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It's finally happening . . . Big Navy is canning the stack rank FITREP/Eval

BACONATOR

Well-Known Member
pilot
Contributor
Are you talking about the "silver bullet" program to extend one person past 12 months? Or people inside 11 just running out the clock? For the former, it's not fair to the careerists for a super senior LT in the squadron to inhabit the top of the FITREP pool for an extra 12 plus months.

I'd argue the people doing extracurricular work to separate at MSR aren't giving a many fucks about their shore tour high water paper or severance dollars. They just want to leave honorably at the end of their service obligations and not get stuck being jerked around by Millington.

And the guys trying to milk out every dollar out of Uncle Sugar are gonna take the bonus early, take the boat orders, and then cross their fingers they don't make DH.
What the hell is the silver bullet program?
 

DanMa1156

Is it baseball season yet?
pilot
Contributor
Was this some sort of a drug deal between PERS and front offices in the HTs? Because I simply haven't heard of this in the jet VTs, and lots of guys are getting extended without these caveats.

I would love to see it in writing (e-mail or otherwise) that they would accept non-competitive FITREPs. I think everyone understands what is likely to happen once someone says they're getting out, but for it to be written down, suggested, or directed by someone to a CO stinks to high heaven.

You don't get severance if you resign or submit a don't pick me letter, but I don't understand how PERS could enforce those conditions unless they're holding those PRD extensions hostage pending Letters of Intent or don't pick me letters being submitted. Besides, once you FOS it's very difficult for the Navy to PCS someone because they no longer meet retainability. They still can do it for a "career-enhancing" billet but in my experience they ask you if that's something you'd like to do.

I think those dudes to talk to a JAG. Something about this whole deal seems off.

Are you talking about the "silver bullet" program to extend one person past 12 months? Or people inside 11 just running out the clock? For the former, it's not fair to the careerists for a super senior LT in the squadron to inhabit the top of the FITREP pool for an extra 12 plus months.

I'd argue the people doing extracurricular work to separate at MSR aren't giving a many fucks about their shore tour high water paper or severance dollars. They just want to leave honorably at the end of their service obligations and not get stuck being jerked around by Millington.

And the guys trying to milk out every dollar out of Uncle Sugar are gonna take the bonus early, take the boat orders, and then cross their fingers they don't make DH.

I didn't say their page 13 included they would have to take a lower FITREP; I am under the impression that was a handshake deal with the front office. I am 100% under the impression they all had to sign a statement of understanding / page 13 / some document that waived their ability to compete for O-4 on active duty and subsequently they also had to forefeit their severance. Of the 3 guys in my squadron who I have seen take this deal, all are happy to have done it thus far. They all avoided the boat which was their overall goal. They were extended not just into their 12 month window, but extended to the actual MSR date and that's when they are getting out. At least one of them is planning on joining the reserves. If I find something different out, I'll post here.
 

BACONATOR

Well-Known Member
pilot
Contributor
I didn't say their page 13 included they would have to take a lower FITREP; I am under the impression that was a handshake deal with the front office. I am 100% under the impression they all had to sign a statement of understanding / page 13 / some document that waived their ability to compete for O-4 on active duty and subsequently they also had to forefeit their severance. Of the 3 guys in my squadron who I have seen take this deal, all are happy to have done it thus far. They all avoided the boat which was their overall goal. They were extended not just into their 12 month window, but extended to the actual MSR date and that's when they are getting out. At least one of them is planning on joining the reserves. If I find something different out, I'll post here.
That sounds about as illegal as marines defying title 10 and "continuing" 2xFOSes... for the individual I completely understand the motivation and would do the same to avoid the boat. But I don't think it's legal to make that deal and avoid paying someone a severance...
 

nittany03

Recovering NFO. Herder of Programmers.
pilot
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
Why don't you precisely define what's wrong with it? In its most basic form, it allows a RS to easily and quantifiably compare a group of individuals. That's ultimately what a screen board is, right? We're managing a finite amount of opportunity based on a set of standardized subjective assessments.

