I'm not saying that the new system is all that bad. But a guy who is on the fence after 10-12 years has stayed in because he was "over the hump" and might as well walk away with some lasting compensation. If I'm Sgt-SSgt whoever with my CDQAR and I get orders to be a recruiter or drill instructor, I would cut my losses, go to Charles Schwab with my TSP and get in with a new company at 30 years old vs 40 years old. That's just me, and maybe my little thought experiment is flawed, but I see this new retirement system incentivizing those on the fence to get out vice, grind out a few more years and become Maintence Control Chiefs or Division Chiefs.
I don't think it will make that big a difference, I think external factors like the economy and wars have a much greater influence. I guess I am also hoping I am rut and you aren't for the military's sake.