COVID-19

[wiseguy04]

Yes. When we thought this was going to kill at a minimum of one hundred million Americans, it made sense to shut things down for a while and gather some data on this.

Again, did we shutdown to avoid ALL deaths from this? I recall shutting down to avoid overwhelming the hospitals and ICUs and getting all the nurses and doctors too sick to work. Well, now that hospitals are empty and they’re laying off employees, it seems like we’ve flattened the curve. If the system starts getting overwhelmed again, we can reverse the decision. But we’ve changed the goalposts. Now the rhetoric from some leaders is we can’t open back up the economy until there’s a vaccine.

As a country we need to refocus our efforts on flattening the unemployment curve. Because that drain on state and national resources is already starting to overwhelm state budgets much more so than our hospitals (outside of possibly NYC) were overwhelmed by covid patients.

Agreed. The shutdown has served its purpose, which was to prevent hospitals from getting overwhelmed in the beginning. We’re past that now.

If some people want to continue hiding under their beds and ordering Grubhub for the rest of their life, that’s fine. I really don’t care. I’m just tired of these scared idiots saying that the rest of us need to hide under our beds as well.

But I don’t think it will last long. The doomsayers will begin to feel foolish when they see the smart families taking CHEAP flights to exotic locations and enjoying life, while the doomsayers are still hiding under the covers clutching their N95 masks.

Just because some people are scared shouldn’t mean that the rest of us need to stay home. And social distancing can’t last forever. It’s impractical.

 

[Hair Warrior]

I'm no economist but beyond reflecting on the bad numbers has anyone seen any sort of analysis about how this is different because it based on force of nature? I heard someone smart (name escapes me) a few weeks ago discussing how the impacts to the job market are different than a standard recession because of the causal factors.

Off the cuff:

In other types of recession, businesses (through the free hand of the market) will have certain variation in profits and losses within and across industries. Some businesses fail faster because they were on the downslope already. Others are able to claw and hang on. Perfect case example is 2008-09 when GM needed the huge federal bailout but Ford narrowly avoided it. Both motor companies were in tough spots but it wasn't an identical outcome.

In this recession, because all of the retail and hospitality businesses are going from status quo to near-zero revenue overnight, due to state and municipal governments mandating their closure, it's all happening simultaneously to entire industry sectors. If you're a waiter or hairdresser and your business is shut, you can't just apply for a similar job in another restaurant or hair salon, and you can't freelance - because everyone's shut by decree. In previous recessions, these businesses didn't all shut on the same day, so people had chances (sometimes slim chances) to pivot and get new jobs in town if their business went under.

I'm not saying we shouldn't have shut all the businesses. Coronavirus needs to be taken seriously. But in economist terms, that overnight and statewide shutdown is a variable that wasn't present in the downturns of 2008, 2000, 1987, or the Carter presidency years.

 

[robav8r]

Panic and fear are resultant emotions stemming from frightful news. Doc says you have cancer, causes fear, maybe panic in your spouse. I can't say how much panic and fear is out there. When you see people wanting to go back to work, protesting for the opportunity, you might think they are not so fearful. BUT, as I said before, it is clear the media has skewed their coverage to the negative and worse case. Harping on raw numbers without regard to rates. Making illogical comparisons to smaller countries, not being forthright about who is at risk and what the chances of hospitalization or death in normal healthy citizens are in various regions of the country. The list is long. Has it caused panic and fear, sure. A significant amount, not so sure. But it has been irresponsible how the media has portrayed much of the outbreak in the country.

Great post wink . . .

 

[SlickAg]

Doesn’t the area under the yellow curve (the integral) represent job creation since 2008? Seems like another misleading graph but you’ve got a pretty good track record and I’m sure you vet your sources and aren’t a sycophant or anything...

Hey buddy, found you a picture sort of proving what I said. The circles are mine though. I’m sure that taints the value of the written word though.

Here’s the link to the article if you want to read it. There’s a graph in it too but I didn’t know if it met your high standards or not. It’s CBS so hopefully it isn’t too deep state

Roughly 1 in 7 U.S. workers are now jobless — CBS News

Roughly 1 in 7 workers is now jobless as the coronavirus pandemic shuttered large portions of the U.S. economy.

apple.news

 

[wink]

WRT the recovery. The debate has been about the private sector. Do not forget, State and local governments are losing boatloads of revenue due to reduced economic actively. State and local governments cannot deficit spend. They can not print money. They either get loans through bond issues or adapt to lower revenues. In the short term, it will simply be making do. While this may result in reduced services by your local government, the primary impacts on the recovery will be the local governments not spending in the economy for everything from fuel to construction projects like the new library or jail or bridge repair to hiring new employees. This will impact the recovery as well.

 

[magnetfreezer]

Panic and fear on who's part? You keep talking about this panic and fear but shutting many things down was on the advice of public health professionals, who else should we listen to during this situation?

