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PSA - things I should have done....

Spekkio

He bowls overhand.
Are we also assuming rent will stay the same from now into perpetuity? That isn't the case. Home ownership is also provide a small tax shelter, your interest on the loan and many of the taxes at closing are tax deductible. If you are renting, you need to make sure you are investing that difference (rent vs. buy) to reduce your taxable income.
Mortgage interest doesn't come close to beating the standard deduction.

I didn’t increase rent (or house value) to keep everything in 2020 dollars. Rent long term hould expect to increase with inflation just like the value of a home.
Also, you're forgetting equity in the property, again assuming you didn't finance 100%, so you have some buffer there if the market tanks and are looking to sell. I know several people that have investment properties (on the East Coast) who don't follow the 1% rule. Some are just happy if they clear $100/month. Their philosophy: if someone else covers my mortgage + expenses and I clear $100 I'm good. Most of these cases are people who lived in the house previously and have equity built-in.
I'm not sure why you think that I'm forgetting equity. I very clearly mentioned that I can resell the house and recuperate some money.

The 1% rule is for landlords looking to support themselves on only the property's rent. For a mil servicemember with a salary looking to have an asset to live in or sell to buy a place to live in when he separates in his 30s or 40s, the lack of cash flow isn't usually an issue.
 

Pags

N/A
pilot
Still in it and renting a couple rooms to a buddy. I'm also building a 1 br on top of the garage to rent out. Planning to stay there until the gf can get a new job up north closer to my squadron, then I'll rent out both the main house and ADU. Corona has seriously delayed all of the above.


You're 100% right, I bought at a great time (2011) and it worked out for me. I think what's keeping San Diego from bursting is the housing shortage.

For me, the investment answer is to diversify. I don't think real estate is some type of golden ticket, but it's sure nice to have physical assets in addition to everything else.

And as a car guy, I want to add this in case someone reading this had the idea pop in their head that their car is an asset. Stop. No. It's not. It's a tool/toy, nothing more. I have a Lotus and I consider that money written off. Investing in cars to try and make money is a quick path to the poor house.
The reason you feel like you bought at a great time and have had such a great return is because you bought at a low point after the '08 bubble.
 

Spekkio

He bowls overhand.
I can't recall if I said "max TSP" but if I did what I intended to say was "maximize what you put into TSP within your means." I by no means meant put 50% of an O1 salary into TSP. A single O1 without any school debt should have enough cash to share a JO flophouse or have a decent single condo, have an ensign mobile, never want for pizza or beer, and be able to put away 10% or so of every paycheck into savings/retirement planning. Since so many service members are on a perpetual PCS cycle I think perpetually renting is part of the military lifecycle.

That said, having a nice place to live is often good for the soul. Owning my current house is nice because it's nice to know that I can make it my own; from paint on the walls, to gardens in the yard, to knocking down whatever wall I damn well please there's something to be said mentally for having a home of your own.

I obviously have been burned more than others in this thread, but like the housing market, there's a risk that you don't make it to 20. No amount of wanting it will make it happen. So going in as an O1 thinking "I'm gonna do 20 and retire so I don't need to invest" is also silly.

Balance in all things.
You and I are in agreement.

What I've been poorly trying to say is that retirement goals vary. A 10 year officer investing 10% of income gets a whopping $22k per year payout at the age of 60. While his ROI might be better on paper, from a practical perspective it's not going to pay the bills UNLESS he owns a home. This is a different equation if one intends to start withdrawing at 70, has all major expenses paid, and is using the now $35k to pad social security. It's also a different equation if said officer works at an airline for $300k vice some other job for $90-120k. The latter would have to invest that 10% until he's 65 and accept the risk of keeping the majority of his retirement fund in stocks. Or maybe he could use that same $700 and be free of a mortgage payment 15 years earlier, freeing cash flow to enjoy himself in middle age.

If one intends to live off of retirement funds and still make mortgage / rent payments to their dream home, that account needs to be worth $2M in 2020 dollars. You backtrack that and it takes a lot of early, aggressive (high relative to income) investments to get there. The most important variable is time. Now personally by the time I could afford to write a $19k check to TSP (I commissioned at 25 and had student loans at 6.75% to pay off), it was no longer feasible for me to hit that number by age 60 with just TSP investments.

