FY18 O-5 results

[hscs]

Follow-on question: how many months buffer is usually built-in by the PERS wizards between the end of a CO tour and the URL O-6 board?

Early O-5 + on-time CMD screen could be bad if you don't get that last CO FITREP and/or start a joint tour before your first CAPT look.

I think by design it is supposed to be about 2 years between finishing command and board. That is shrinking - lots of guys in command close to twenty years and guys are going to O6 boards at the 20 year mark.

Agree with previous posts that an early O5 could be an issue - you could end up as an O6 select at high water mark for your CO tour. Similar issue happened to some folks that early selected O4 years ago and didn't have the paper (due to time in squadron) when they went to the O5 board.

 

[Farva01]

Results for O-5 are out. Congrats to all the selects!

http://www.public.navy.mil/bupers-npc/reference/messages/Documents/ALNAVS/ALN2017/ALN17042.txt

Board statistics are here:

http://www.public.navy.mil/bupers-npc/boards/activedutyofficer/05line/Documents/FY18 AO5L STATS.pdf

What I find interesting on that there were 3 pilots selected Below Zone; that is fairly unprecedented. This is the change we (Royal we) were looking for with the masking of zones in the board, and I am glad to see that these 3 are being rewarded for their hard work. I hope we see a similar occurrence with the O-4 board.

So I can't find the specifics about masking zones, but it may not apply to below zone. Reading the precept it discusses that no more than 10% of the total selects may be below zone.
But consider this, if below zone is masked, does it even matter if it is an "exceptional record?" For an aviator, if they are out of their DH tour with a high water FITREP and in a joint job, they look like every other person on the board. That I would argue is not a good thing. That would just push out the individuals with shorter DH FITREPS. Just like the command board is getting longer and longer tickets (I heard 14 months for VFA on the last board) that would become a factor for the O-5 board.

This came up a couple or six of years ago when there was more than a handful or guys that got passed over for O-5 even with EP DH tickets. It is hard enough to convince people to go DH. At least right now the carrot at the end of the stick is you should pick up O-5 on the other side as long as you don't get a DUI or kill someone. Now if O-5 becomes harder because of the below zone mix-in, the motivation for DH just got reduced. Or maybe it will work itself out in the long run.

 

[EODDave]

For an aviator, if they are out of their DH tour with a high water FITREP and in a joint job, they look like every other person on the board. That I would argue is not a good thing. That would just push out the individuals with shorter DH FITREPS. Just like the command board is getting longer and longer tickets (I heard 14 months for VFA on the last board) that would become a factor for the O-5 board.

This came up a couple or six of years ago when there was more than a handful or guys that got passed over for O-5 even with EP DH tickets. It is hard enough to convince people to go DH. At least right now the carrot at the end of the stick is you should pick up O-5 on the other side as long as you don't get a DUI or kill someone. Now if O-5 becomes harder because of the below zone mix-in, the motivation for DH just got reduced. Or maybe it will work itself out in the long run.

You hit the nail on the head. That just happened on this board to me and several others. Kind of a moot point for me, other than a bruised ego, as I'm well over 20 years and working on heading to the show. It's a kick in the nuts though to guys who got shorter ticket EPs as MO and or OPs that don't have the time in to retire. I foresee continuation boards for guys that this happens too. And if they can't get to 20 and get the boot before retirement, that will just be another reasons for guys to say fuck it.

On another note, I know one of the BZ guys. Awesome dude and I couldn't be more excited to see him put it on early. With the job he is currently in, not even getting O5 pay early would be worth that job.

 

[HooverPilot]

I don't disagree with the impacts at O-5. It's a small group so that impact is minimal. What I am looking for is a larger group of BZ picks on the O-4 board.

I look favorably on this on the premise of rewarding someone for exceptional performance. There are going to be some "others" that go along with it. I don't know yet if one outweighs the other.

 

[EODDave]

Im all for top performers getting early promotions. I just think that it is going to drive how front offices hand out tickets. There is also going to need to be some expectation management by front offices to their DHs. Short tickets and #2 EPs are not going to hold the weight at the boards that they have in the past. Only time will tell.

What will guys who are making the decision to stay or go do if they now know they have lower odds of making O5 and retirement? If they think the numbers of guys not taking it now is bad, just wait for this to hit.

 

[IKE]

I don't have the message handy, but I also think the BZ stamp still appears, it's just the AZ/IZ stamps that were removed.

Looking at FY16/17 stats, I don't think BZ (or AZ) selects affected IZ opportunity much. IZs were 92% of 1310/1320 selects in FY16, 96% in FY17, and this year they were 91%. If anyone's looking for threadjack/bitchfest fodder, the biggest change from FY16/17 to FY18 seems to be an increase in 1110 IZ selection rate (and decrease in 1310 IZ). Community brief difference?

