LCDR CONTINUATION

[PropAddict]

Last years selection rate was 70% across all designators, the precept for this year is the same.

Holy shit. . . if the % is fixed by the board precept, then maybe the VP community was actually trying to hook up its bubbas by forcing all the records of eligible folks into the tank (including those who had already dropped letters, lat xfer, FTS, etc.). You can inflate your total by 10-20%, so you can promote more folks who want to stay. . .kind of like requiring the new guy to get an observed FITREP so you can give one more EP. . .

Could it be that they're actually trying to look out for folks, as opposed to artificially reporting inflated numbers to force us into hard fills on USS Boat?

And what the fuck is this red juice in my cup?
Why is it so delicious?
I better put this down.

 

[zippy]

Could it be that they're actually trying to look out for folks, as opposed to artificially reporting inflated numbers to force us into hard fills on USS Boat?

No, its to force the hard fills... them not having people make it doesn't relinquish from their obligations to fill billets with bodies

 

[Pags]

Holy shit. . . if the % is fixed by the board precept, then maybe the VP community was actually trying to hook up its bubbas by forcing all the records of eligible folks into the tank (including those who had already dropped letters, lat xfer, FTS, etc.). You can inflate your total by 10-20%, so you can promote more folks who want to stay. . .kind of like requiring the new guy to get an observed FITREP so you can give one more EP. . .

Could it be that they're actually trying to look out for folks, as opposed to artificially reporting inflated numbers to force us into hard fills on USS Boat?

And what the fuck is this red juice in my cup?
Why is it so delicious?
I better put this down.

I think that's the way it works for all communities.

 

[smittyrunr]

The percentages are only fixed for the promotion boards as set in the precept. BUT, that's only an overall percentage for all URL. I saw a brief last year that broke it down by community (trying to find it to post a link)- while the overall selection percentage was 70%, 1310 and 1320 selected below that 67%/60%- I think VP NFOs selected at 59%. SWOs and subs selected at ~80%

Percentages for the screen boards are not set, and the precepts that I've seen say that even though there is a target number they are looking for to fill the number of DH/CO/XO/etc spots, if there aren't enough qualified, they don't have to select that many. Not that I think it's likely that ever happens.

 

[EODDave]

They also break down 1310 and 1320 by community. Some were over 70% some under.

 

[Jim123]

... I saw a brief last year that broke it down by community (trying to find it to post a link)- while the overall selection percentage was 70%, 1310 and 1320 selected below that 67%/60%- I think VP NFOs selected at 59%. SWOs and subs selected at ~80%

^^^
Pay attention, young'uns- sometimes life isn't fair. A lot of my friends were hit hard by last year's board

No one is going to care about your well-being as much as you, so make sure you have a backup plan.

 

[MIDNJAC]

Are speaking from a pilot perspective? I only ask because I continue to see low numbers for 1320s.

I know EODave doesn't fall under this category, but the word we got from people with white oak leaves on their shoulders indicated that guys who are in the 2007-2011'ish YG timeframe and are VFA will pretty much screen for DH, provided they want to be there. Apparently we are a mega T-notch. Not really related to current DH screen at all, but overall, it seems like the VFA trend over the last couple years has been towards being undermanned. I don't know if that "gouge" is single or dual anchor or both, as my squadron doesn't have WSO's.

edit: I will caveat everything above with the fact that I have no idea how to mount a gold shrub on my shoulder, and my commentary is a little bit like a midshipman giving gouge on fleet squadron selection.......but it is what passed through one ear and pretty much out the other a couple months ago

 

[CommodoreMid]

I know EODave doesn't fall under this category, but the word we got from people with white oak leaves on their shoulders indicated that guys who are in the 2007-2011'ish YG timeframe and are VFA will pretty much screen for DH, provided they want to be there. Apparently we are a mega T-notch. Not really related to current DH screen at all, but overall, it seems like the VFA trend over the last couple years has been towards being undermanned. I don't know if that "gouge" is single or dual anchor or both, as my squadron doesn't have WSO's.

edit: I will caveat everything above with the fact that I have no idea how to mount a gold shrub on my shoulder, and my commentary is a little bit like a midshipman giving gouge on fleet squadron selection.......but it is what passed through one ear and pretty much out the other a couple months ago

We got the same gouge in VP land too...


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

 

[PropAddict]

I guys who are in the 2007-2011'ish YG timeframe and are VFA will pretty much screen for DH, provided they want to be there. Apparently we are a mega T-notch.

I heard the very same from the O-6 at PERS-43. There's a slideshow out there that shows it graphically, with exact numbers. I thought it was like 05 or 06 on the starting side, but I could be mistaken.

They were forced to deliberately under-assess for 1st tour fleet seats, relative to what they knew they'd need. With the bonus all-but drying up, the Wings+8 commitments not having the desired effect, and the impending airline hiring boom, they're projecting larger than normal O-3 resignations, which will only exacerbate the problem. Essentially, they know that going into it, they probably will have fewer bodies than needed, and they will have to forward creep/deep select, which will just kick the can down the road and hopefully not get untenable before the T-notch years are over and there are enough folks in the pool again.

Or, they could just close a couple squadrons and solve it all in one fell swoop, and free up some money at the same time.

 

[smittyrunr]

Or, they could just close a couple squadrons and solve it all in one fell swoop, and free up some money at the same time.

On the VP side... just not transition a couple squadrons...

 

[MIDNJAC]

I heard the very same from the O-6 at PERS-43. There's a slideshow out there that shows it graphically, with exact numbers. I thought it was like 05 or 06 on the starting side, but I could be mistaken.

They were forced to deliberately under-assess for 1st tour fleet seats, relative to what they knew they'd need. With the bonus all-but drying up, the Wings+8 commitments not having the desired effect, and the impending airline hiring boom, they're projecting larger than normal O-3 resignations, which will only exacerbate the problem. Essentially, they know that going into it, they probably will have fewer bodies than needed, and they will have to forward creep/deep select, which will just kick the can down the road and hopefully not get untenable before the T-notch years are over and there are enough folks in the pool again.

Or, they could just close a couple squadrons and solve it all in one fell swoop, and free up some money at the same time.

Yeah it may well have started with the '05/'06 folks......I just couldn't remember.....I know it included my own YG ('08). It will be interesting to see how things play out. It also seems like those projections are only one recession away from being pessimistic. The funny thing is that the entire time I was in the VT's, they kept talking about how they were overmanned, were going to raise standards and cut folks, and that we wouldn't fly at all. I still have yet to have a time when I felt under-employed/under-flown.

 

[PropAddict]

On the VP side... just not transition a couple squadrons...

"We're looking at YOU, Hawaii squadrons. . ."

 

[PropAddict]

I still have yet to have a time when I felt under-employed/under-flown.

I hate you.

What's the DTG of that ALNAV with the community transition instructions, again?

 

[ChunksJR]

^^^
Pay attention, young'uns- sometimes life isn't fair. A lot of my friends were hit hard by last year's board

No one is going to care about your well-being as much as you, so make sure you have a backup plan.

To pile on, there's nothing like a non-selection to really get you to do your own research. I will tell you that if you want a job, the Navy has one.

It may not be flying, but it'll be working with aviators and aviation ops...