I think we get too wrapped around the axle about ROI % instead of critically analyzing what we want to get from our time and money and when we want to get it. When you think from the end state and work backwards it becomes easy.
 

DanMa1156

Is it baseball season yet?
pilot
Contributor
So how would your dad feel financially if he had to pay 3-4x that in rent for the rest of his life?

Nice try turning that around.

He'd be thrilled if he took the difference in home ownership over renting for those 30 years and invested it in a low cost diversified mutual or index fund. My dad, while financially secure, isn't the most financially savvy guy. His 30 year old house, while appreciating in value, has probably averaged a little less than 2% from the purchase price. While I see your point it's nice for him to have a house to live in, it's not like they could live off that money and be comfortable or live in the house and be comfortable without having made significant investments otherwise. Not to mention, the high property taxes, the roof that needed replacing in those 30 years, figure a hot water heater ever 7-12 years, tiling, wall papers, carpeting/hardwood renovations; it's not exactly a cheap place to own. (Amazingly, I think their Maytag washer and dryer are from 1985 - my dad is pretty handy!)

For all of what you're saying, my parents own two homes, one is a duplex rental. They thought they were buying at the bottom of the market in 2008 and would be fine, not to mention, it's suburban NY with 2 colleges immediately nearby in a pretty good neighborhood. If they sold today, they'd take a 55k loss on the property and that's before counting the past 12 years of expenses or my dad's time fixing laundry machines, hot water heaters, shoveling snow, building steps, painting the house, or my mom's time mowing the lawn or doing yardwork.

I can get behind what you're saying WRT to different goals for different people, but ultimately, real estate as an asset class does not match the stock market historically, and for our new Ensign or Seaman, buying a home at one of their first duty stations makes little sense given they are extremely likely to move, be deployed a ton in their early years, and be consumed with the job that would make them a terrible landlord, all the while losing out on potential gains in the stock market.

WRT to what you're saying about not being able to save enough in TSP until it was too late to have made a difference I certainly don't live frugally, but I do choose how to spend my money wisely and by the time I was a mid-level and 29 or 30, I was maxing out TSP, my Roth IRA, wife's Roth IRA, and funding a taxable brokerage account with $700-$1000 a month. Yes, I recognize that's 40-50% of my income depending on location. I frankly don't understand where people's money goes: we dine, my wife wears new clothes, my kids have toys, we cook good food, we had a house with a pool at our last duty station, I go flying in GA airplanes on my off time (when back CONUS at least), and both the cars I bought, I bought new and either put a ton down or paid off extremely rapidly with an extremely low interest rate; I just pay myself first. The one thing we've skimped on has been long or expensive vacations, but that's mostly been a function of my children's age than anything else; we've set aside a good amount of money in more liquid accounts for the day we actually take one.

Your 22k a year example I think is fine. You have to look at multiple income streams. If said officer gets 22k a year from TSP (and OBTW that's tax free withdrwals if he did ROTH), 13-18k from Social Security, saved a similar amount from his civilian job's 401k - so let's just conservatively ballpark it that it's enough to withdraw 44k annually since we'll say he worked another 25-30 years at a similar income and savings level. Suddenly we're looking at him having an income stream of 79k annually and that's figuring conservatively: primarily - he gets no raises past LT and never saves more than 10% of his income.
 
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SynixMan

HKG Based Artificial Excrement Pilot
pilot
Contributor
WRT to what you're saying about not being able to save enough in TSP until it was too late to have made a difference I certainly don't live frugally, but I do choose how to spend my money wisely and by the time I was a mid-level and 29 or 30, I was maxing out TSP, my Roth IRA, wife's Roth IRA, and funding a taxable brokerage account with $700-$1000 a month. Yes, I recognize that's 40-50% of my income depending on location. I frankly don't understand where people's money goes: we dine, my wife wears new clothes, my kids have toys, we cook good food, we had a house with a pool at our last duty station, I go flying in GA airplanes on my off time (when back CONUS at least), and both the cars I bought, I bought new and either put a ton down or paid off extremely rapidly with an extremely low interest rate; I just pay myself first. The one thing we've skimped on has been long or expensive vacations, but that's mostly been a function of my children's age than anything else; we've set aside a good amount of money in more liquid accounts for the day we actually take one.