First, the stack rank. A summary group doesn't need to be set up against each other. They may or may not ever compete against each other in the same tank. So it answers a question no one is asking. The board isn't convened to answer how LT X compares against LT Y of VAQ-69. The board is convened to answer how LT X compares against all the other LTs in the tank at that time. Yes, I realize that the savvy RS can use distance from their cumulative average to break this out. Yes, I understand that the RS can use the writeup to explain this. Yet when people are talking about whether someone broke out or not, it's not "wow, this person got a really great #2 EP or ranked MP, but that's cool, because the ready room is baller." And we've discussed earlier in this thread that the RS's hypothetical option to not give anyone the EP in actuality amounts to a headshot for the whole summary group. So now you could argue that in reality, if not in theory, we've created a system where someone has to get that #1 ticket, even if they're just the least-putzy putz in the room. So why bother?

We're betting that in the event of a logjam at the top or a clownshow, a) the RS will be savvy enough to write good paper, b) the briefer will be savvy enough to convey this to the board, and c) the board will take note. I've never been in a tank; maybe all this happens every time, puppies and rainbows fall from the sky, and no one screws up ever. But in my mind, this introduces a lot of needless complexity. The solution to this is to can the stack rank. Allow the reporting senior to explicitly tell the board how that officer ranks amongst ALL the officers of that grade they've served with. "This LT is in the 95th percentile of all the LTs I've served with in my 18-year career. Promote accordingly." Boom. Done. That is the question that needs to be answered when the board meets. So create a FITREP that directly answers that question. No robbing Peter to pay Paul if you have a group of rock stars. No inadvertently crowning the king or queen of schmucks. No tea leaves necessary.

This leads into the second problem. Summary group sizes. An officer's actual fitness or non-fitness for promotion has everything to do with their skills, personality, and experience, and precisely fuck-all to do with the number of peers they serve with. This is another artificiality we force on ourselves by using the summary group stack-rank as a discriminator. A 1 of 1 ticket shouldn't have any more weight than a 1 of 45. What should matter is the assessed promotion potential of that particular individual. The solution to this problem is the same as the first one, and it also eliminates a whole category of bullshit detailing games.

Finally, ticket length. A 12-month EP is viewed as a bigger feather in one's cap than a 10-month EP. I'll grant some validity to this one, because it's one thing to perform in a challenging job for a long period of time, and another to muddle through and leave right before the wheels fall off. But again, factors outside the individual's control rear their ugly head. We shouldn't have to shuffle people in and out of billets for the FITREP 500. We should let the reporting senior assess them individually, and if time in a key billet is part of that calculus, fine. If the board wants to see experience in a given billet, fine; put it in the precept and let the reporting seniors manage their people accordingly.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. When it comes to FITREPs, I think the Marines have it wired to a much greater degree than we do. Independent assessment like I just beat to death, and two sets of eyeballs on the end product. I can't think of any other area in Naval Aviation where "good enough" is seen as OK. Yet that seems to be all anyone has to hang their hat on about the current system. If you're building an aircraft, you design it to fly beat-up, battle-damaged, and able to handle a certain amount of EPs and still bring the crew home. If you're designing a piece of software, you don't just stop before you've addressed error handling, input error, and guarding against hacking. You find the corner cases and make the system deal with them gracefully. And when you find bugs, you patch them. You don't just say "it's good enough."
 

Recovering LSO

Suck Less
pilot
Contributor
Yes, I realize that the savvy RS can use distance from their cumulative average to break this out. Yes, I understand that the RS can use the writeup to explain this.
Do you?
I've never been in a tank
Noted.
Allow the reporting senior to explicitly tell the board how that officer ranks amongst ALL the officers of that grade they've served with. "This LT is in the 95th percentile of all the LTs I've served with in my 18-year career. Promote accordingly."
Nothing stopping a reporting senior from writing his/her FITREPS like this now.
This leads into the second problem. Summary group sizes. An officer's actual fitness or non-fitness for promotion has everything to do with their skills, personality, and experience, and precisely fuck-all to do with the number of peers they serve with.
You either believe production tours are critical and competitive, or you don't.
We should let the reporting senior assess them individually, and if time in a key billet is part of that calculus, fine.
Huh.... Is that not happening now?
I can't think of any other area in Naval Aviation where "good enough" is seen as OK.
You paid any attention to the number of guys getting relieved for coming up short professionally (i.e., not knucklehead misconduct)? If you want to have a serious discussion about "good enough" then let's talk about the DH screen rates for VFA/VAQ. But, that's about culture and retention, not this supposed great satan of fitreps.

