COVID-19

[taxi1]

Can we not look at Sweden and Norway since they’ve already begun their “experiment”?

Yup, Sweden is “leading the way” on relaxed restrictions. We will have some good data come May. They’re way ahead of Norway and Finland combined in deaths and rate.

 

[Sonog]

Sweden and Norway didn’t lockdown. They’re doing relatively fine.

And now Italy and Germany are both looking at their way forward after their lockdowns. The cure shouldn’t be worse than the illness.

Here’s another thing to think about. Drs. Birx and Fauci took oaths to prevent any unnecessary death. Of course they’ll be in favor of lockdown, just like the bioethicist MD who was largely responsible for Obamacare who said we should lockdown for 12-18 months. The medical field looks at events through their own lens. Economists too.Nations and communities assume risk every day by conducting their normal business. What would happen if we shut down the interstate highway system to prevent car accident deaths? Aviators should especially understand this principle. The safest thing to do is to not fly. But that’s not an option. Come up with a plan, communicate the plan, execute the plan, debrief the plan, make changes next time.

Okay, what the fuck is going on here? These posts should not be normalized. This is saying lets just accept 1-2 million dead and move on... Economists who have any head on their shoulders know we need to suck it up and shut down extreme so we can minimize the amount of time that we shutdown in the long run.

 

[Alpha_Echo_606]

Okay, what the fuck is going on here? These posts should not be normalized. This is saying lets just accept 1-2 million dead and move on... Economists who have any head on their shoulders know we need to suck it up and shut down extreme so we can minimize the amount of time that we shutdown in the long run.

Now that's just crazy talk!

 

[SlickAg]

Yup, Sweden is “leading the way” on relaxed restrictions. We will have some good data come May. They’re way ahead of Norway and Finland combined in deaths and rate.

So what’s different about Norway and Finland?

 

[SlickAg]

Okay, what the fuck is going on here? These posts should not be normalized. This is saying lets just accept 1-2 million dead and move on... Economists who have any head on their shoulders know we need to suck it up and shut down extreme so we can minimize the amount of time that we shutdown in the long run.

I hate to break it to you, but over 50 million people across the world die each year. In fact, the leading cause of death is life. So I think it’s been normalized. Airplanes have killed people. LOTS of them. Did you lose it and turn in your wings because of that?

The models don’t indicate 1-2 million dead anymore, or did I miss the latest update? They added somewhere around 1400, so the latest projection was 61,000+. For perspective, the 2018 flu season saw around 80,000 deaths.

We need to start formulating a plan, as a country, with how we move on from this. 10% of the nation’s work force is unemployed. That number is going up by the day. The major factor that got America out of the Great Depression was World War Two. A war with China wouldn’t help in the same way I don’t think.

Are Germany and Italy normalizing deaths for trying to move forward too, or is it just America (President Trump?) that’s crazy?

 

[Flash]

Sweden and Norway didn’t lockdown. They’re doing relatively fine.

Sweden didn't lock down, Norway largely did.

Yup, Sweden is “leading the way” on relaxed restrictions. We will have some good data come May. They’re way ahead of Norway and Finland combined in deaths and rate.

So what’s different about Norway and Finland?

They did largely lock down along with Denmark, Sweden is the outlier in the region, that's why their infection and death rates are much lower.

 

[Pags]

But two weeks ago the model from the University of Washington that factored in the social distancing guidelines estimated there were going to be 100,000 - 240,000 deaths in the US by August 4th. That same model was updated a week later, using the same factors to 60,000 deaths in the US. There are too many factors for these models to be anywhere near accurate, and that’s been proven. So far these models have done nothing but panic society and prove that they’re unreliable.

They've also been updated with real world numbers that are driven by better behaviors. Because we've done what they asked us to do the numbers are looking better. Which is a good thing. Maybe spring warming up is helping too? No one seems to quite know that one. And we want updated models so leadership can use them to accurately and logically forecast when we can restart.

When the president is making these decisions it's not like he just has Fauci and Birx there discussing options. I'm sure he has the economists and other "functional leads/SMEs" providing him their perspectives as well. He then balances all the inputs and makes a decision. It's not like Fauci and Birx are making all the decisions.

We'll get to a point where we can restart. China has, it took them months. Parts of Europe are starting to come down the backside of the case loads, other parts like France and Spain, have yet to conclusively peak. Parts of the US, especially ones that aggressively shut down, may be peaking soon. Other parts havent peaked yet. But being able to predict where each location is in that case load is important for good decision making.