Careful, this is a logical trap most USNA/ROTC types fall into. 70% of American college grads are carrying debt when they leave school (citation: some random CNBC article, but it's in the ballpark). Granted, certainly far less for military officers, given the scholarship options. For my wife and myself, it was over $1000k a month, and she couldn't find much paying better than $10/hr in Norfolk.
 

drgndrvr

Well-Known Member
pilot
I'll offer a different view on the future return of equities. I'm always suspect when people say "this time is different" - but there's a lot of research out right now pointing toward muted equity returns for the next 10-15 years. A stock price is really made up of three things: 1) expected future profits, 2) interest rates, and 3) market enthusiasm in the "multiple."

Each component shows that stocks are expensive now. Expected future profits are baked in to the current price (one way to look at this is how much would the U.S. economy as a whole have to grow for company profits to grow? Despite noise to the contrary, the natural growth rate of the U.S. economy is not 3%). Interest rates are historically low - look at a chart over the past 50 years. Steady decline to where we are now. And finally, the P/E ratio of the market as a whole is above average. Check out the CAPE ratio - one of the "better" (i.e. r squared of .44) predictors of medium term returns.

The key is to acknowledge that we don't know what will happen. Innovation could reverse the stagnating productivity gains we've seen over the past two decades. Some new model could replicate the dramatic growth due to globalization from the 1980s-now. But I don't want to count on that for planning purposes. The outlook isn't "bad" with a 30 year investing horizon because I am confident that something disruptive will happen then. But for the next 10 years? I'm planning for a 5% return.
 

DanMa1156

Is it baseball season yet?
pilot
Contributor
Careful, this is a logical trap most USNA/ROTC types fall into. 70% of American college grads are carrying debt when they leave school (citation: some random CNBC article, but it's in the ballpark). Granted, certainly far less for military officers, given the scholarship options. For my wife and myself, it was over $1000k a month, and she couldn't find much paying better than $10/hr in Norfolk.

Totally fair critique of my position; I should have clarified I was comparing myself to fellow USNA/ROTC scholarship grads within the officer corps - and I think you know exactly who I mean - you've seen them too. I had a buddy who was crushed with 80k in student debt from ERAU - that I understand. The same exists within the enlisted ranks - the kid right out of high school who has almost no living costs but always seems to be in debt because he has the highest end latest and greatest video games, computers, iphone, and car. I just sympathize with that kid more - no one taught him about money beyond his Chief at RTC telling him "put 5% in TSP and forget about it."
 

RedFive

Well-Known Member
pilot
None
Contributor
Careful, this is a logical trap most USNA/ROTC types fall into. 70% of American college grads are carrying debt when they leave school
My JetBlue buddy went the civilian route and just upgraded to Captain in the past year -- he's still paying off his loans.

I just sympathize with that kid more - no one taught him about money beyond his Chief at RTC telling him "put 5% in TSP and forget about it."
Pssssst.....there are zero finance courses at ERAU. Shit, I took their entire history class catalog for funsies -- all three classes. It was an amazing education in terms of being laser focused on engineering, but I guess they just assumed we were all smart enough to figure out money on our own. Not sure, but at least I'm good at excel.

I, too, sympathize with the 18 year old kid, however, I empathize with the millennial whose parents and society pushed into 80k of college debt only to discover the ROI was less than favorable.
 

SynixMan

HKG Based Artificial Excrement Pilot
pilot
Contributor
Careful, this is a logical trap most USNA/ROTC types fall into. 70% of American college grads are carrying debt when they leave school (citation: some random CNBC article, but it's in the ballpark). Granted, certainly far less for military officers, given the scholarship options. For my wife and myself, it was over $1000k a month, and she couldn't find much paying better than $10/hr in Norfolk.

Can’t edit this but meant to say $1000 not $1000k.

