Renegade One... Well said, I like your style.
My thoughts:
What would/could tip it? Good contemplative question. To tip it in Uncle Sam's favor...Probably a combination of more "balls to the wall" across the board, less "Hold me by the hand Daddy". A little "O Clubs open EVERY weekday", add some "stiff cocktails", and of course "bring it as hot as you can" for the break without repercussions. That would tip it.
In all seriousness, no single thing, really an open discussion. Balance of family life, salary, camaraderie, and flying a jet off a carrier. I'm on the fence not because of money, just contemplating the two possible paths with sea time and how the family would cope with more.