Europe under extreme duress

[Gatordev]

Allegedly an anti-drone measure, although I’m not sure exactly how they thought it would effectively confuse drone sensors.

From what I have seen reported, it's more for AI target recce, much like the debris you mentioned. The tires supposedly breaking up the recognizable shape. What I haven't heard (and don't expect to get an accurate number in open source reporting) was how many successful hits were done by AI vs the cellular remote controllers. Or if the controllers put it on a terminal path after classifying a target and then switched it to autonomous. Some of the exact targeting of wing roots and engines underneath the fuselage lead me to believe that's more man-made targeting.

 

[Randy Daytona]

Fundamentally, Putin's ego.

It's what happens in authoritarian dictatorships where there is no democracy to reign Dear Leader in.

Do you think Putin is doing anything unusual in the context of Russia’s history?

Samuel Huntington stated in his noted work “Clash of the Civilizations” that NATO/Western Civilization would push east to the dividing line between Western Catholicism/Protestant and Russian Orthodox with the result Ukraine could possibly split in 2. Article was published in 1993, book in 1996.

1 other observation. Dr Zeihan predicted back in the early 2010’s that a combination of bad Russian demographics and Russian national security concerns would lead them to attack Ukraine within a decade.

 

[Lawman]

Not saying it's right.

No you didn’t, but I’m hearing it as an often repeated justification by people who are not arguing in good faith.

 

[Lawman]

Do you think Putin is doing anything unusual in the context of Russia’s history?

Samuel Huntington stated in his noted work “Clash of the Civilizations” that NATO/Western Civilization would push east to the dividing line between Western Catholicism/Protestant and Russian Orthodox with the result Ukraine could possibly split in 2. Article was published in 1993, book in 1996.

1 other observation. Dr Zeihan predicted back in the early 2010’s that a combination of bad Russian demographics and Russian national security concerns would lead them to attack Ukraine within a decade.

NATO did “PUSH” anything, they were dragged there by the countries who recognized their newly established independence wasn’t worth anything in the face of a belligerent Russia.

The first country that joined NATO post collapse was Poland. If you look up what happened in Warsaw it’s pretty easy to establish why.

Putin doesn’t view these countries as independent, his writings on the subject and public statements out of office reveal that. He sees them as vassal states who currently aren’t doing what they are supposed to be doing and their movement into the UE sphere of economic prosperity is illegitimate.

This has crap to do with a legitimate fear of NATO continuing East to subjugate Russia.

 

[Hair Warrior]

Do you think Putin is doing anything unusual in the context of Russia’s history?

No, and if you read Putin’s speeches at the Valdai, he goes into great detail on how very recent (post-1945) Western institutions and frameworks purport a seemingly established and incontrovertible “international order” which the East (Russia/China) do not concur with, and frequently point out Western hypocrises.

If you take the Russian view, in the context of human civilization’s 10,000+ year history, the timing is indeed very convenient that Western countries could freely conquer, colonize, and exploiit desired territory from 1492-1945 and then abruptly freeze the system and claim that style of national/ethnic expansion is no longer allowed to happen.

The Spanish-American War (1898) and ensuing Philippine-American War (1898-1902) would be looked at questionably if they took place today and resulted in similar territorial possession.

 

[Hair Warrior]

In the history of the world, though, this is NOT solely a Western thing. The Moors/Berbers conquered Spain and later were thrown out. Asiatic steppe peoples (Huns, Magyars, Bulgars, etc) flowed Westward and conquered parts of Europe. The Ottomans invaded the Balkans. China, Korea, and Japan have done their fair share of conquering and expansion.

I take a pretty Hobbesian view of human nature, so Putin invading Ukraine is not surprising to me, though that does not mean I don’t support Ukraine’s right to fight back.

 

[Random8145]

This has crap to do with a legitimate fear of NATO continuing East to subjugate Russia.

I'd think it is both. The Russians are imperialists themselves but they also are likely still paranoid about the West after WWII Germany. So while they probably do not fear NATO itself, the fear is a NATO or NATO-friendly democratic government or dictator-run country could at some point fall prey to a takeover by an Adolf Hitler. So their solution is to control such countries themselves, with governments and leaders that answer strictly to Moscow.

 

[Lawman]

I'd think it is both. The Russians are imperialists themselves but they also are likely still paranoid about the West after WWII Germany. So while they probably do not fear NATO itself, the fear is a NATO or NATO-friendly democratic government or dictator-run country could at some point fall prey to a takeover by an Adolf Hitler. So their solution is to control such countries themselves, with governments and leaders that answer strictly to Moscow.

If they are truly operating under such an assumption, then the west is completely justified in the statements that Ukraine is only the beginning and we should be dumping wholesale into this to avoid the future conflict.

If they aren’t operating that way, then we don’t need to entertain that justification as an acceptable reason we should consider it from their point of view, this is strictly a land grab with a bad excuse, and we should much the same oppose the departure of 70 years of normalized world behavior by a belligerent expansionist power.

Either way they want to sell it to themselves, what isn’t necessary is the wholesale acceptance and parroting of those lame reasons by our own people.

 

[BigRed389]

In the history of the world, though, this is NOT solely a Western thing. The Moors/Berbers conquered Spain and later were thrown out. Asiatic steppe peoples (Huns, Magyars, Bulgars, etc) flowed Westward and conquered parts of Europe. The Ottomans invaded the Balkans. China, Korea, and Japan have done their fair share of conquering and expansion.

I take a pretty Hobbesian view of human nature, so Putin invading Ukraine is not surprising to me, though that does not mean I don’t support Ukraine’s right to fight back.

And at one point we were all a bunch of backwards ass monkey learning that tying a pointy rock to a stick was a useful way to kill something.

The thing is, “we” in the sense of being a species, had a valid excuse for being aggressively expansionist assholes in those times. Now? Not so much. Even under sanctions Russians aren’t dying en masse by freezing in winter or starving to death.

Russia’s paranoia also makes no sense from even just a security standpoint. They have nukes, as they love to keep reminding everybody. Aggression using nukes is actually counterproductive over time, as it incentivizes the “not haves” to get nukes of their own.