem for China as well is since coming to power, Xi has cracked down heavily on both civil society (no talk of democratic government allowed, which used to be quite common on Chinese social media apparently), no visiting Taiwan to witness their elections (something that used to be popular with Chinese), and over the past few years, a heavy crackdown on the private sector. The crackdown on the private sector was about reigning in the power of Chinese Big Tech and wealth inequality but it also was likely about the CCP just not liking entrepreneurs and lots of economic control being held by the private sector. The result was disastrous, with a lot of value destroyed and entrepreneurs, global business, and investors spooked, so now the CCP is trying to backtrack but it is a hard sell.

So Xi in seeking to make China more powerful has inadvertently been doing things to make it less powerful it seems.

Those moves weren't made to make China more powerful.

Our good friend Winnie the Poo comes from a political family and spent almost a decade in exile. He's a Maoist consolidating his power against his political rivals.

 

[Hotdogs]

Then, without fail, Griz, you, and/or Hotdog will resort to ad hominem attacks to make up for your lack of substance, and the shit show begins.

I actually got a little turned on by Mirage from catching this stray bullet from him.

 

[Griz882]

Back to our regularly scheduled program…

Of course one must consider the news source, but this article presents a good look a China’s carrier capability. Between discussions of civil war drill and post-war German economics I often question how well China’s carriers, indeed their whole navy, can operate in war time. China doesn’t have a great naval history and while they certainly practice operations, war is a different thing. Then again, the geographic aspects of such a conflict are equally fascinating.Thoughts?

IN FOCUS: PLA carriers unfit for war: sources - Taipei Times

Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan

www.taipeitimes.com

 

[DanMa1156]

That’s intersting- had never considered it before. I’m legitimately curious: If you apply a similar metric to the US (combining debt at all levels of government), what number v. GDP do you get?

I am not positive but I don’t think it’s an apples to apples comparison. Don’t ask me to explain provincial economics in China, but in the United States, individual states must run balanced budgets or surpluses, because they cannot print money.

I think Chinese provincial leaders are encouraged to pursue ever greater growth, and there must be some sort of mechanism for them to take on debt that is not an apples to apples comparison to state issued bonds.

 

[JTS11]

I am not positive but I don’t think it’s an apples to apples comparison. Don’t ask me to explain provincial economics in China, but in the United States, individual states must run balanced budgets or surpluses, because they cannot print money.

I think Chinese provincial leaders are encouraged to pursue ever greater growth, and there must be some sort of mechanism for them to take on debt that is not an apples to apples comparison to state issued bonds.

I'm no expert, but I believe you are correct WRT state finances. I know there are certain states where their pension liabilities aren't looking real good, but I believe they'll have to suck it up, bc there would be zero political will for any federal bailout. I could be wrong though.

Like you, I have zero knowledge about Chinese provincial debt.

 

[PhrogLoop]

I am not positive but I don’t think it’s an apples to apples comparison. Don’t ask me to explain provincial economics in China…

It’ll make your head spin. There’s an onshore and an offshore price for Chinese currency for starters.

 

[Flash]

Back to our regularly scheduled program…

Of course one must consider the news source, but this article presents a good look a China’s carrier capability. Between discussions of civil war drill and post-war German economics I often question how well China’s carriers, indeed their whole navy, can operate in war time. China doesn’t have a great naval history and while they certainly practice operations, war is a different thing. Then again, the geographic aspects of such a conflict are equally fascinating.Thoughts?

IN FOCUS: PLA carriers unfit for war: sources - Taipei Times

Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan

www.taipeitimes.com

They're learning, and quickly. Two similar naval buildups I can think of going from a small, largely homebound navy with relatively few capabilities to a world-class blue water navy in a generation are the German Navy prior to World War I and the Soviet Navy post-1962. While it was still a very young navy by the time it went to war the Kaiserliche Marine acquitted itself quite well when committed to battle, though it was severely constrained by geography in achieving any significant strategic gains beyond keeping the main part of the Royal Navy in place to counter it. While the Russian Navy hasn't exactly been a shining example of competence in the Russia-Ukraine War the Soviet Navy was capable threat in the 70's and 80's, but would have likely seen its deployed forces at sea quickly cut off and the rest confined to its 'home waters' in a war with the US and NATO.