The current system has bugs and features. Could it be managed better? Sure. Does that require turning the system on its head? No, I don't think so. It requires some education for all involved, and moral courage on the part of reporting seniors.
 

SlickAg

Registered User
pilot
I didn't say their page 13 included they would have to take a lower FITREP; I am under the impression that was a handshake deal with the front office.
I would love to see it in writing (e-mail or otherwise) that they would accept non-competitive FITREPs. I think everyone understands what is likely to happen once someone says they're getting out, but for it to be written down, suggested, or directed by someone to a CO stinks to high heaven.

I never said the FITREP thing was in the Page 13, just curious if it was "guidance" from some other entity.

I am 100% under the impression they all had to sign a statement of understanding / page 13 / some document that waived their ability to compete for O-4 on active duty and subsequently they also had to forefeit their severance. Of the 3 guys in my squadron who I have seen take this deal, all are happy to have done it thus far. They all avoided the boat which was their overall goal. They were extended not just into their 12 month window, but extended to the actual MSR date and that's when they are getting out.

The only way to opt out of O-4 is to either not be around for the board or send a letter to the board saying they would like to be removed from consideration. Even if you've dropped your letter, you're still considered. So if they signed a Page 13 saying they understood that sending a don't pick me letter meant they waiver their severance, that's the command doing a CYA, and that's fine. But anything beyond that reeks. Getting your PRD extended to your MSR is awesome, but being inside of 12 months is really just as good because they can't PCS you due to retainability.

At least one of them is planning on joining the reserves.
Getting into a flying SELRES job is getting more and more difficult. It's still somewhat of a good ol' boy network for some units. But they still have boards, and they look at FITRPEs. Just my opinion, but don't sacrifice a FITREP just because you're going into the Reserves.
 

Gatordev

Well-Known Member
pilot
Site Admin
Contributor
Getting into a flying SELRES job is getting more and more difficult. It's still somewhat of a good ol' boy network for some units. But they still have boards, and they look at FITRPEs. Just my opinion, but don't sacrifice a FITREP just because you're going into the Reserves.

Something to keep in mind is that any Reserve board (PSB or FTS) will know the last competitive FITREP is something to take with a grain of salt. If you're trending in the right direction and then get a less than awesome FITREP, the board will see and understand what happened, especially if you have a solid first tour record.

Now, if EVERYONE is coming into the board with solid competitive "last" FITREPS, then absolutely, it's one more thing to make you stink more than your competition. Also, like you said, things are very competitive right now, so your overall point is still valid. But just wanted to clarify that one's last FITREP is viewed with skepticism by the Reserves, with good reason.
 

DanMa1156

Is it baseball season yet?
pilot
Contributor
That sounds about as illegal as marines defying title 10 and "continuing" 2xFOSes... for the individual I completely understand the motivation and would do the same to avoid the boat. But I don't think it's legal to make that deal and avoid paying someone a severance...

If it's as good as a letter of resignation in exchange for your choice of duty, how is it not? That's effectively what's happening here.
 

SlickAg

Registered User
pilot
If it's as good as a letter of resignation in exchange for your choice of duty, how is it not? That's effectively what's happening here.

