It's way too early for you to be thinking about your O4 board.
In 10 years they can be selecting 80% of in zone aviators and you'll be kicking yourself for passing up this opportunity. They could still be promoting 45%, which doesn't include you, and you'll be kicking yourself for passing up this opportunity. You might find a nice young lady and want to settle somewhere with kids instead of stay Navy, and you'll be kicking yourself for passing up this opportunity. Or you might be one of the myriad of LTs who think he is destined for greatness, and while you're blogging everything that's wrong with the Navy for not recognizing how shit-hot you are you'll be kicking yourself for passing up this opportunity.