Yes, the Surface Warfare community is getting more competative. However, I believe this to be indirectly influenced by a number of factors including aviation.
Aviation across the board (all branches) is getting more and more picky about who they choose to fill their respective aviation slots. The economy is stabilizing if not already beginning to head for a valley. The word that there is a "shortage" of pilots in the military is all over the streets. Of course this shortage is because the airlines were hiring like madmen (in part because of the great economy) due in large part to the fact that airline captains were retiring at an overwhelming rate. So now we sit here with aviation packages sitting on the selection boards' desk at an all time high. Can all these people be selected? Nope, no way. So where do the rest go? Well, the navy still has the nuclear power program which simply put, is a pain in the ass to get selected for and even more of a pain in the ass to make it through. Now throw in what I believe is also a strong factor. Answer this. What is that people want the most? Answer: That which they cannot have. So people are beginning to realize that the Surface Warfare community isn't so easy to get after all. Hmmmm...maybe if it's so hard to get, there must be something about it that makes it so great. Whether true or not has no bearing on my theory. Only the appearance matters.
So you've got these 3 factors playing a pretty powerful influence on the SWO community. Aviation isn't taking as many people. Aviation and Nuke land still continue to drop personnel. Due to the decreasing number of SWO billets available, people want it even more, causing an even greater appearance of fewer SWO billets. Add all these together and you've got yourself a competition.
One note: We just went on a two week trip out to sea for training with a short stop in Cabo San Lucas for liberty. On this trip we had an aviation attrite (NFO) come to the ship to determine if he was SWO material. Mind you, he didn't get sent here to see if he liked it. He got sent here so the Navy could evaluate his performance and determine if he was good enough. Talk about a 180 degree difference from about a year and a half ago. I talked to him a bit and he told me that most of the attrites are now being sent General Aviation to a carrier somewhere. What a difference.
This is just my theory, so take it with a grain of salt.
--Steve