@ Slob:
Excuse the language. The point to be had was that no one knows what your chances are, and neither will you until you apply. Yes, there are certain factors that can reduce your chances and some that can increase them. We don't know your whole story. We won't see your package. Neither you nor anyone else will know if you can pick up a SNA of SNFO slot until the board publishes it decision. Simple as that.
So instead of basing whether or not to apply on what you or we think your chances are, I'm suggesting you just apply and the chips will fall where they may. That's what every one of us that are winged, in flight school and awaiting a decision did. We applied for what we wanted to do. For some of us, it worked out. For others, it didn't or it won't.
Despite what's in your package, there is alot you can't control and we don't know about that will affect your "chances": needs of the Navy, waivers, timing, board composition, board precept and a whole host of other things.
Bottom line is there is only one guarantee: You've got absolutely ZERO chance of flying something with NAVY printed on the side if you don't apply.
Apologies for blowing a gasket. It wasn't directed at you personally, but at the "what are my chances" posts in general.
Again, you've already made the decision that Naval Aviation is a career you are interested in. My advice is not to worry about what chance you have of getting into a commissioning program, but worry about how to best represent yourself to the board and getting any waivers you might need.
*gasket replaced*
Bubba Out. There are some balls that need calling...
