The demand for UAVs with a finish capability is driven by elusive nature of a particular target set that favors a persistent overhead presence that a Pred or Reaper can fulfill. The advantages are still not all in favor of the UAS especially in CAS role. A surgical Time Critical Strike against an HVT like you referenced is not CAS, period. So just because it garners headlines doesn't mean the manned cockpit isn't better solution overhead troops in contact in need of CAS.
So your crystal ball is better than the legions of Air Force generals who laid it on the line for the F-22? Maybe you're right, but who thought we'd be in a land "war" in the other end of Asia even a year prior to Desert Storm and there was plenty of aerial combat. Many who thought like you did wish they'd hadn't as not all aircraft were optimized for it like the USAF F-15 Eagles were.
Excellent post heyjoe, and definitely appreciate the candor. Sorry for the frontlines quip, and also sorry for the tarmac line in an older post as well -- as a mere civilian, I'm not exactly up to snuff on my military jargon, and may have watched Band of Brothers one too many times. Sorry.
Nonetheless, I didn't mean to be disrespectful or claim to know what the future of warfare will definitely look like or not. If anything, I agree with you about the inability to guess what the future holds, and subsequently, I totally believe in the being-prepared-for-any/all-scenarios- approach to defense spending/planning. As far as China goes however, I will say that both the U.S. and China have their hands firmly placed into each others mouths and I'm willing to wager neither will ever bite.
I just find it an interesting time to be pursuing a career in military aviation, given the huge advances in technology we've seen over this past decade. Hell the cockpit of the F-35 looks like it came out of an Apple design lab! And it seems to me that the rate of change is accelerating as relates to aviation. The statistic about the AF training more UAV pilots than fighter/bomber pilots (obviously doesn't include cargo, tankers, helo, etc.) really scared me.
I've worked in the trading industry for the past 4 years. I started in the pits, and I've seen what happened to the guys who got left behind as trading moved to the screen (electronically). Today, most of the guys in the business ride the desk clicking their mouse instead of looking each other in the face. That's not to say there aren't still guys on the floor, because there are, but they are a much smaller, less important part of the overall machine. I'm one of the romantics who went down there because I wanted to be a part of the club -- its still exclusive, but its just a helluva lot smaller. That's what resonates when I think about this type of stuff, that's all. Probably been giving it too much thought, but then again, I'm unemployed now so I've got way too much time on my hands...