Also in my haste, meant to add: Regardless of one’s debt situation or savings goals, don’t be a whiny first tour JO about money. Buy the stupid group buy shirt that costs $50, get in on the plane model/poster/whatever deal, do the port call admin, etc. Being a squadron JO is a once in a lifetime opportunity.
 

Hair Warrior

Well-Known Member
Contributor
I predict that - unless we get a socialist change in federal law relating to student loan debt/ "free college" - colleges will become more competitive on price, as students opt for gap years or cheaper online education in the wake of coronavirus restrictions. I mean, if I were a college kid today, I wouldn't pay full on-campus tuition prices for online class results.

Also, and people might look at this opinion negatively, but maybe we genuinely have too many colleges in this country* - some may close naturally due to market forces, if fewer students are enrolling. As education becomes more available online, there are obvious benefits to centralization of curricula to achieve overhead reductions. Teaching a 150-student class online is not very different than teaching a 50-student class online, but obviously on campus you run into floor space/ seating issues/ dorms/ commuting, that naturally limit the size of the student body.

*Note for naysayers: "too many colleges" =/= "too many college students" in logical argument. We basically have 3 computer operating systems (Windows, Mac, Linux) and 99% of America has access to at least one of them.
 

Pags

N/A
pilot
Frankly I think it's unfair to expect colleges to teach life skills. That's not what they're there for.

That said, I think people do need to find a way to get those life skills. Perhaps HomeEc curriculums need to be expanded beyond just sewing and making Mac and cheese.
 

Pags

N/A
pilot
I predict that - unless we get a socialist change in federal law relating to student loan debt/ "free college" - colleges will become more competitive on price, as students opt for gap years or cheaper online education in the wake of coronavirus restrictions. I mean, if I were a college kid today, I wouldn't pay full on-campus tuition prices for online class results.

Also, and people might look at this opinion negatively, but maybe we genuinely have too many colleges in this country* - some may close naturally due to market forces, if fewer students are enrolling. As education becomes more available online, there are obvious benefits to centralization of curricula to achieve overhead reductions. Teaching a 150-student class online is not very different than teaching a 50-student class online, but obviously on campus you run into floor space/ seating issues/ dorms/ commuting, that naturally limit the size of the student body.

*Note for naysayers: "too many colleges" =/= "too many college students" in logical argument. We basically have 3 computer operating systems (Windows, Mac, Linux) and 99% of America has access to at least one of them.
Who uses a computer anymore? I think most folks primary computer is their mobile device.

Also, I tend to think the college problem will be solved by market forces. Elite expensive colleges will continue to be so because , frankly, it will always be worth it to folks who want it. Small schools that charge a lot for a basket weaving degree will fail because of lack of ROI. No one is making people go to expensive schools other than the pathological desire to have expensive things and to keep up with the Joneses.
 

Hair Warrior

Well-Known Member
Contributor
Frankly I think it's unfair to expect colleges to teach life skills. That's not what they're there for.

That said, I think people do need to find a way to get those life skills. Perhaps HomeEc curriculums need to be expanded beyond just sewing and making Mac and cheese.
Shack. Ideas include:
  1. Civics/Govt - how to vote, how to serve on a jury, how govt works, how to look up and read the law, how to interact with LE, about the Selective Service System, how to run for public office, how real estate gets recorded in municipalities, all about taxes at the state, local, federal levels, how to look up and see where your tax money goes

  2. Personal Finance - how to open bank accounts of different types and how to check those balances, the time value of money, how loans work (car loan, payday loan, mortgages), how insurance works, how the economy works (e.g. supply/demand, why commodity prices go up/down), how to invest in stocks/mutual funds (and the risks), how wages work, how businesses earn profit and use revenue to employ people and create jobs

  3. Fitness/Nutrition - this is showing my bias (in favor of a clean diet) but I genuinely think our country needs to have an honest conversation about sugar, grains, and processed foods. A roommate told me long ago that he had a coworker who was wondering aloud why he was afflicted with Type II diabetes as he was pulling a full size snickers bar from his desk drawer, and sipping on a supersized southern sweet tea. I look at it two-fold: youth fitness is a national security issue, and all-age fitness levels have a real government cost on the back end in terms of Medicaid, Medicare, fire/EMT services costs, hospital costs, insurance premiums that everyone pays, etc. Call me out for trying to brainwash kids to eat their veggies/meats and put down the junk food, but I can die on that hill.
 