 

[Flash]

It's a kick in the nuts though to guys who got shorter ticket EPs as MO and or OPs that don't have the time in to retire. I foresee continuation boards for guys that this happens too. And if they can't get to 20 and get the boot before retirement, that will just be another reasons for guys to say fuck it.

...What will guys who are making the decision to stay or go do if they now know they have lower odds of making O5 and retirement? If they think the numbers of guys not taking it now is bad, just wait for this to hit.

As long as I have been in the Navy and from what I know of in the few before that we have allowed almost all O-4's to get to 20, with pretty much automatic continuation past HYT to retire. There was a time in the early 90's when we allowed folks to retire with less than 20 but I don't recall hearing folks being admin sep'd as O-4's, definitely not since I have been in and I have known plenty of folks who have gone that route and never had a worry about getting to 20. The only guy I know that didn't make it to 20 as an O-4 was a special case that involved augmentation and that isn't a concern anymore. Now whether folks want to do it is another question.

 

[EODDave]

I have no issues with the change and I think promoting guys early is a good deal. I also think the Navy and front offices need to be up front, honest and have that open conversation with guys. I don't think anyone would have an issue as long as they are told up front what their future in the Navy holds. Best case and worst case. It's the front offices playing "I have a secret with your career" until the last minute and then the get the "sorry man, it just didn't work out for you." Thankful my last skipper didn't think that way. However, I know a ton of dudes in my airwing where their front offices did that. If you aren't enough of a leader to have that conversation with your people, then you shouldn't be sitting in the seat.

 

[EODDave]

Just talked to the VFA O4 detailer. He's been on the phone all day with guys who finished their Operation DH tours with EPs that did not pick up O5. They have no clue what happened. He said they will need a few weeks to crunch the data to figure it out. He said for guys over 20, after your second look if you are not picked up you will be separated 7 months after the second board results are released (just like any other 2xFOS). If you have less than 20, he didn't think it would be a problem for guys to stay in to get to 20.

The "we don't know what happened" sounds just like what they said a couple years ago with the O4 board. Anyway.... "I'm on a boat!" Heading on a Caribbean cruise for the week. Talk to you guys later.

 

[Pags]

Just talked to the VFA O4 detailer. He's been on the phone all day with guys who finished their Operation DH tours with EPs that did not pick up O5. They have no clue what happened. He said they will need a few weeks to crunch the data to figure it out. He said for guys over 20, after your second look if you are not picked up you will be separated 7 months after the second board results are released (just like any other 2xFOS). If you have less than 20, he didn't think it would be a problem for guys to stay in to get to 20.

The "we don't know what happened" sounds just like what they said a couple years ago with the O4 board. Anyway.... "I'm on a boat!" Heading on a Caribbean cruise for the week. Talk to you guys later.

If fewer O-4s made O-5 then I'd imagine that would mean decreased opportunity for O-4 in the coming years.

 

[IKE]

If fewer O-4s made O-5 then I'd imagine that would mean decreased opportunity for O-4 in the coming years.

O-5 URL selects over the last 3 years: 480, 487, 481 - no significant change. Like I said, the shift seemed to be from 1310 to 1110 this year.

 

[Pags]

O-5 URL selects over the last 3 years: 480, 487, 481 - no significant change. Like I said, the shift seemed to be from 1310 to 1110 this year.

Check around the 10-12 timeframe. During my shore tour there was a batch of O-4s who had EPs from an OP DH tour didn't screen. A year later and there were lots of us who didn't screen for O-4.

 

[Recovering LSO]

I have a ***really*** hard time getting my head around a DH who leaves that tour with an EP and gets left out in the cold when O-5 board comes around. Unless there is something else there, some negative language in the FITREP, or jackassery (DUI etc) - I just don't get it. I understand that promotions in the Navy are not rewards; however, IMO, if you successfully complete a stint as OPs, MO, or both, you've proven yourself (in most cases) capable of assuming greater responsibility associated with many/most O-5 billets.

 

[nittany03]

I have a ***really*** hard time getting my head around a DH who leaves that tour with an EP and gets left out in the cold when O-5 board comes around. Unless there is something else there, some negative language in the FITREP, or jackassery (DUI etc) - I just don't get it. I understand that promotions in the Navy are not rewards; however, IMO, if you successfully complete a stint as OPs, MO, or both, you've proven yourself (in most cases) capable of assuming greater responsibility associated with many/most O-5 billets.

Well, that's what everyone thought about the O-4 board a few years back, too. FRS instructors and multiple EP players shown the door . . . because reasons. You'd have a hard time convincing me that a not insignificant percentage of those folks were also "capable of assuming greater responsibility."

 

[Recovering LSO]

not trying to convince you of that.