Wow. Classy.
Didn't realize you were one of those PhD's that think that only they are qualified to talk about anything or could possibly know something. I'm so sorry to have offended you.
You take care.
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Europe under extreme duress
- Thread starter Randy Daytona
- Start date
Didn't realize you were one of those PhD's that think that only they are qualified to talk about anything or could possibly know something. I'm so sorry to have offended you.
You take care.
I thought we were done?
Max the Mad Russian
Hands off Ukraine! Feet too
Please don't play great strategist, for the chance you are is quite slim, just like for everyone here. Just - please - think about chemicals Russia either supported to use in Syria or directly used. It has been already done. Nukes are not the only horrible means Putin can include in this war against Ukraine and probably Batlics you suppose to allow him to wage. In Russian military history the use of chemical weapon seems to be ordinary step, since Gen Tukhachevsky used it in Russia in 1921 during Russian Civil War against his own citizens. That chemicals may be the first step, after which the next step to nukes may seem quite logical by any side of conflict. Sticking with this logic, this war HAS notable chance of going nuclear, since the first step on the same continent has been, repeat, already done.
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I think my sarcasm was lost in translation, Max. I'm well aware it can go nuclear, and don't think war with Russia is inevitable. That's what Griz believes. He's funny.
Max the Mad Russian
Hands off Ukraine! Feet too
He personally knows what the real war is. Is it funny, in your opinion?
I don't mean literally funny. What I really meant is he's an idiot for thinking those things. No serious person can believe we are 100% going to war with Russia or that nukes will certainly not be used if we do.
Max the Mad Russian
Hands off Ukraine! Feet too
Perhaps I'm an idiot too. For Putin is already waging the war against America but still on Eurasian soil for awhile. Remember the saying of A-10 pilots in Europe in 80s? "No matter how cool you are in the air if when you land you find the Soviet tank driver eating your sandwich". I'm consciously aversing the risk to call you idiot or so, but the "cool in the air" is possibly perfect term, sorry.
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I think your own view seems kind of black and white. You say about NATO going to war with Russia but if Russia attacks a NATO nation and NATO then fights back, then I'd say Russia is going to war with NATO, not the other way around. I say your view seems to be black and white because your reasoning seems to be that if Russia attacks say a Baltic country, then NATO fighting back would constitute "going to war with Russia" and that would likely lead to nuclear war. I do not buy that at all, either that fighting back constitutes going to war with Russia or that it likely leads to nuclear war. As for those very smart people you mention who have said such, I'd be very curious to see the reasoning they use to reach such a conclusion.
Also, why do you presume NATO would have to push into Russian territory to defend NATO? Considering the industrial capability, logistic capability, training and equipment superiority of NATO, all NATO would need to do is:
1) Destroy all Russian aircraft trying to attack
2) Make all Russian tanks go boom
3) Kill all Russian infantry
Yes NATO forces might need to advance some to hit Russian artillery, but then they could go back. If Russia tries attacking again, the same thing would be done. No need to advance into Russia itself.
NATO chief says Finland, Sweden welcome to apply to join
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg says the military alliance would quickly welcome Finland and Sweden into the fold if they decided to apply
Max the Mad Russian
Hands off Ukraine! Feet too
First one is enough. As to second and third, UA will cope alone
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Two interesting stories combined. The first indicates Putin already sees Russia at war with the west while the second (more important) shows us that Prague uncorked the bottle on supplying Ukraine with heavy equipment. Now I wonder if Polish jets aren’t far behind.
On the eastern front the fighting will be worse. The Donbas has well defined lines that will be hard to break.
www.dailymail.co.uk
On the eastern front the fighting will be worse. The Donbas has well defined lines that will be hard to break.
Russia is ALREADY at war with the West as far as Putin is concerned
Mikhail Khodorkovsky, 58, warned that Putin believes that NATO is 'weak' and that it would refrain from defending the Baltic states should Russia attack - resulting in the 'collapse' of the military alliance.
Dude who cares what you call it? Both sides would be choosing war. The only party who wouldn't have a choice is the Baltic nations who are attacked directly. Of course Russia would be more to blame for the war than NATO. Call it whatever you want. The US would not have to go to war with Russia over the Baltics. We would have to make a choice based on Russia's choice. I am arguing we should make one choice, others think we should make a different one.
Because we would. Kaliningrad is an area denial powerhouse and we would have no choice but to take it from Russia if we want to get our troops and equipment in the area.
That's all pretty besides the point, though. In the extremely unlikely event Putin decides to take the Baltics, I see one of 2 strategies he would employ, because fighting us in the kind of war you're describing is a losing battle for him and he knows it. He's not stupid. He will either use hybrid warfare on the model of how he took Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, meaning no real troops in uniform and no invasion per se. In this case, we would have to decide if they were actually attacked or not, and whether article 5 even applies. The 2nd scenario is that Putin does invade but is fully prepared to use tactical nukes to level the playing field, probably betting that we don't have the stomach to use nukes back. This is far less likely, but more likely than him thinking he's just going to pit his conventional military against the Western world and keep nukes out of it.
Max the Mad Russian
Hands off Ukraine! Feet too
You may be surprised but here I totally agree. Two possible "second fronts" now are this amber soil and Japanese "Northern Territory", even taking no part in conflict but just restoring that same "historical fairness".
Kaliningrad is not historical Russia territory, it was a German city made Russian by Stalin. So while it may be Russian territory, it's not the exact same thing as attacking the historical Russian homeland. And Putin would be risking it by attacking NATO. Thus, while legally taking Kaliningrad might constitute "pushing into Russia," it's not the same as pushing into the literal Russian mainland.
I agree, Putin is not stupid. But I do not see how invading a Baltic state in the same way he invaded Crimea and Eastern Ukraine would not constitute an attack on NATO. By that argument, all NATO need do right now is role troops not in uniform into Kalinigrad and claim it for ourselves. All any country need do is role troops into another country and say, "Hey, when we role in, so long as you shoot first, we are not the attackers because you fired the first shot." If they are rolling troops and equipment into a country against its will, that constitutes an invasion. If the Russians decide to have some other country's forces go in, then NATO can kill those forces (say Belarus forces). Also I'd think there would first have to be a build up of forces as well to do any such invasion, so NATO would see it coming and could similarly do its own counter build up.
Very quick side note, Bruce Willis is having to retire now due to serious mental decline from a condition called aphasia. He's unable to remember lines and they've had to severely shorten his involvement in the films he's done to date.