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Pags

N/A
pilot
Shack. Ideas include:
  1. Civics/Govt - how to vote, how to serve on a jury, how govt works, how to look up and read the law, how to interact with LE, about the Selective Service System, how to run for public office, how real estate gets recorded in municipalities, all about taxes at the state, local, federal levels, how to look up and see where your tax money goes

  2. Personal Finance - how to open bank accounts of different types and how to check those balances, the time value of money, how loans work (car loan, payday loan, mortgages), how insurance works, how the economy works (e.g. supply/demand, why commodity prices go up/down), how to invest in stocks/mutual funds (and the risks), how wages work, how businesses earn profit and use revenue to employ people and create jobs

  3. Fitness/Nutrition - this is showing my bias (in favor of a paleo diet) but I genuinely think our country needs to have an honest conversation about sugar, grains, and processed foods. A roommate told me long ago that he had a coworker who was wondering aloud why he was afflicted with Type II diabetes as he was pulling a full size snickers bar from his desk drawer, and sipping on a supersized southern sweet tea. I look at it two-fold: youth fitness is a national security issue, and all-age fitness levels have a real government cost on the back end in terms of Medicaid, Medicare, fire/EMT services costs, hospital costs, insurance premiums that everyone pays, etc. Call me out for trying to brainwash kids to eat their veggies/meats and put down the junk food, but I can die on that hill.
Probably not bad ideas for a spectrum...but some of this will be too early in most people's lives for them to remember it. Learning about real estate when you're 16 and then having 10-13yrs of time to forget that content or for it become irrelevant doesn't help either.

For HS kids I figure life skills should be:
-health stuff. Junk food is bad, routine exercise is good, etc. We don't need everyone to be a CrossFit monster but if everyone drank one less coke, ate a cup of food less a day, and walked 30min that would be huge.
-notion of citizenship. Register to vote. Does your vote really count (electoral vs popular)
-you and the law
-finances. Save $. How to "balance a checkbook". Taxes for your first job. Investment basics.
-sex makes babies but doesn't have to
-basic food prep for survival and health

Stuff that should come in later:
-advanced finances. Adult investing...how to balance a portfolio...how much...should I invest in Iraqi dinar or precious metals?
-owning a home. How to get there. Mortgage.
-car finance
-adult taxes
-how to pick an accountant

Problem is that past HS you're largely depending on the individual to figure it out. Plenty of community colleges do classes like the above or larger employers can have decent courses. I can imagine a realistic way to get adults to do this at a relevant point in their lives if they don't want to.

Funny thing is that a friend from HS now runs a business doing the later stage stuff I just described. She had to figure it all out herself but then in her prior day job at a college she realized that people lack these skills. So she started teaching night classes on the basics and now runs her own business as a "financial coach for average people.". She's not promising riches, just helping people make a budget, set goals, etc.
 

Jim123

DD-214 in hand and I'm gonna party like it's 1998
pilot
K-12 public schools should be teaching those three things (civics, life skills, health).

They do, or they try to.

I don't have the solutions to make them do it better because I don't know enough about it to put my finger on the problem. Maybe curriculum is too centralized or maybe it's not centralized enough. The Department of Education, NCLB, standardized testing all get a lot of flak. A lot of schools cut back gym class and recess- those decisions were plainly stupid, but now how much are the parents and taxpayers to blame for allowing it to happen? It's also pretty amazing how many kids spend how many hours every year sitting on a school bus, having walked thirty seconds from the front door to the bus stop, while their little asses grow fatter and fatter- the blame for that is on municipal taxpayers and their local governments (and school boards) for building mega schools instead of neighborhood elementary schools. Academia has done a really great job selling itself for a few generations- a little too well, and at the expense of skilled trades (as every Mike Rowe fan knows...).

Those horses left the barn a lot time ago and it's gonna be hard to bring them back.
 
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