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Joint Venezuela-Russian naval exercises

mmx1

Woof!
pilot
Contributor
So where is your argument against further drilling in here? That is what I don't get...Even at demand of 100 barrels of oil a day the wells will eventually run out...then we will need new wells. So why hamstring ourselves with dwindling supply domestically?

Because the reflexive conservative response to any sort of alternative energy plan is "offshore drilling". In the short term this fails, because the marginal increase in production won't even be enough to disturb oil prices. More dangerously, conservatives use it as a reason to reject alternative energy. Assuming we can even get our reserves out of the ground fast enough, is only delaying the inevitable.

If we can get our energy needs routed to alternative sources, then we have reduced oil from an essential commodity to just another piece of crap we dig out of the earth - which plenty of people around the world happen to be selling. The only reason Russia and OPEC hold power over oil is because the world uses so damned much of it. We imported titanium from Russia during the height of the Cold War - because we didn't need it badly enough for them to hold it over our heads.
 

Kickflip89

Below Ladder
None
Contributor
Let's go NUCLEAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Seriously. We have the capacity to build more plants and generate energy for the entire nation at a cost that is much less than what we pay for foreign oil.

If we could get past people not wanting a plant near their home then well we might be onto something there.

Are you telling me this sucker's NUCLEAR!?!?!?

mr_fusion.jpg
 

AJB37

Well-Known Member
Are you telling me this sucker's NUCLEAR!?!?!?

mr_fusion.jpg

The funny thing about that is we could conceivably get energy from decomposing waste, feces, and other sewage... granted not at a high enough efficiency to send a flying car to the future, but it could be a good system to power remote areas and third world countries.
 

LazersGoPEWPEW

4500rpm
Contributor
The funny thing about that is we could conceivably get energy from decomposing waste, feces, and other sewage... granted not at a high enough efficiency to send a flying car to the future, but it could be a good system to power remote areas and third world countries.

Or a smart way of eliminating trash.
 

Bevo16

Registered User
pilot
No, it's pretty much true:
crap.jpg


Data comes from the US DOE. You're looking for the "unavailable for leasing" numbers.

I really don't know what point you are trying to make. The chart from "ecogeek.org" is totally misleading, and probably intentionally so.

The "new offshore drilling" in that chart obviously does not tap into this:

squorch2's article said:
Mean estimates from the MMS indicate that technically recoverable resources currently off limits in the lower 48 OCS total 18 billion barrels of crude oil and 77 trillion cubic feet of natural gas (Table 10).

18 Billion barrels of crude oil can go a long way.
 

scoolbubba

Brett327 gargles ballsacks
pilot
Contributor
Let's go NUCLEAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Seriously. We have the capacity to build more plants and generate energy for the entire nation at a cost that is much less than what we pay for foreign oil.

If we could get past people not wanting a plant near their home then well we might be onto something there.

Similar to a reason why gasoline prices are so volatile. Oil plays a part in the price, but the real culprit lies in the lack of refining capability. We haven't built a new refinery since the 70's. With demand skyrocketing, we will piss and moan about gas prices, but no one is willing to put a nasty industrial park in to help the issue. Corpus has a bunch, they are ugly, but I don't see gas stations putting signs out that say "no gas here" or gas at a dollar a gallon more than the rest of the country a la Atlanta.

The ability of a few people to essentially sue progress to a standstill is absurd.
 

mmx1

Woof!
pilot
Contributor
I really don't know what point you are trying to make. The chart from "ecogeek.org" is totally misleading, and probably intentionally so.
Ah, the old "I don't agree with the info, so I'll just attack the source" trick. How exactly is it "misleading" or even "intentionally so", sir? All the ecogeek picture do was superimpose the DoE data on global production, which is what is relevant when considering prices. This was the original DoE data:

figure_20.gif


The "new offshore drilling" in that chart obviously does not tap into this:
18 Billion barrels of crude oil can go a long way.
Do you have any experience in the oil industry to back up your gut instinct, or are you just going to say it doesn't "feel" right? You are aware the data comes rom the same article? Because the article goes on to say (.gov publication - not copyrighted so I can quote)
The projections in the OCS access case indicate that access to the Pacific, Atlantic, and eastern Gulf regions would not have a significant impact on domestic crude oil and natural gas production or prices before 2030.
...
Total domestic production of crude oil from 2012 through 2030 in the OCS access case is projected to be 1.6 percent higher than in the reference case, and 3 percent higher in 2030 alone, at 5.6 million barrels per day.
...
For the lower 48 OCS, annual crude oil production in 2030 is projected to be 7 percent higher
...
Because oil prices are determined on the international market, however, any impact on average wellhead prices is expected to be insignificant.
... the average field size in the Pacific and Atlantic regions tends to be smaller than the average in the Gulf of Mexico, implying that a significant portion of the additional resource would not be economically attractive to develop at the reference case prices.
 

