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The Perpetual MEGA Space Thread

Swanee

Cereal Killer
pilot
None
Contributor
I'm pretty sure the loss of all three astronauts is a "catastrophic failure" in manned spaceflight. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_1

Also, you seem to have forgotten about Apollo 13 and how they almost lost the crew and spacecraft. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_13

Seems like you're mincing words, so I'm out. Continue to hate Elon Musk and SpaceX for your own personal reasons. :rolleyes:

Apollos 1 and 13 were not Saturn V failures. They were payload failures. Apollo One was a ground mishap. 13 recovered successfully.


Apollo 6 was the only time a Saturn V experienced a failure and it didn't result in the loss of everything.


Of course we're bashing on SpaceX. You've seen the reasons, and you seem to ignore or dismiss them.

SpaceX hasn't revolutionize anything (who do you know in the industry who is telling you that?). They're still using the same kind of fueled, phallic shaped, rockets; the space shuttle was a reusable vehicle; we've sent satellites to other planets and beyond our solar system so just the idea that we could get to Mars isn't revolutionary. Landing a booster on a floating pad is cool, but it's not revolutionary. How Perseverance landed on Mars was a revolutionary concept.

SpaceX is 0-2 on Starship whereas Boeing is 1-1 with Artemis in a shorter timeline. But who got results?
 

sevenhelmet

Low calorie attack from the Heartland
pilot
Space X definitely has the performative aspect of space flight going for them. It’s the utility of Starship that I take issue with. While watching lower stages re-land themselves is genuinely interesting, I don’t see us going to Mars with Space X tech anytime soon. The mass properties of their tall phallus-shaped lunar lander concept look downright scary- the moon isn’t flat like a tabletop. I also object to the culture of “launch before you’re ready” in order to “fail forward”. It is wasteful to a spectacular degree- interesting for a company that claims to value saving resources. Why might that be? Reference the first sentence of this post.

Taking the time to do proper analysis and testing before launching Starship would have been far less wasteful, possibly cheaper, but without the social media show reel. The shit of it all is, their strategy does work. They’re far more popular than Boeing (who has their own issues with QC and penny-pinching management to worry about). I have no doubt Space X will get around to a successful Starship flight- eventually.

I’m not saying Space X is worthless. I’m just not a fan of performative acts over substance. Starship, to me, reeks of that so far.
 
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Brett327

Well-Known Member
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
Space X definitely has the performative aspect of space flight going for them. It’s the utility of Starship that I take issue with. While watching lower stages re-land themselves is genuinely interesting, I don’t see us going to Mars with Space X tech anytime soon. The mass properties of their tall phallus-shaped lunar lander concept look downright scary- the moon isn’t flat like a tabletop. I also object to the culture of “launch before you’re ready” in order to “fail forward”. It is wasteful to a spectacular degree- interesting for a company that claims to value saving resources. Why might that be? Reference the first sentence of this post.

Taking the time to do proper analysis and testing before launching Starship would have been far less wasteful, possibly cheaper, but without the social media show reel. The shit of it all is, their strategy does work. They’re far more popular than Boeing (who has their own issues with QC and penny-pinching management to worry about). I have no doubt Space X will get around to a successful Starship flight- eventually.

I’m not saying Space X is worthless. I’m just not a fan of performative acts over substance. Starship, to me, reeks of that so far.
This is the correct take. When SpaceX launched the car from Heavy Metal toward Mars, I thought that was super cool and demonstrated some real moxie from an innovative new company. What has evolved since then has become Musk’s cult of personality and his adoring followers. They’ve polluted the social media landscape with a continuous stream of absolute nonsense. It is a cult.

Setting aside SpaceX’s lacking safety culture (aided and abetted by the cult members), I want SpaceX to succeed, but we should all be extremely wary of suggestions that they’re going to cram 100 people into Starship and start building a colony on Mars in any of our lifetimes.
 

JTS11

Well-Known Member
pilot
Contributor
This is the correct take. When SpaceX launched the car from Heavy Metal toward Mars, I thought that was super cool and demonstrated some real moxie from an innovative new company. What has evolved since then has become Musk’s cult of personality and his adoring followers. They’ve polluted the social media landscape with a continuous stream of absolute nonsense. It is a cult.

Setting aside SpaceX’s lacking safety culture (aided and abetted by the cult members), I want SpaceX to succeed, but we should all be extremely wary of suggestions that they’re going to cram 100 people into Starship and start building a colony on Mars in any of our lifetimes.
You're telling me the guy who lit $25B on fire with his purchase of Twitter, is currently on a reputation enhancement tour in Israel after posting antisemitic conspiracy theories, and who today revived the Q-Anon Pizzagate conspiracy....that we can't take him on the level? ?