Your post seemed to imply that officers had to sign a Page 13 saying he waived his right to severance if he were a 2xFOS for O-4. That's illegal. If they were forced to submit Letters of Intent and then signed Page 13s saying they understood that officers who resign or submit those letters are ineligible for severance, that make sense. The Marine Corps was holding continuation boards for O-3s who had been passed over twice for O-4 in order to get out of paying them severance. This caused quite an uproar and they were forced to abide by Title 10. Essentially, they were willfully breaking/ignoring US Law in order to get out of paying guys. I think @BACONATOR was concerned, as I was, that the Navy was trying to pull the same thing.

This "silver bullet" thing is fairly new to CNATRA. The guys I know, and there're several per squadron, don't have any strings attached like your buddies. They just got asked if they wanted to stay, and they all want to get out, so they jumped at it. I don't think PERS is doing this out of the goodness of their hearts, they know that jet VTs are way undermanned and will need all the warm bodies they can get. But overall, they're still officially in denial mode that there's a retention problem. I just can't wait to see the VFA and VAQ slates and how closely they match the DH list.
 

DanMa1156

Is it baseball season yet?
pilot
Contributor
Your post seemed to imply that officers had to sign a Page 13 saying he waived his right to severance if he were a 2xFOS for O-4. That's illegal. If they were forced to submit Letters of Intent and then signed Page 13s saying they understood that officers who resign or submit those letters are ineligible for severance, that make sense. The Marine Corps was holding continuation boards for O-3s who had been passed over twice for O-4 in order to get out of paying them severance. This caused quite an uproar and they were forced to abide by Title 10. Essentially, they were willfully breaking/ignoring US Law in order to get out of paying guys. I think @BACONATOR was concerned, as I was, that the Navy was trying to pull the same thing.

This "silver bullet" thing is fairly new to CNATRA. The guys I know, and there're several per squadron, don't have any strings attached like your buddies. They just got asked if they wanted to stay, and they all want to get out, so they jumped at it. I don't think PERS is doing this out of the goodness of their hearts, they know that jet VTs are way undermanned and will need all the warm bodies they can get. But overall, they're still officially in denial mode that there's a retention problem. I just can't wait to see the VFA and VAQ slates and how closely they match the DH list.

Never meant to imply that, apologize if you got that impression.
 

RobLyman

- hawk Pilot
pilot
None
A lot of pie-in-the-sky stuff here. RS moral courage, the briefing officer should.., the board should..., blah blah blah. In my experience in the Navy, there weren't any REALLY outstanding JOs. There was an occasionaly outlier at the top and the bottom, but most (80-90%)were pretty solidly clumped in the middle. How do you separate the promotable from the homogeneous pool left over after selecting the 5-10% high outliers and de-selecting the lowest 5-10%? (See attached meme.) Let's face it. When you get to the last 50%, there are few real discriminators. Take out the pie-in-the-sky stuff that is supposed to make this less of a crap shoot, add in some RSs that either don't give a shit or don't know what they are doing, and you're going to get it wrong, regardless of the FITREP tool used.

It's life. It's unfair. The real performers who "got screwed by the system" are going to be successful elsewhere. The individual doesn't really lose. The Navy does.SlightlyDarkerBlack.gif
 

robav8r

Well-Known Member
None
Contributor
One item that gets very little attention is the CO's ability to write effectively. I mean, afterall, he/she is the CO and RS and their writing style, effectiveness and knowledge of what "works" and what doesn't is not to be questioned, right? It is absolutely incumbent on the CO to know how to write good FITREPS. BUT, I have seen a large quality spread, across many different communities, in how CO's write on their people. Some folks are just really good writers and know the promotion system extremely well. Others, well they do "OK" and answer the mail when required. And . . . . . I have NEVER seen any kind of professional development for XO/CO's that take into account all of the writing nuances and requirements our FITREP & promotion system demands.
 

robav8r

Well-Known Member
None
Contributor
It's life. It's unfair. The real performers who "got screwed by the system" are going to be successful elsewhere. The individual doesn't really lose. The Navy does.View attachment 17001
Shit, the Navy doesn't lose, the Navy NEVER loses. It's a huge meat grinder that will continue to grind away regardless of how special you, me or our subordinates think they are. It's a fools errand to think that any one persons contributions or skills are sacrosanct.
 
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