Europe under extreme duress

[JTS11]

Interesting article on what UKR has been doing in the Crimea area in the last few months.

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(Don't worry about the site. It's a repost of a NYT article).

Jet ski raids from the Black Sea! They seem to be countering RUS navy well, without having a real navy of their own.

 

[number9]

Free NYT article link: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/22/...e_code=1.40w.oPZz._L0h8_L4vccj&smid=url-share

 

[Randy Daytona]

The odd part is that recent events are driven by something entirely different than old Cold War tensions but more like those before WWII. From my work in history it is interesting to see how fast “The End of History and the Last Man,” Fukuyama, has failed as a theory but what we are seeing isn’t exactly Huntington, “Clash of Civilizations”…or is it? If you read both of them together it paints an interesting story of contemporary politics where we find Biden, an “End of History” kind of guy being challenged by a “Clash of Civilizations” world crisis.

First Ukraine (which I could see permanently split along the Dnieper River) and now the possibility of another Mideast War. Time to re-read Samuel Huntington’s “Clash of Civilizations”.

 

[nittany03]

First Ukraine (which I could see permanently split along the Dnieper River) and now the possibility of another Mideast War. Time to re-read Samuel Huntington’s “Clash of Civilizations”.

I'd bet a bottle of something good the Russians have zero chance of making the Dnipro. Worst case scenario is like Korea where both sides culminate along the actual FLOT.

 

[Randy Daytona]

I'd bet a bottle of something good the Russians have zero chance of making the Dnipro. Worst case scenario is like Korea where both sides culminate along the actual FLOT.

Traditionally the Russians just bleed out their opponents. Since Ukraine will not receive boots on the ground from either the US or Europe, I could see this war ending up the same way even if it takes a couple of years.

Interesting article in The Hill about US Army manpower (or lack thereof) with a number of links discussing the possibility of a draft.

Bring back the draft? A divisive home-front battle will loom over any major war

Serious military theorists are now asserting that the U.S. military’s longstanding all-volunteer character is outmoded.

thehill.com

 

[nittany03]

Traditionally the Russians just bleed out their opponents. Since Ukraine will not receive boots on the ground from either the US or Europe, I could see this war ending up the same way even if it takes a couple of years.

Interesting article in The Hill about US Army manpower (or lack thereof) with a number of links discussing the possibility of a draft.

Bring back the draft? A divisive home-front battle will loom over any major war

Serious military theorists are now asserting that the U.S. military’s longstanding all-volunteer character is outmoded.

thehill.com

Step 1: Figure out just why we as a military and a society are failing so horribly at convincing Gen Z that the military is an honorable career choice, and that the Constitution is worth preserving, protecting, and defending. It's like everything else where people bitch about "kids these days." They're making their own decisions based on incentives and beliefs which are rational to them . . . so if you don't like those choices, why is your choice not attractive, and what are you doing to use your First Amendment right to sell it to other people?

 

[Average Monke]

Step 1: Figure out just why we as a military and a society are failing so horribly at convincing Gen Z that the military is an honorable career choice, and that the Constitution is worth preserving, protecting, and defending. It's like everything else where people bitch about "kids these days." They're making their own decisions based on incentives and beliefs which are rational to them . . . so if you don't like those choices, why is your choice not attractive, and what are you doing to use your First Amendment right to sell it to other people?

Sounds very similar to the conversation about lack of voter participation and quality.

 

[Random8145]

For all of the talk of equality in our society and Hollywood portrayals of women being as tough or tougher than men, I wonder how well all this would hold up with a draft? Because a truly equal draft would pull both men and women, especially since the combat arms roles have been opened up to women. So 18 year-old college girls would get drafted the same as guys that age. I just can't imagine it would play out like that though.

 

[hscs]

Traditionally the Russians just bleed out their opponents. Since Ukraine will not receive boots on the ground from either the US or Europe, I could see this war ending up the same way even if it takes a couple of years.

Interesting article in The Hill about US Army manpower (or lack thereof) with a number of links discussing the possibility of a draft.

Bring back the draft? A divisive home-front battle will loom over any major war

Serious military theorists are now asserting that the U.S. military’s longstanding all-volunteer character is outmoded.

thehill.com

A lot at play here IMHO.

