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Europe under extreme duress

villanelle

villanelle

Nihongo dame desu
Contributor
I came here for analysis on this forum because I know there are so many history and political science, and whatever-the-fuck-else-you-might-call-this-situation experts here, but it likely wouldn't be graduate thesis level detail that makes my eyes glaze over and references history I don't know.. (That's my way of saying I don't have that expertise, so I'm coming at this from a place of ignorance.)

But might this somehow be an attempt by Putin to create an explanation that at least somewhat saves face for losing /not winning in Ukraine? He didn't lose; Russia was sabotaged by Prigozhen, et al. Sort of like, IIRC, Hitler claimed Germany didn't so much lose WWI as they did fall victim to a pesky Jewish cabal, or whatever?

I guess I just can't make sense of Putin just letting Prigozhen walk away from this, which makes Putin look both foolish and weak. It's insanity, and if this was the plot of a movie or TV show, I'd dismiss it as entirely implausible and too silly even for suspended disbelief.
 
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nittany03

nittany03

Recovering NFO. Herder of Programmers.
pilot
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
villanelle said:
But might this somehow be an attempt by Putin to create an explanation that at least somewhat saves face for losing /not winning in Ukraine? He didn't lose; Russia was sabotaged by Prigozhen, et al. Sort of like, IIRC, Hitler claimed Germany didn't so much lose WWI as they did fall victim to a pesky Jewish cabal, or whatever?

I guess I just can't make sense of Putin just letting Prigozhen walk away from this, which makes Putin look both foolish and weak. It's insanity, and if this was the lot of a movie or TV show, I'd dismiss it as entirely implausible and too silly even for suspended disbelief.
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TV has to make sense. Real life doesn't. And in real life, there are a whole hell of a lot less people playing 5D chess than on TV, because 5D chess is just how TV makes things make sense and makes the main characters interesting.

As the Brits would say: "cock-up before conspiracy."
 
M

Mirage

Well-Known Member
pilot
villanelle said:
I came her for analysis on this forom because I know there are so many history and political science, and whatever-the-fuck-else-you-might-call-this-situation experts here, but it likely wouldn't be graduate thesis level detail that makes my eyes glaze over and references history I don't know.. (That's my way of saying I don't have that expertise, so I'm coming at this from a place of ignorance.)

But might this somehow be an attempt by Putin to create an explanation that at least somewhat saves face for losing /not winning in Ukraine? He didn't lose; Russia was sabotaged by Prigozhen, et al. Sort of like, IIRC, Hitler claimed Germany didn't so much lose WWI as they did fall victim to a pesky Jewish cabal, or whatever?

I guess I just can't make sense of Putin just letting Prigozhen walk away from this, which makes Putin look both foolish and weak. It's insanity, and if this was the lot of a movie or TV show, I'd dismiss it as entirely implausible and too silly even for suspended disbelief.
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I think it's wayyyy too early to say with any certainty how this ends. Don't try to make sense of why Putin is letting Prigozhen walk away. That remains to be seen. Also don't assume Putin has lost or won't win in Ukraine. The war is far from over, and as of now, Russia took a significant bit of territory and has it heavily defended. Perhaps that's all the win he needs.
 
robav8r

robav8r

Well-Known Member
None
Contributor
HSMPBR said:
Our government had no idea A1C Texeira was leaking TS to a gamer chat server for four months.

It has no idea how many retired FOGOs are getting paid a lot of money to advise foreign entities.

It pays $12000 for those AH-64 valves and no idea how much more for whatever other stupid parts.

It pretty much only knows who is delinquent on their dental screening (and Annual Cyber Awareness Challenge). There will probably be no clean sweep of nuclear trigger pullers.
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FIFY . . . .
 
R

Random8145

Registered User
I don't think this is an act by Putin because it makes him look way too weak. Putin may not be allowing Prigozhin to walk away in the long-term, but in the short-term, what could he do? Arrest him? His forces it seemed were at risk of not being able to stop a coup, let alone try to arrest the guy. So to kill him, he'll have to wait some. He's probably playing the game of, "Nice doggy" until he can find a big rock. I wonder what the heck Prigozhin is thinking if he thinks he won't be looking over his shoulder for the rest of his days.
 
taxi1

taxi1

Well-Known Member
pilot
Random8145 said:
I don't think this is an act by Putin because it makes him look way too weak. Putin may not be allowing Prigozhin to walk away in the long-term, but in the short-term, what could he do? Arrest him?
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It’s a good exercise to enumerate some options here, accepting some serious profound ignorance of what the heck was actually going on.
  1. Putin could have gone Highway of Death on the move towards Moscow.
  2. Circle the wagons and hold him off at the beltway
  3. Order the troops in Ukraine to turn 180 degrees and fight the other way
  4. Go into exile in Paris
  5. Hear his issues and address them
  6. Execute a delaying action until he can let him fall out a window
  7. Unleash a nuke to get everyone’s attention
  8. ??
Russia doesn’t appear to be much of a modern state at the moment. Preghozin reminds me of an Afghan warlord.

Wish our Russian spy would drop in to comment.
 
M

Mirage

Well-Known Member
pilot
Griz882 said:
This is an interesting take, but I’d be cautious about making Prigozhin some kind of a new-age nationalist out to save Russia from Putin. He pushing for power, not the betterment of the Russian people.
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You know, the cynic in me leans towards agreeing with you. But I'm having trouble figuring out how this gained Prigozhin power. Seems if that was his goal he would have continued to Moscow. As it is, he seems to have accepted a deal that has him without an army in Belarus.
 
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