Cynically, I've wondered if maybe this isn't also a factor in the level of support we've given Ukraine. Just enough, but not too much. Yes, fears of escalation and all that make sense so we keep things limited to lesser weapons in moderate amounts. But also, if we gave them everything they need to end this conflict tomorrow, that would, well... end this conflict tomorrow. The longer it drags on, the more it hurts Russia, and Russian pain is to the US's benefit. Sure, one epic, decisive battle would take out significant Russian hardware, but seemingly less than months more fighting would. So we support to keep Ukraine fighting, but not to push them to a quick defeat. I'm faaar from a historian or war strategy wonk, but this sort of makes sense to me.
On the other side of that coin though, I worry that a drastically weakened Russia will be ripe for Chinese influence, and I don't know what that might look like, but it seems, um, bad. I'd love to hear the thoughts from those of you far more well-versed than I on this aspect of things. Does China go in to "rescue" a dramatically weakened Russia, and in doing so further expand its influence, and perhaps gain control of some of Russia's natural resources? Would China's support make Russia beholden to them in ways ultimately bad for the West?
Or could Russia perhaps become the new Taiwan? Taiwan is dicey and semi- maybe- probably- protected by the West. If Xi decides he needs a war to make him look good (and stimulate his economy) but thinks maybe Taiwan isn't worth the risk, does carving off some little part of neighbor Russia, who is clearly weak and unable to effectively fight off a determined, massive, well-stocked Chinese Army, suddenly start to look enticing? If they went after some part of Russia that was formerly Chinese territory, couldn't it be framed in roughly the same way as they frame Taiwan? Retaking part of China that was stolen by foreign governments? But a presumably much easier, less risky move for China, given that Russia has few friends left? Is a Chino-Russian war a plausible outcome of this?
Again, I'm but a lowly English major who knows pathetically little about history, so be gentle. But I know this place is thick with history, strategy, and international politics nerds, so I'd love to have your thoughts on my thoughts.