I’d call it two factors affecting HSC FTS right now.
When 84 went away, it took avenues to make O-5 off the board. Rare is the occasion that a pilot goes to SCORE and makes O-5. Not to mention the abysmal O-5 1317 promotion rates over the last few years. As a data point, my last two years in the Navy, 85 had about a dozen FTS guys up for O-5 and one (maybe two) made it.
The other factor is that the ‘Navy helo SOF community’ is continually fighting for relevance and to stay alive with Big Navy. For as much good 85 provides, it’s an easy line item to get rid of in a budget. Even after everything from 2015/16, from what I’ve heard through the grapevine, the Navy is looking to cut 85 again, or at least it’s discussed.
Both of those factors are creating a ton of uncertainty in guys looking to switch from active duty, and guys that have been in the HSC FTS community are growing weary of the uncertainty and choosing other paths.
For me personally, having been through two stand ups and a shutdown, all of the above played in my decision to seek other avenues, and ultimately to get out the Navy. A lot of my peers switched to VR, decided to go the NOSC route, got out, or went regular SELRES. As with anything, it took the Navy a few years to catch on that HSC FTS dude’s are starting to bail.