Interesting. Did you get the sense that the Scots were generally in favor of staying in the EU if they voted for independence? Was the Spanish fear linked to their own Catalonian independence movement? It is fascinating to me, after the whole EU experiment seemed somewhat stable, that world events have added a fairly strong centrifugal forces at work in Europe. This mirrors a trend across North Africa and the Middle East of increasing fractionalization and dissolution of the conventional nation state. Westphalian principles are disintegrating.
Yes, the thinking was that Spain wouldn't support a play by Scotland to join the EU because it might make the Catalonians feel like if Scotland could do it, so could they. Spending time in Catalonia was interesting. Catalonian flags everywhere, and very few Spanish, and if I mentioned being in Spain, I was several times corrected that no, I was in Catalonia.
I did get the sense (but this was just one girls' conversation with a few groups of Scots, plus reading a lot of election propaganda pamphlets) that most who were in favor of independence wanted to stay in the EU, which makes/d sense. It would have meant much of the work was done on day 1--currency, basic rules, trade agreements, etc.
This was a few years ago and so much has changed since then. The EU is looking a lot less attractive, and that was even somewhat true before the refugee crisis. OTOH, it would give the Scots a bit of a safety net while they put together a government.
I'm still not sure that the Scots are willing to take such a massive leap of faith. The Devil you know, and all that. If someone were able to negotiate (and I don't even know who that someone would be, or with whom they would or could negotiate) and come up with some sort of loose template, at least, for what things would look like post-independence, I think they'd have a much better chance with an independence vote. "Let's just leave and we'll figure out out once we are separated", isn't exactly confidence inspiring. Of course, it is in the best interest of the UK to *not* hash out any details because the ambiguity and uncertainty is what helps them keep what they want.
Last vote the UK was promising to pay more attention (and money) to improve things in Scotland, and I think that placated some Scots. I don't know enough to know whether they've made good on those promises, but if they haven't, some might view that as having given them one last chance, on which Her Majesty didn't make good.
