Europe under extreme duress

[Flash]

Maybe as a third or fourth order effect. If we are serious about them winning the war (whatever that objectively means) and not involving Russia in a never ending quagmire, then we should have given them more capability faster. We've rolled out HIMARS, ATACMS, Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles, Bradleys, Abrams, and now Vipers as we blew past multiple "red lines".

You also have to take into account the Ukrainian's ability and capacity to properly utilize the equipment, and that is a very big factor in our decisions on what and when to give them.

On the other hand, ensuring that our domestic civil society keeps running directly impacts our national security interests and there are plenty of vulnerabilities that could be mitigated with that money here at home. Just one man's opinion.

I was thinking we could start with a couple tangible things like border security, critical infrastructure decay, industrial base revitalization (ships would be a good place to start), and cybersecurity. Once we have those licked, we can move on to the wicked problems like poverty, hunger, and parity in the NFL.

Laws passed and bills proposed within the last 3 years have addressed or attempted to address those exact issues to include the misnamed 'Inflation Reduction Act' and the recent border security bill, among others, that was passed by the Senate of was DOA in the House of Representatives.

 

[Flash]

The latest fear porn:

Russia has obtained a 'troubling' emerging anti-satellite weapon, the White House says

The White House publicly confirmed on Thursday that Russia has obtained a “troubling” emerging anti-satellite weapon but said it cannot directly cause “physical destruction” on Earth. White House national security spokesman John Kirby said U.S. intelligence officials have information that...

news.yahoo.com

Not sure I would call it 'fear porn' if the threat is real.

 

[WhiskeySierra6]

What do you think of the proposition that the resources we've put into Ukraine's military brings high return on investment WRT the significant effect it has had on the military capacity of NATO's primary threat? In terms of costs imposed on Russia vs risk to US and NATO, the conventional wisdom is that it's money well spent. Thoughts?

I am 100% in alignment with the conventional wisdom WRT ROI particularly when you add in the fact that a non-zero amount of the arms provided were going to incur demil costs anyway (double bonus for us). My issues come from the expenditures on "nation building/sustaining" efforts or really anything not directly related to fighting the war. I think using those resources domestically creates a superior ROI.

 

[taxi1]

I am 100% in alignment with the conventional wisdom WRT ROI particularly when you add in the fact that a non-zero amount of the arms provided were going to incur demil costs anyway (double bonus for us). My issues come from the expenditures on "nation building/sustaining" efforts or really anything not directly related to fighting the war. I think using those resources domestically creates a superior ROI.

If you look at where Russia is sending their missiles and one-way drones, they're attacking the civilian population and infrastructure. Our efforts to keep the nation afloat directly counters that.

It's the center of gravity in the fight. Both sides see it.

 

[number9]

Last time I checked, we have an incredible amount of debt that requires us to spend more on interest than defense, and absolute best case scenario is that it *only* doubles in the next decade. But sure, let's just keep thinking we have plenty of money for every wish list item and keep adding all kinds of new things to our budget without even discussing what we're going to cut.

The cupboard isn't bare. We can afford to do both, we -- and by that I mean our elected representatives -- just choose not to.

 

[robav8r]

Not sure I would call it 'fear porn' if the threat is real.

Then I would expect a hearty, thorough, integrated discussion with ALL of our NATO allies outlining the short and long term strategy to counter this “threat.” Not simply used as the latest tactic to pass more funding.

 

[JTS11]

Then I would expect a hearty, thorough, integrated discussion with ALL of our NATO allies outlining the short and long term strategy to counter this “threat.” Not simply used as the latest tactic to pass more funding.

I'm assuming that that has already been happening, but what do I know...

What was weird was the way the congressman (Mike Rogers) lit his hair on fire and announced via a cryptic tweet to the public about this threat. Kind of strange if you ask me.

 

[WhiskeySierra6]

You also have to take into account the Ukrainian's ability and capacity to properly utilize the equipment, and that is a very big factor in our decisions on what and when to give them.

I understand there are nuances to timelines based on ability to utilize but, in my mildly- informed opinion, that was not the pacing timeline factor for most of these capes.

Laws passed and bills proposed within the last 3 years have addressed or attempted to address those exact issues to include the misnamed 'Inflation Reduction Act' and the recent border security bill, among others, that was passed by the Senate of was DOA in the House of Representatives.

Inflation Reduction Act Guidebook | Clean Energy | The White House

Download the Inflation Reduction Act Guidebook On August 16, 2022, President Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act into law, marking the most significant action Congress has taken on clean energy and climate change in the nation’s history. With the stroke of his pen, the President redefined...

www.whitehouse.gov

I browsed the above link for about an hour. BLUF: Of the 119 entries I found 2 that would move the needle for the issues I referenced (Transmission Facility Financing $2B over 10 years and Advanced Industrial Facilities Deployment Program $5.8B over 4 years). The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law from 2021 is probably a better example but getting into that would derail this conversation faster than train tracks in East Palestine, OH.

The "border security bill" is DOA in the House because it provides $90B+ in foreign aid and $22.5B for border security which was kind of my point. Source

 

[JTS11]

The "border security bill" is DOA in the House because it provides $90B+ in foreign aid and $22.5B for border security which was kind of my point. Source

I thought the Senate agreed to send over the border bill as a standalone, and the Speaker said it's DOA bc a certain someone told him to.

The Senate GOP hung Sen Lankford (OK) out to dry. He's one of the most conservative Senators, but alas it's apparently more useful as a campaign issue.😢

 

[Flash]

Then I would expect a hearty, thorough, integrated discussion with ALL of our NATO allies outlining the short and long term strategy to counter this “threat.” Not simply used as the latest tactic to pass more funding.

I can't speak to the motivations of the person who publicized the info, but the threat has been acknowledged as real and you can safely assume that the threat and mitigations/counters to it are almost certainly being integrated into our space strategy, that includes allies as appropriate.

I understand there are nuances to timelines based on ability to utilize but, in my mildly- informed opinion, that was not the pacing timeline factor for most of these capes.

Politics certainly was a big factor in many of the capes we've provided them so far but giving them more than they can handle in a short amount of time would stress their capacity and capability, that is the part of your claim I was addressing.

...The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law from 2021 is probably a better example but getting into that would derail this conversation faster train tracks in East Palestine, OH.

That is why I said "among others".

The "border security bill" is DOA in the House because it provides $90B+ in foreign aid and $22.5B for border security which was kind of my point. Source

That originated with the Republican demand to tie border security and support to Ukraine and Israel, but then the House nixed it the moment the Senate delivered. Queue the frustration from many of the Republican Senators who put in the hard work only to get the Heisman because someone thinks border insecurity will get them elected.

As much as I dislike Congressional politics from the grandstanding to horse-trading that is a democratic republic at work, even if it doesn't always work.

 

[ChuckMK23]

In other news, Mr. Putin needs his O2 mask fitted!

https://x.com/SputnikInt/status/1760681660931350975?s=20

 

[ChuckMK23]

Latest from ISW just dropped....

 

[JTS11]

It appears that RUS has lost another A-50 AWACS type plane. 2 down with 5 or 6 left. That's on top of them losing 7 Su-34 and Su-35s over the last week.

Now let's get them some fucking arty rounds Congress.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1761096851594363258

 

[sevenhelmet]

Sucks to suck.

 

[taxi1]

If certain folks could get their heads straight on funding support, we could clean out the Russians so they're just spear chucking. Damn it pisses me off.