- When the population is bombarded by media talking about PTSD in vets, why would people volunteer? I bet numbers were similar in 1974-5 on the volunteer force.

- We are fighting against a tight labor market. We invented CCC during the dot com boom when we couldn’t keep anyone. The Navy actually sent a lot of people home during the late 2000s, early 2010s when people wanted to join.

- A draft has never been this great, harmonious centering event. There have been draft riots in our country from the beginning.

- The article does anger me by saying military service would hamper development. I see way too much where our schools have failed our kids, and we provide the skills to adult and succeed in life.

In the end, the article is short sighted and misses the point of the problem.

 

[Mirage]

Step 1: Figure out just why we as a military and a society are failing so horribly at convincing Gen Z that the military is an honorable career choice, and that the Constitution is worth preserving, protecting, and defending. It's like everything else where people bitch about "kids these days." They're making their own decisions based on incentives and beliefs which are rational to them . . . so if you don't like those choices, why is your choice not attractive, and what are you doing to use your First Amendment right to sell it to other people?

That would require our flag officers to imagine a world where everyone doesn't think and make career decisions exactly like they do.

For all of the talk of equality in our society and Hollywood portrayals of women being as tough or tougher than men, I wonder how well all this would hold up with a draft? Because a truly equal draft would pull both men and women, especially since the combat arms roles have been opened up to women. So 18 year-old college girls would get drafted the same as guys that age. I just can't imagine it would play out like that though.

A large percentage of our ruling elite can't tell you what a woman or a man even are. I have a feeling they'd remember really quick if it came time to draft only men, though.

 

[Brett327]

A men only draft today would get struck down hard in the courts. That said, this country isn’t going to have a draft again. Even in a war with China.

 

[nittany03]

A men only draft today would get struck down hard in the courts. That said, this country isn’t going to have a draft again. Even in a war with China.

And three years ago, the idea that we would be having a major land war in Europe that risked bogging down into a WWI-style stalemate would have gotten you laughed out of the room. Obviously, everything would be "hybrid warfare" in the future, because war is expensive and Gerasimov and Putin were operational and strategic evil geniuses.

"Never" is a very big word, and often times people who use it don't realize just how big a word it is. Planning for conscription these days is squarely in the realm of "unlikely, but if you don't have a BPLAN or Commanders' Estimate gathering dust on the shelf, you're probably wrong."

 

[Brett327]

And three years ago, the idea that we would be having a major land war in Europe that risked bogging down into a WWI-style stalemate would have gotten you laughed out of the room. Obviously, everything would be "hybrid warfare" in the future, because war is expensive and Gerasimov and Putin were operational and strategic evil geniuses.

"Never" is a very big word, and often times people who use it don't realize just how big a word it is. Planning for conscription these days is squarely in the realm of "unlikely, but if you don't have a BPLAN or Commanders' Estimate gathering dust on the shelf, you're probably wrong."

I didn’t say never. I basically implied that it won’t happen given the current geopolitical configuration.

Everybody thinks about WWII as a context, but I don’t know if that kind of scenario is even possible, given how the presence of nuclear weapons alters everyone’s calculus.

In any case, I’m not sure I agree with your assessment that what is happening in Ukraine is totally novel or unforeseen. Given Russia’s military actions in Georgia, and elsewhere, this is a pattern we’ve seen before. They tried to assassinate Ukrainian President apparent Viktor Yushchenko almost 20 years ago. That Putin decided to go kinetic in a big way was certainly a big excursion, we cannot claim that it was completely out of the blue.

 

[sevenhelmet]

In the past-discussed vein of Europe solving its own problems, looks like that’s proving harder than one might think:

North Korea sends Putin tons of ammo. Europe can't do the same for Ukraine — POLITICO

Pyongyang beats the EU in supplying shells to the guns in Ukraine.

apple.news

 

[Mirage]

In the past-discussed vein of Europe solving its own problems, looks like that’s proving harder than one might think:

North Korea sends Putin tons of ammo. Europe can't do the same for Ukraine — POLITICO

Pyongyang beats the EU in supplying shells to the guns in Ukraine.

apple.news

Link didn't open the article properly. Aside from the fact we haven't given Europe space to solve their own problems, can you expand on your reasoning?