They really don't spend too much time agonizing over who to send where. TRACOM is a factory. They do consider what you want, and your grades and performance do factor into it, but overall it's "we need to send X guys here and Y guys there, so let's divvy up this week's class".
- Fill out a dream sheet at each stage (P-grad: Heavies or Tailhook, I-grad: VAW or Strike/Strike-Fighter, Advanced: VAQ or VFA)
- #1 cone in the class gets his/her first choice, barring extraordinary circumstances
- Everyone else, they go down the list and try to match your desire to what they need, but Navy's needs take precedence. So if you really want VP but they don't have any VP billets the week you P-grad, you're out of luck. Or if you want tailhook but you're the last ranked guy in the class and they have to send somebody from your class to VP-30 your week and nobody above you wants it...well, Jax isn't so bad.
- The only way in which I've ever heard grades really factoring into selection (beyond just your NSS rank in the class), was for a while they were drafting the last-place guy in I-grad to go VAW, on the theory that if you were struggling in T-39s, maybe you should go sit in front of a scope with two other dudes to back you up. This lead to an unacceptably high attrition rate at the E-2 RAG, because the reality is, if you're struggling in T-39s, it's probably because you have trouble multitasking, poor scan, etc; i.e., lots of skills you need as an AIC. So they started drafting the #2 guy in each class instead.
- Volunteering is encouraged. They do try to send people where they want to go, if possible. If one guy wants VP and they have one billet, they'll get it (again, barring extraordinary circumstances). I decided I wanted to go VAW halfway through Intermediate. This made me very popular with my intermediate class, because there was one VAW billet and no one else wanted it. I almost got rolled into the next class due to wx delaying my I-grad flights. But I finished up Friday morning, debriefed on the taxi in, went straight from the jet to my I-grad. As soon as I walked in, everyone's head whipped around. "Did you complete?" Yep. "Thank G-d. We were arguing about who had to take the E-2 billet if you didn't."
- Can you estimate your chances? No. Maybe the week you graduate each level of flight training, you can somewhat. There's a lot of factors that are out of your control and totally unpredictable. NSS isn't just your performance, it's your performance relative to the last 100 dudes. Your class rank also depends on who's in your class and how they did, and people roll into and out of classes all the time for a myriad of reasons. You might be #1 but then a guy from the class ahead of you with a better NSS gets wx-delayed and rolls into your class right before I-grad. You might hear all the way through Primary that VFA is behind production and really needs bodies and every class out of -86 is going all VFA. Then the west coast RAG has a mishap and shuts down for three weeks and all of a sudden your class all goes VP. It's a dice roll, really.
- The good news is, it's all good and it's all flying. You may have a particular desire and good reasons to want that thing, but just resign yourself to the idea now that it may not happen and it's largely out of your control, and no matter what you get, odds are you'll end up loving it and talking shit about anyone who does anything else.