Europe under extreme duress

[sevenhelmet]

A lot of this has been pretty well gamed out and baked into our OPLANs. Recommend taking a look if you have access.

How do you see those OPLANs being used? Or a better-phrased question, how do you think our political leadership will blunt military strategy if China attacks Taiwan? How about invasion?

Personally, I see our response being one of two things- impotent and flaccid, or hysterical and over reactive. The latter is harder to predict in terms of what we’ll do militarily. Blockade, maybe? I’m years removed from having access to those kinds of plans, so I’m not really “up” on the situation. That said, I do know China is as bad and worse than the general public hears about through MSM.

That book was uniquely bad, and I was surprised at that given the authors.

Same here. I don’t even recall finishing it. Started reasonably well, but went rapidly downhill.

 

[Brett327]

I stated that IF we went to direct war with China and ever got close to winning, which in my opinion would necessarily mean the end of the CCP,

I don’t think that’s an assumption many people looking at this seriously would share.

 

[Brett327]

How do you see those OPLANs being used? Or a better-phrased question, how do you think our political leadership will blunt military strategy if China attacks Taiwan? How about invasion?

That’s the million dollar question, isn’t it? Depends on who is in office, what kind of advice they’re being given, posture of allies, etc.

 

[sevenhelmet]

That’s the million dollar question, isn’t it? Depends on who is in office, what kind of advice they’re being given, posture of allies, etc.

It is. I personally think it would be awesome to see some maneuvering toward a preemptive coalition as a deterrent (the exact parameters of which I will leave to more seasoned experts), but from what I can see, I expect partisanship on this side of the pond will continue to weaken our approach.

I hope I’m wrong about that.

 

[Gatordev]

It is. I personally think it would be awesome to see some maneuvering toward a preemptive coalition as a deterrent (the exact parameters of which I will leave to more seasoned experts), but from what I can see, I expect partisanship on this side of the pond will continue to weaken our approach.

While not "the" answer, The Quad is part of that partnership plan. Thinking out loud, what I wonder is how much stamina the Quad would have. Removing the US from the discussion for a moment, 2 of the 3 members have fairly advanced tech to fight with, but not a very deep bench, while the third has a larger fighting base, but older tech (for now).

Whomever is in office at the time, I wonder how much political and public will power there would be on India's side after the shooting started and everyone started taking losses.

 

[sevenhelmet]

Whomever is in office at the time, I wonder how much political and public will power there would be on India's side after the shooting started and everyone started taking losses.

I don’t think India is taking our side on this one, unless China oversteps (to them) in a big way.

 

[Mirage]

I don’t think that’s an assumption many people looking at this seriously would share.

You're pretty good at telling other people you think they're wrong while providing no other info. Would love to get some actual content from you.. like, for example, how you think we could end a true war with China and the CCP stays in control. It does me (and other readers) no good for you to tell me I'm wrong but not provide any insight for me to consider that I might have missed.

 

[Griz882]

I don’t think India is taking our side on this one, unless China oversteps (to them) in a big way.

I’ll cautiously disagree on this one. India, already a regional powerhouse, would love to displace China as both the regional hegemon and a major player on the international stage….gaining a larger share of that juicy American market would be a bonus as well.

 

[Hotdogs]

IIf they do choose war, I think they will take Taiwan rather quickly and we will be forced to decide if we want to escalate to try to win or let them have it. If we choose escalation, it will be a very dangerous and unwise path that could easily end in mutual destruction.

That all said, this is not my area of expertise/study at all.

That is high unlikely and it’s not going to surprise anyone if they chose to do so. The I&W will be very strong if they choose that course of action. A mountainous island state with >20 million people and 13,000 square miles is a challenge for any aggressor to seize. Taipei alone is roughly the size of Chicago population-wise and has a more dense Urban environment. We’re talking about something 5-10 times the size of the Normandy landings.

