For those of you who like Big Picture/Strategic subjects

[Fog]

I strongly encourage you to find a copy of today's Wall Street Journal and that you read the editorial by Mark Helprin on the next-to-last page of Section 1. He forecasts that the PRC's strategic build-up of its navy & aerospace assets will allow it to neutralize our carriers & dominate the western Pacific & Taiwan in the next 10-15 years. It will then use its military might to have us evicted from Japan, South Korea, etc. as those nations take the only expedient option left to them. By 20-25 years from now, China will dominate the entire Pacific and establish a major land base/facility in Latin America from which they will project their new world dominance. The USA will be a 2nd rate power in fact by then.

I get the newsprint version of the WSJ - not the on-line one - so I can't link it. If someone here is an on-line subscriber, it may be possible to link it for all posters. It is a provocative & thoughtful column. For those who've read any of his novels, Helprin is no intellectual lightweight. FWIW.

 

[mmx1]

It's in today's Ebird for the AD folks. Alongside a piece by Richard Halloran summarizing doubt about Chinese naval capabilities.

Helprin is imaginative, but perhaps too much so. It reads like a novelized game of risk. He claims that England ceded Hong Kong out of a lack of military might and not say, the expiration of the lease and the decline of colonialism. He supposes that if Taiwan falls, South Korea, Australia, and Japan will simply roll over. For one, they don't have a cultural connection to reconciliation with the PRC that Taiwan does (if anything, they have a cultural wariness of China). They also possess not insignificant economic and military might. The Japanese, in particular, as a de-facto nuclear state would not take too kindly to flexed Chinese might.

And if we are so concerned with the Chinese ability to neutralize our carriers, why does he insist on buying more?

It's another call for an expensive cold war arms buildup on the back of a marginal scenario.

You can read the article at:
http://www.claremont.org/publications/crb/id.1721/article_detail.asp

 

[The Chief]

I have yet to read the WSJ article, intend to after I return from Philly.

A recent visit to the Far East, mostly vacation, some minor consultant tasks. This subject was on the minds of a lot of folks with which t I had the opportunity to talk. When stationed in Japan some 40+ years ago I taught English to a group of studetns from TODAI and others. The wheel has turned and those same students are now movers and shakers in Japan. I came away with the belief that all of the gentelmen I spoke with believe that the dominance of the U.S. in the region was on the wane and that Japan was being forced to move closer to the PRC, away from the U.S. Constantly cited was the "Okinawa" issue, to which we should pay close attention. Several folks said " .... so goes Okinawa, so goes the Far East ,,,," .

Interesting times in which we live.

 

[exhelodrvr]

That is a definite possibility; I think it depends primarily on China's economy.

 

[phrogdriver]

Interesting times in which we live.

Isn't that a Chinese curse? "May you live in interesting times."

Lack of carriers, sea power, or military might isn't going to cost us the world in a fight for hegemony with China. A stagnant economy, burdened by deficits outpacing GDP will.

 

[eas7888]

Isn't that a Chinese curse? "May you live in interesting times."

Lack of carriers, sea power, or military might isn't going to cost us the world in a fight for hegemony with China. A stagnant economy, burdened by dicifits outpacing GDP will.

The fact that china owns a great deal of our debt doesn't really work in our favor either.

 

[squorch2]

The fact that china owns a great deal of our debt doesn't really work in our favor either.

That's really akin to the old saw about you, the bank, and whose problem it is...

 

[eas7888]

That's really akin to the old saw about you, the bank, and whose problem it is...

Maybe I'm not reading it correctly, or maybe I'm just a dumb Army guy . . . or maybe both? I don't understand what you're saying.

 

[Treetop Flyer]

Them owning a lot of our debt would be a big problem for them in a conflict with us. They don't have much of a choice but to keep buying it to keep their currency artificially low.

 

[squorch2]

When you owe the bank $100,000, you have a problem. When you owe the bank $100,000,000, the bank has a problem.

 

[The Chief]

Lack of carriers, sea power, or military might isn't going to cost us the world in a fight for hegemony with China. A stagnant economy, burdened by deficits outpacing GDP will.

Recently, in a speech, Secretary Gates asked " ..... do we really need 11 (large deck) carriers." Given the opportunity my response would have been "To do what?"

Just me, but I would agree it is the economy. USSR failed because of their failed economy.

Some folks in Japan are pointing to Okinawa as A) Pivotal in the defense and stability in the region; or more recently B) The root cause for instability in the region causing Japan to be Nuclear Targets of North Korean, Chinese and to some extent, Russian forces. Further, some believe the 30 some odd thousand US troops in Korea prevent any meaningful solutions to the Korean problem(s).. I think that more and more the Japanese are looking to China as their key partner, replacing the US. Together Japan/China own a large part of our GDP. To some, the US is viewed as a colony, in the historical sense, where the US provides the raw materials to Japan and China and Japan and China send back finished goods. In turn, the US sends them our future, in the form of huge, huge debt. We now seem to kowtow to China on many fronts.

The objective of many in Japan is to remove all US Forces from Okinawa, at least major concentrations. Front and center each and every day the news broadcasts in Japan made it seem that way.

Yes, I think it was Uncle Ben that said something to the effect of "....neither a borrower nor lender be ... "

A friend, Chinese said "....the issue over Taiwan will be solved, if not in the next 100 years but surely the next 200 years."

 

[Flash]

China has some serious problems of it's own, ones that many people who talk up the threat of China conveniently seem to ignore all too often. Their one child policy is going to cause them serious population issues in 30 years, they already have a serious male/female imbalance, their economy is overly reliant on exports, which they are trying to fix but it is a huge task, their population has no outlet for their anger towards corruption and inequality and many in the region aren't exactly fond of them. And that is just scratching the surface.

They are a rising threat but not as big as many suppose.

 

[helolumpy]

The fact that china owns a great deal of our debt doesn't really work in our favor either.

That cuts both ways, what if we decide to not pay? That's a lot of money!

 

[eas7888]

That cuts both ways, what if we decide to not pay? That's a lot of money!

This is true, the consequences of us not paying might be dire for both countries, although I don't see the chain of events leading to those circumstances happening anytime soon. Then again, as my previous disclaimer states, I'm just an Army guy, they don't pay me to think

 

[helolumpy]

Recently, in a speech, Secretary Gates asked " ..... do we really need 11 (large deck) carriers."

IMO a lot of the points that Secretary Gates has been making is pointing to significant cutbacks in military spending in the near future.

Pretty soon the Army is going to come home from continous deployments in Iraq and they are going to present a bill to Congress to replace pretty much all the hardware they have. They have driven everything into the ground except field artillery and air-defense artillery.
That is going to be one astronomically large bill to recapitalize all the Army manuever forces.

The money to pay for that is going to come from our budget. The country doesn't have the cash to cover that bill, so these points are just the open salvo for the cutbacks that will soon be coming!!