 

Random8145

Registered User
Of course we're bashing on SpaceX. You've seen the reasons, and you seem to ignore or dismiss them.

SpaceX hasn't revolutionize anything (who do you know in the industry who is telling you that?).
They most certainly have revolutionized things. This is actually a very ironic thing I've seen happen:

1) SpaceX says they're going to achieve X

2) The industry says impossible, no, idiots, Elon Musk doesn't know what he's doing, can't be done, etc...

3) SpaceX achieves X

4) Industry and critics respond with, they didn't do anything revolutionary, well the tech already was known about, they got help from NASA, etc...

To which I ask, if they haven't achieved anything revolutionary, then why were their initial goals viewed as impossible by so many? Why haven't the other aerospace companies achieved similar?

For example, on vertically landing a rocket, I've read Elon was told by the chief engineer of a company that he'll never land a first stage booster, and even if he somehow did, it would be so thoroughly wrecked that he wouldn't be able to re-use it. Then after achieving such, I've seen critics go, "SpaceX wasn't the first to do it" (because someone before managed to land a wobbly mini rocket) and "They got help from NASA!" which is true, as in having access to the NASA technical archive, there was research that had been done on the concept of vertical landing rockets. But...did Boeing, Lockheed, ULA, etc...not have this same access? Why didn't they build on that research?

SpaceX has thus far achieved at least three, possibly four in a way, revolutionary milestones:

1) Vertical landing rockets

2) Reusable rockets (tied to #1)

3) Significantly lowered the cost of launching cargo and astronauts (tied to #1 and #2)

4) Revitalized the U.S. space program in that we are back to using American rockets to launch American astronauts, as opposed to the prior national embarrassment of having to rely on the Russians to launch us, who were also charging an arm and a leg. In addition, the money saved as a result is money NASA can put towards other things.

They're still using the same kind of fueled, phallic shaped, rockets; the space shuttle was a reusable vehicle; we've sent satellites to other planets and beyond our solar system so just the idea that we could get to Mars isn't revolutionary. Landing a booster on a floating pad is cool, but it's not revolutionary. How Perseverance landed on Mars was a revolutionary concept.

SpaceX is 0-2 on Starship whereas Boeing is 1-1 with Artemis in a shorter timeline. But who got results?
They are using fueled rockets that are an enormous improvement in many ways over everything else. And the Space Shuttle? The Space Shuttle was reusable, yes, but it completely failed in its goal of being what SpaceX has achieved. Shuttle launches were enormously expensive and the Shuttle, while reusable, was in no way reusable on a frequent basis.

As for sending spacecraft to other planets, the idea regarding Mars that would be revolutionary is sending humans. And landing a booster on a floating pad is very much revolutionary, as it used to be regarded as science fiction by the industry and still is for the most part as SpaceX is the only one that does it and repeatedly.

And while Boeing is 1-1 on Artemis, the launch was very late and they won't be able to launch again likely for another three years, if that. Nor is the rocket reusable. The vast majority of it perishes in the launch. In addition, while they managed to launch their spacecraft to the Moon, they are not capable of sending humans to the ISS. And considering the much smaller size of their spacecraft, I don't think it's a fair comparison. Whereas the Starship is designed to be completely reusable, both stages.

Consider this: if SpaceX blows up four, five, or six more Starships in the next three to four years but then gets the design nailed to where they can then start every six months launching one to the Moon and back, while Artemis is maybe on its second or third launch, and much more expensive, would you still view SpaceX as failing? Remember, getting to the Moon isn't the sole issue, its developing the capability to repeatedly launch spacecraft to the Moon, on a frequent basis and for a cheap cost. So that Artemis got to the Moon first means nothing unto itself.
 
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Random8145

Registered User
Space X definitely has the performative aspect of space flight going for them. It’s the utility of Starship that I take issue with. While watching lower stages re-land themselves is genuinely interesting, I don’t see us going to Mars with Space X tech anytime soon. The mass properties of their tall phallus-shaped lunar lander concept look downright scary- the moon isn’t flat like a tabletop. I also object to the culture of “launch before you’re ready” in order to “fail forward”. It is wasteful to a spectacular degree- interesting for a company that claims to value saving resources. Why might that be? Reference the first sentence of this post.
SpaceX was ready. They don't just build the rocket and launch. They test fired on the ground both the Super Heavy booster and the Starship itself. But to really learn, they have to launch. As for Starship's ability to land safely on the Moon, NASA seems to think it is a good design. I am sure SpaceX is well-aware that it has to not fall over when touching down and will test this unmanned before sending humans.
Taking the time to do proper analysis and testing before launching Starship would have been far less wasteful, possibly cheaper, but without the social media show reel. The shit of it all is, their strategy does work. They’re far more popular than Boeing (who has their own issues with QC and penny-pinching management to worry about). I have no doubt Space X will get around to a successful Starship flight- eventually.