It took the U.S. about 3 decades and hundreds of thousands of US lives to get “average” on amphibious ops. I am not holding my breath the PLAN can do it at distance while taking precision shots from an opposing force.

 

[Brett327]

You're pretty good at telling other people you think they're wrong while providing no other info. Would love to get some actual content from you..

I've already suggested some reading for you. Setting that aside, there's plenty of open source material on deterrence theory, conflict de-escalation, offramps and more. Consider talking to a planner in the appropriate security environment, or referencing your own JPME coursework. More on point, and as I've already referenced, keeping the Chinese government from perceiving a Taiwan Strait conflict as an existential threat to the regime isn't an idea I came up with - It's boilerplate conventional wisdom and foundational in our own OPLANs. The logic therein should be fairly self-evident, given our conversation here.

Though I hate to muddy the waters, our experience during the Korean War vis-à-vis China should be instructive.

 

[sevenhelmet]

I’ll cautiously disagree on this one. India, already a regional powerhouse, would love to displace China as both the regional hegemon and a major player on the international stage….gaining a larger share of that juicy American market would be a bonus as well.

Maybe. While I don't entirely disagree with your premise, I get the sense India is much closer to partnering with other nations- including China- to disrupt American economic/dollar hegemony than it is to allying with America specifically against China, economically or otherwise.

A long way of saying I don't trust India's intentions. Doubly so if a military conflict were to arise over Taiwan (or otherwise involving China). The only way I see India aligning with the US is if they see a bigger direct threat from China, e.g. a major economic threat, or another bigger border clash. I'm not sure India cares that much about who governs Taiwan.

 

[Griz882]

Maybe. While I don't entirely disagree with your premise, I get the sense India is much closer to partnering with other nations- including China- to disrupt American economic/dollar hegemony than it is to allying with America specifically against China, economically or otherwise.

A long way of saying I don't trust India's intentions. Doubly so if a military conflict were to arise over Taiwan (or otherwise involving China).

No argument here…thus my “cautiously.” India should be accepted, but not necessarily trusted as you note.

 

[sevenhelmet]

More on point, and as I've already referenced, keeping the Chinese government from perceiving a Taiwan Strait conflict as an existential threat to the regime isn't an idea I came up with - It's boilerplate conventional wisdom and foundational in our own OPLANs. The logic therein should be fairly self-evident, given our conversation here.

Though I hate to muddy the waters, our experience during the Korean War vis-à-vis China should be instructive.

This is a good point. Similar to how the world is (finally) starting to push back against an increasingly aggressive China, building TOO strong of an alliance to protect Taiwan/SCS might send the wrong message and instigate the conflict we would prefer never happen.

 

[Mirage]

I've already suggested some reading for you. Setting that aside, there's plenty of open source material on deterrence theory, conflict de-escalation, offramps and more. Consider talking to a planner in the appropriate security environment, or referencing your own JPME coursework. More on point, and as I've already referenced, keeping the Chinese government from perceiving a Taiwan Strait conflict as an existential threat to the regime isn't an idea I came up with - It's boilerplate conventional wisdom and foundational in our own OPLANs. The logic therein should be fairly self-evident, given our conversation here.

Though I hate to muddy the waters, our experience during the Korean War vis-à-vis China should be instructive.

I am an airline pilot now. I don't have access to OPLANs.

Most of your post is avoiding the premise that our entire conversation is based upon, which is that we are at direct war with China. That wasn't the case in Korea, nor is bringing up things like deterrence theory relevant.

Standing by for any opinions or insights you might have, other than just trashing other people who want to contribute to a constructive conversation.

 

[Brett327]

Standing by for any opinions or insights you might have, other than just trashing other people who want to contribute to a constructive conversation.

If you think that someone suggesting that you may want to reconsider your assumptions is "trashing" you, particularly when you've admitted a lack of expertise on this topic, then I'm not sure what else to offer you in the way of meaningful discourse.