squorch2

he will die without safety brief
pilot
I really don't know what point you are trying to make. The chart from "ecogeek.org" is totally misleading, and probably intentionally so.
You say it's misleading but don't say how. But that's okay, I'll do the research.

From http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/anwr/pdf/sroiaf(2008)03.pdf, page 1:
In 1998, the USGS estimated that between 5.7 and 16.0 billion barrels of technically recoverable oil are in the coastal plain area of ANWR (also referred to as the 1002 Area), with a mean estimate of 10.4 billion barrels, of which 7.7 billion barrels falls within the Federal portion of the ANWR 1002 Area.

The key number there is actually the 7.7 billion. From the DOE site I linked earlier, there are about 18 billion barrels estimated to be in the "unavailable for leasing" areas that the GOP would like to open up for exploration. That's about 2.3 times what's estimated to be in ANWR.

Now from the executive summary of the above PDF:
Additional oil production resulting from the opening of ANWR would be only a small portion of total world oil production, and would likely be offset in part by somewhat lower production outside the United States. The opening of ANWR is projected to have its largest oil price reduction impacts as follows: a reduction in low-sulfur, light crude oil prices of $0.41 per barrel (2006 dollars) in 2026 for the low oil resource case, $0.75 per barrel in 2025 for the mean oil resource case, and $1.44 per barrel in 2027 for the high oil resource case, relative to the reference case.
I'll be generous and go with the high oil case. 2.3 times $1.44 = $3.31. That's how much the price of a barrel of crude would come down if you were to "drill here, drill now" - and that's not until 2027. For comparison, the price of crude rose about $16 today to about $120. So in 2027, assuming oil prices stay the same, you would have a savings of about 3% on crude. At its peak.

I would say lets work on alternative energy sources and ways to power the economy that are renewable - but hey, I posted a misleading chart, so what do I know? :)

(on preview, I see mmx1 did a bit of research as well.)
 

Flash

SEVAL/ECMO
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
That first statement may or may not be true. I would like to see us try. I'll be that we can get pretty damn close. We can damn sure produce enough to eliminate the need to import from Hugo Chavez. Every Citgo you drive past is paying for Uncle Hugo's MiG's.

I have never heard any legitimate energy expert say that we could wean ourselves off of foreign oil with domestic oil and gas production. The oil shale reserves in the US are likely not easily recoverable or very economical if they are.

18 Billion barrels of crude oil can go a long way.

Eighteen billion barrels would only replace about 4 years of petroleum imports to our country. We can't drill our way out of it.

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/cfapps/STE...onth=1&endYear=2009&endMonth=12&tableNumber=9
 

loadtoad

Well-Known Member
pilot
Contributor
The oil shale reserves in the US are likely not easily recoverable or very economical if they are.


My wife's mother is a Geophysicist who works for Exxon Mobile. Her job is to evaluate whether or not to drill at potential sites due to chances of oil actually being there. Her husband is also big in the oil biz but I am not sure what he does. After having long talks with them about everything that is going on it Flash's statement is basically dead on to what they have said. Oil is getting harder and more expensive to find and will continue that way for ever. The only question is how much are we going to be willing to pay in the end...
 

nittany03

Recovering NFO. Herder of Programmers.
pilot
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
OK, back on topic, I just Googled what is heading down there and apparently everyone is hyperventilating over a Kirov and an Udaloy. One fairly badass, the other . . . umm . . . yeah, notsomuch.
 

Flash

SEVAL/ECMO
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
OK, back on topic, I just Googled what is heading down there and apparently everyone is hyperventilating over a Kirov and an Udaloy. One fairly badass, the other . . . umm . . . yeah, notsomuch.

They would be great targets for a WASEX! ;)
 
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