It would help if anyone on our side really knew what Russia's objectives are.
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NEWS Russia building barracks at Syrian airport
- Thread starter nittany03
- Start date
It would help if anyone on our side really knew what Russia's objectives are.
Here's what I think Vlad is up to. There's an Islamic civil war going on, from Libya to Yemen. There are a lot of factions, but it's essentially Sunni factions fighting Shi'a, and they're each backed by the big Sunni (Saudi Arabia) and Shi'a (Iran) powers. We've been trying to intervene, not really thinking of it in terms of religious alignment...we just don't think that way. Russia sees an opportunity to shore up a long-standing client in Assad, have a big say in the Iraqi government, and impress Iran - and thus become the patron-benefactor-supplier of the Shia Crescent. Putin doesn't want to start a war with NATO over Syria...but I would bet he would like to show Syria, Iran, and the nascent Iraqi government that Russia can successfully intervene on their behalf, right in NATO's face.
I see a little bit of Franz Ferdinand in this all as well…..in the sense of this possibly being the really big (world war) that nobody saw coming until it was here. Maybe I am paranoid, but all signs lead to a pretty hairy crisis looming, IMO. I was brand new to the world during Able Archer, operation Ryan (or whatever the soviets called it), the deployment of Pioneers, Pershing II and GLCM's to Europe and somehow lived until now……..maybe that was borrowed time…..
I guess it might be good for PR because I can't think of anything else it would be good for.
Source looks legit.
According to that (dubious) source, they have never done an extended deployment, and only a handful of deployments at all in its 25 year history.
Concur. Why is Russia getting entangled in the Mid East with a struggling economy at home? What do they stand to gain? I think the arguments of snubbing US/NATO, being an international jerk/bully, and to curry favor in the Mid East are weak at best. What's the benefit?
Vlad really misses the good old days...............
Yeah, I don't buy the nationalist "restore the glory of Soviet Russia" argument as a reason to get stuck in the Mid East. I agree there's som resurgent Russian nationalism, but how does war in Syria align with Russian nationalistic goals?
Ukraine seems to have reached a certain level of stasis due to economic sanctions. What does involvement in the Mid East get them in the Ukraine? If it's a distraction for some grand assault it's not a very good one. It's not like NATO stopped watching Ukraine because of a few jets in Syria.
Is Assad really that good of an ally?
No, but I'm guessing the Russians think that Iran is, and don't underestimate Putin's cultivation of a cult of personality to keep a grip on power.
What's the benefit to Russia to fight on behalf of Iran? what does Iran give them in return?
I'm also not sure a war is going to strengthen a cult of personality. He already seems to have that one on lockdown. If anything a war gone bad could harm his image. A crappy war in the Mid East was part of the Soviet downfall.
I'm not saying that he's correct. I'm guessing (all un-class, I've been out of the business for a while) that he see's a power vacuum that Iran will fill, and he want's to get in on the ground floor. Iran has a vested interest in saving Syria's ass and he's quite willing to help. I have serious doubts about Russia's ability to sustain an extended, or even a brief expeditionary force in Syria. There's a bigs ass Sunni/Shia war coming, and if the Russians are still there........I agree, they will get chewed up. Hell, I don't know. It's hard to analyze illogical actors. That's always been the west's achilles heel in that part of the world.