 

[MattWSU]

Not surprised that one of the side effects of social distancing successfully flattening the curve is people demanding to stop all restrictions because clearly "we just overreacted." Fuck it, let's go back to normal. We won.

 

[Spekkio]

I hate to break it to you, but over 50 million people across the world die each year. In fact, the leading cause of death is life. So I think it’s been normalized. Airplanes have killed people. LOTS of them. Did you lose it and turn in your wings because of that?

The models don’t indicate 1-2 million dead anymore, or did I miss the latest update? They added somewhere around 1400, so the latest projection was 61,000+. For perspective, the 2018 flu season saw around 80,000 deaths.

Again, those models inexplicably assume the disease peaks in April-May then disappears entirely from the Earth on Aug 4th with no vaccination. This doesn't match the progression of our most recent pandemic with the swine flu.

Models should start with fitting reality (e.g. the swine flu), then it's a matter of manipulating coefficients and developing plans to attack the ones that have the highest sensitivity on the outcome.

If COVID-19 spreads twice as aggressively and is 10x deadlier than swine flu, then a projection of only 5x more total deaths is way off.

Under the current estimated rate of hospitalizations and deaths, we'll have to social distance for at least two years to keep the rate of spread within healthcare capacity. If the hospitalization or death rate is off by half, then that's a full year. If they're off by a factor of 10, we shouldn't have ever shut down the country in the first place.

 

[HAL Pilot]

 

[Sonog]

I hate to break it to you, but over 50 million people across the world die each year. In fact, the leading cause of death is life. So I think it’s been normalized. Airplanes have killed people. LOTS of them. Did you lose it and turn in your wings because of that?

The models don’t indicate 1-2 million dead anymore, or did I miss the latest update? They added somewhere around 1400, so the latest projection was 61,000+. For perspective, the 2018 flu season saw around 80,000 deaths.

We need to start formulating a plan, as a country, with how we move on from this. 10% of the nation’s work force is unemployed. That number is going up by the day. The major factor that got America out of the Great Depression was World War Two. A war with China wouldn’t help in the same way I don’t think.

Are Germany and Italy normalizing deaths for trying to move forward too, or is it just America (President Trump?) that’s crazy?

How many people died in planes in the last year?

Those projections are with mitigation and shutdowns in place. Flu season doesn't overwhelm hospitals.

 

[IKE]

Not surprised that one of the side effects of social distancing successfully flattening the curve is people demanding to stop all restrictions because clearly "we just overreacted." Fuck it, let's go back to normal. We won.

 

[Spekkio]

View attachment 25092

Looks like we still haven't learned how to develop exit strategy.

 

[SlickAg]

Not surprised that one of the side effects of social distancing successfully flattening the curve is people demanding to stop all restrictions because clearly "we just overreacted." Fuck it, let's go back to normal. We won.

Who’s demanding to stop all restrictions? Lockdowns and shutting down economies and commerce simply cannot go on forever. Our countries will cease to exist. There can be a balance of protecting the most vulnerable while taking measured steps to open back up the economy.

Serious question, do you and all the other Coronabros think it’s realistic to keep things the way they are for the next six months? Year? Most Americans can’t telework. They’ll lose their livelihoods. A huge percentage of Americans don’t even have $1,000 in a savings account. Are you going to give up half of your paycheck to cover them? Demand the Treasury starts printing more money to handle the trillions of dollars of government initiatives? What’s your answer, because you sure don’t seem to like the idea of getting the ball rolling again.

 

[MattWSU]

Who’s demanding to stop all restrictions? Lockdowns and shutting down economies and commerce simply cannot go on forever. Our countries will cease to exist. There can be a balance of protecting the most vulnerable while taking measured steps to open back up the economy.

Serious question, do you and all the other Coronabros think it’s realistic to keep things the way they are for the next six months? Year? Most Americans can’t telework. They’ll lose their livelihoods. A huge percentage of Americans don’t even have $1,000 in a savings account. Are you going to give up half of your paycheck to cover them? Demand the Treasury starts printing more money to handle the trillions of dollars of government initiatives? What’s your answer, because you sure don’t seem to like the idea of getting the ball rolling again.

“Corona bro”...come on dude. Do I reply to your hyperbole? Your ad hominem is telling me you’re not worth my time.