The public health professionals may not be wrong, but the problem was not listening to a balance of all their SMEs - economic, constitutional law (for some of the measures now being challenged, etc.) The 100% public health / disease containment answer may be to shut down everything, but the leader's job is to balance the inputs on health risk with those of health/life risk to population from poverty, economic damage of sickness vs shutdown, cost per life saved, etc. Just like NAMI/ a non mission connected flight doc - they have nothing to lose by saying "no" and being conservative, because they don't bear the responsibility for impact to manning/mission.

 

[taxi1]

They’ve had action plans for these sort of pandemics, and been running war games, for decades. Not that the current administration actually followed one, but it’d be interesting to compare predicted versus actual.

 

[SlickAg]

Perhaps they should’ve war gamed 1) being lied to by the government where the outbreak started and 2) not being able to rely on the WHO for accurate information.

Here’s a transcript of a speech the director of the WHO gave on March 3rd.

“First, COVID-19 does not transmit as efficiently as influenza, from the data we have so far.
With influenza, people who are infected but not yet sick are major drivers of transmission, which does not appear to be the case for COVID-19.
Evidence from China is that only 1% of reported cases do not have symptoms, and most of those cases develop symptoms within 2 days.”

WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 - 3 March 2020

www.who.int

 

[taxi1]

It is always someone else’s fault, isn’t it?

 

[Randy Daytona]

Someone previously asked about international trade. Anyone want to venture a guess on how the virus is going to impact global supply chains? Interesting article that seem to suggest the status quo is changing.

Japan to pay firms to leave China, relocate production elsewhere as part of coronavirus stimulus
More than US$2 billion of the country’s record economic stimulus package will be used to help companies move production away from China

Japan set to pay its manufacturers to leave China

The country’s record stimulus package to try to offset the effects of the pandemic includes US$2 billion for companies shifting production back to Japan.

www.scmp.com

 

[ABMD]

Someone previously asked about international trade. Anyone want to venture a guess on how the virus is going to impact global supply chains? Interesting article that seem to suggest the status quo is changing.

Japan to pay firms to leave China, relocate production elsewhere as part of coronavirus stimulus
More than US$2 billion of the country’s record economic stimulus package will be used to help companies move production away from China

Japan set to pay its manufacturers to leave China

The country’s record stimulus package to try to offset the effects of the pandemic includes US$2 billion for companies shifting production back to Japan.

www.scmp.com

I wouldn't be surprised if this isn't the last we hear of this sorta thing happening. If this doesn't spur manufacturing back home for many countries I don't know what will.

 

[Flash]

Yes. When we thought this was going to kill at a minimum of one hundred million Americans, it made sense to shut things down for a while and gather some data on this.

Again, did we shutdown to avoid ALL deaths from this? I recall shutting down to avoid overwhelming the hospitals and ICUs and getting all the nurses and doctors too sick to work. Well, now that hospitals are empty and they’re laying off employees, it seems like we’ve flattened the curve. If the system starts getting overwhelmed again, we can reverse the decision. But we’ve changed the goalposts. Now the rhetoric from some leaders is we can’t open back up the economy until there’s a vaccine.

No need to wildly exaggerate the numbers to make your point.

While some hospitals might be 'empty' and laying off employees some are still dealign with a larger number of patients with the virus. Just because a hospital in one place, or several, is not overwhelmed doesn't mean our health system has got a handle on this overall. And yes, some of the advice is evolving but the medical professionals are learning as they go as well to a degree, as this is a new virus and a lot of what works and doesn't work with respect to it is still unknown, but they are the best folks though to figure out a way ahead that will keep everyone as safe as possible.

Panic and fear are resultant emotions stemming from frightful news. Doc says you have cancer, causes fear, maybe panic in your spouse. I can't say how much panic and fear is out there. When you see people wanting to go back to work, protesting for the opportunity, you might think they are not so fearful. BUT, as I said before, it is clear the media has skewed their coverage to the negative and worse case. Harping on raw numbers without regard to rates. Making illogical comparisons to smaller countries, not being forthright about who is at risk and what the chances of hospitalization or death in normal healthy citizens are in various regions of the country. The list is long. Has it caused panic and fear, sure. A significant amount, not so sure. But it has been irresponsible how the media has portrayed much of the outbreak in the country.

I love the fact that folks seem to think that 'the media' is some omnipresent entity that somehow decides to do x and y liek some cabal that decides prices. Some media outlets have done better than others reporting on this virus but the only panic they are causing is with folks who allow themselves to panic, kind of like blaming murderous tendencies on Twinkies or the neighbor's dog.

 

[Flash]

Someone previously asked about international trade. Anyone want to venture a guess on how the virus is going to impact global supply chains? Interesting article that seem to suggest the status quo is changing.

Unfortunately that doesn't mean a whole lot of jobs will come with them, even if they do move back 'home'. Manufacturing has gotten a lot more efficient and less manual-intensive in many industries over the years, even if those industries had never left the number of folks employed by them will still have dropped precipitously over the years.

 

[Ken_gone_flying]

It is always someone else’s fault, isn’t it?

Not always. But if you refuse to place any blame on China or the WHO, that’s simply your hate for Trump and nothing else.

 

[Hair Warrior]

State and local governments cannot deficit spend. They can not print money.