FITREPs

[jollygreen07]

Having been around almost as long as Brett I'll emphatically second what he said, basing what you say on your relatively short experience with the promotion boards is not wise. Having been through several waves of folks being promoted if they fog a mirror to being a a hit or miss proposition I would be cautious advising folks years from promotion on what conditions they would face at their boards.

I know several folks who picked up LCDR on this board who deviated from the path and still made it based solely on the fact they had an EP their JO fleet tour. So, I don't think it's too much of a stretch to say what I said.

I know I'm just a no-nothing JO, Flash, but I do have the "guy going through it" perspective. I will concede that I should have qualified my original post with something like "RIGHT NOW you will not make LCDR with an MP..."

 

[squorch2]

Lots of moving parts in the promotion rates piece... the ongoing tug of war between aviation and sub/swo at the control grade level, plus current and future shortfalls in aviation accessions, plus airline hiring, plus extended time to train for jet types.

PERS tracks all this, and has forecasted an improvement in promotion rates from the 50% of a few years ago to >85% in the next couple years.

It's worthwhile to note that the lone factor that gets talked about on every single PPT, roadshow, and communication from PERS is that first tour EP performance is the primary breakout method. For them, sustained superior performance starts at that first tour, timing or external factors be damned.

 

[Flash]

?..I know I'm just a no-nothing JO, Flash, but I do have the "guy going through it" perspective. I will concede that I should have qualified my original post with something like "RIGHT NOW you will not make LCDR with an MP..."

Fortunately or unfortunately I am old enough to have seen several cycles which is why I use caution using the current cycle as a guide to what will happen in the future, so your qualification would have been appropriate.