China has similar geographical constraints as Imperial Germany and the USSR, with the 'First Island Chain' presenting a significant obstacle through which it must travel to operate beyond its 'home waters'. Chinese naval forces beyond the First Island Chain would be a threat that must be dealt with in war though, and they are becoming more capable every year. Conversely, attacking mainland China has become more of a challenge made more difficult by the significant weapons development strides China has made to implement its apparent Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) strategy.

 

[Notanaviator]

They're learning, and quickly. Two similar naval buildups I can think of going from a small, largely homebound navy with relatively few capabilities to a world-class blue water navy in a generation are the German Navy prior to World War I and the Soviet Navy post-1962. While it was still a very young navy by the time it went to war the Kaiserliche Marine acquitted itself quite well when committed to battle, though it was severely constrained by geography in achieving any significant strategic gains beyond keeping the main part of the Royal Navy in place to counter it. While the Russian Navy hasn't exactly been a shining example of competence in the Russia-Ukraine War the Soviet Navy was capable threat in the 70's and 80's, but would have likely seen its deployed forces at sea quickly cut off and the rest confined to its 'home waters' in a war with the US and NATO.

China has similar geographical constraints as Imperial Germany and the USSR, with the 'First Island Chain' presenting a significant obstacle through which it must travel to operate beyond its 'home waters'. Chinese naval forces beyond the First Island Chain would be a threat that must be dealt with in war though, and they are becoming more capable every year. Conversely, attacking mainland China has become more of a challenge made more difficult by the significant weapons development strides China has made to implement its apparent Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) strategy.

Would add to this Japan in the end of the 19th/beginning of 20th century. One of the most fascinating glow ups I can think of in modern history was the complicated 'opening of Japan' that led to, on the one hand, a series of deeply lopsided trade agreements that ultimately created the aggressive course taken in the 20th century, but on the other a pretty impressive onboarding and further development of effectively the best of all the western innovation they saw around the world, from military tech to railroads to beer. The shellacking the Russkies took in 1905 surprised an awful lot of folks.

Edit: now that I'm noodling on this, would love to see @Randy Daytona drop some Early 20th c IJN goodness on the group in the Ship Photo thread.

 

[Spekkio]

I am not positive but I don’t think it’s an apples to apples comparison. Don’t ask me to explain provincial economics in China, but in the United States, individual states must run balanced budgets or surpluses, because they cannot print money.

I think Chinese provincial leaders are encouraged to pursue ever greater growth, and there must be some sort of mechanism for them to take on debt that is not an apples to apples comparison to state issued bonds.

States also can run deficits by selling municipal bonds. In fact, buying these funds in a brokerage is superior to a savings account because you only pay taxes on the portion of interest earned from your state. E.g. if the fund has 10% of its bonds coming from your state and you earned $1,000 in interest, you only have to claim $100 of income whereas a savings account you have to claim all $1,000.

This is how states fund big projects like new stadiums and arenas.

Anyway, it's true that states don't have the ability to infinitely finance debt by calling the federal reserve and say "hey, wanna 'buy' some treasuries by typing numbers into a spreadsheet?" An actual person, company, or bank with pre-existing funds has to buy municipal bonds.

 

[Random8145]

While the Russian Navy hasn't exactly been a shining example of competence in the Russia-Ukraine War the Soviet Navy was capable threat in the 70's and 80's, but would have likely seen its deployed forces at sea quickly cut off and the rest confined to its 'home waters' in a war with the US and NATO.

Remember that due to the John Walker spy ring, the Soviets could read the Navy's secret communications and knew the locations of all the U.S. submarines until Walker was finally found out.