I’m not saying Space X is worthless. I’m just not a fan of performative acts over substance. Starship, to me, reeks of that so far.
I find it hard to believe they're purposely blowing up Starships for social media views.
 

Random8145

Registered User
This is the correct take. When SpaceX launched the car from Heavy Metal toward Mars, I thought that was super cool and demonstrated some real moxie from an innovative new company. What has evolved since then has become Musk’s cult of personality and his adoring followers. They’ve polluted the social media landscape with a continuous stream of absolute nonsense. It is a cult.

Setting aside SpaceX’s lacking safety culture (aided and abetted by the cult members), I want SpaceX to succeed, but we should all be extremely wary of suggestions that they’re going to cram 100 people into Starship and start building a colony on Mars in any of our lifetimes.
If they lack a safety culture, then why does NASA entrust them to launch astronauts? Why has the Air Force given them the contract for development of a logistics rocket? I agree that there is a Musk cult unfortunately, but I do not see that affecting SpaceX's safety culture right now.
 

AllAmerican75

FUBIJAR
None
Contributor
Space X definitely has the performative aspect of space flight going for them. It’s the utility of Starship that I take issue with. While watching lower stages re-land themselves is genuinely interesting, I don’t see us going to Mars with Space X tech anytime soon. The mass properties of their tall phallus-shaped lunar lander concept look downright scary- the moon isn’t flat like a tabletop. I also object to the culture of “launch before you’re ready” in order to “fail forward”. It is wasteful to a spectacular degree- interesting for a company that claims to value saving resources. Why might that be? Reference the first sentence of this post.

Taking the time to do proper analysis and testing before launching Starship would have been far less wasteful, possibly cheaper, but without the social media show reel. The shit of it all is, their strategy does work. They’re far more popular than Boeing (who has their own issues with QC and penny-pinching management to worry about). I have no doubt Space X will get around to a successful Starship flight- eventually.

I’m not saying Space X is worthless. I’m just not a fan of performative acts over substance. Starship, to me, reeks of that so far.
My running theory is that those cool videos and presentations about putting the crewed stage of Starship on the moon were entirely to secure funding and investment similar to the Hypersonic transport presentation they made to use Starship as a replacement for long-haul airline service.

The real benefit of Starship will be its down-orbit capability, something we haven't had since the space shuttle and doesn't seem to be in the cards anywhere else. If Musk and Co. can reduce the cost of bringing things back from space, it will be just as revolutionary as the reductions in cost they achieved for sending things up there in the first place. It would be even neater is Bezos and Blue Origin are able to actually offer serious competition which should drive further innovation and democratization of access to space.
 

JTS11

Well-Known Member
pilot
Contributor
I have this theory that the Musk meltdown of the last four years or so is because he had a massive existential meltdown when he realized that it would be impossible for humans to make it to Mars in his life time.
Speaking of meltdowns. This is from yesterday, while his X CEO sits in the front row updating her resume. I guess he doesn't care, but he's increasingly lighting his $44B buyout of Twitter on fire.

It's hard to believe that this guy has any role to play in our national security.

 
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wink

War Hoover NFO.
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
Today Jeff Bezos got the full detailed tour of ULA adding to speculation either Amazon or Blu Origin buys ULA. ULA is contracted to deploy Amazon's new mini sat comm link. and Blue Origin is late providing motors to ULA,, now paying penalties.
 

Brett327

Well-Known Member
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
I got to tour the Blue Origin facility in Seattle a few months back where they’re manufacturing their engines and spacecraft. Pretty cool. It was clear, listening to their corporate spiel, that Bezos had given them a lot of tolerance for risk and results instead of the bottom line.
 

Random8145

Registered User
Today Jeff Bezos got the full detailed tour of ULA adding to speculation either Amazon or Blu Origin buys ULA. ULA is contracted to deploy Amazon's new mini sat comm link. and Blue Origin is late providing motors to ULA,, now paying penalties.
The former program manager of Blue Origin's BE-4 engines has filed a wrongful termination lawsuit over (he says) being fired for blowing the whistle on safety violations at the company. Apparently the CEO of the company, who recently stepped down, had a very controversial tenure with allegations of sexual harassment and screaming at employees. The lawsuit alleges he would blow his top over various problems and was causing the employees to ignore safety practices.

Separately, I would also say SpaceX needs to redesign the appearance of their New Shepherd rocket, good grief:)
 
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