Your take on UAV's impact

[utswimmer37]

Does anyone think the role or requirement for a pilot will drastically change over the next 5-10 years because of a greater reliance on unmanned aerial vehicles? From an outside - in perspective it seems as if the roles of flight operations oriented personnel may be in greater demand than pilots themselves. I know the dogfighting and instinct/reaction of a pilot argument always finds its way into this conversation but in all reality will having 50 drones that can perform recon, ecm and attack roles be more realistic/efficient from a budgeting and safety standpoint? Main question is if people starting out in the SNA pipeline need to worry about job security; i.e. possibly being forced out of aviation due to over staffing? My personal interest revolves around aeronautics so I would be more than happy in either role, NA or NFO, but didn't know if anyone with exposure to this subject had any advice for those starting out down the path of naval aviation. Could a pilot possibly transfer to a role as an NFO should a drastic decrease in staffing requirements for pilots take place? It seemed like this is a legitimate question so I figured I'd ask.

 

[Notorious Nate]

It seems that one of the largest DoD acquisitions of the century has been the completely manned F-35, so I honestly think you'll be fine for the next 20 or so years.

 

[utswimmer37]

It seems that one of the largest DoD acquisitions of the century has been the completely manned F-35, so I honestly think you'll be fine for the next 20 or so years.

That program is almost inheriting the too big to fail rationale. Half billion program and planes that are highly unreliable, from a software standpoint. It'll be interesting to watch it unfold.

 

[Notorious Nate]

Also keep in mind that there are only two X-47Bs, which are slated optimistically to enter service toward the end of the decade. There are also only two MQ-4 Tritons as well. I doubt Naval Aviation will go completely unmanned soon enough to interfere with your career. If it does, you can always get some UAV training and then pick up a sweet contract job after you get out.

 

[BusyBee604]

The future crop of prospective NAs/NFOs that may have to worry about this realistically... have yet to be born. The time spent worrying about something over which we have no clue, nor control, can be better spent studying for OCS/API/A/C systems/procedures, etv.; OR chasing ladies, swilling beer, beachcombing et.al., NOT necessarily in that order. Hookers & blow not considered 'career milestones' for aviation aspirants!
BzB

 

[Renegade One]

Unmanned systems may have an increasingly important niche role…usually defined within the construct of "Dull, dangerous or dirty". They can do 24-36 hour missions like nobody else. They can also be flown into chem/bio environments where you might think twice about sending carbon-based life-forms. You might have to dump them at sea vice recovering, if their data can be off-loaded, but we're not there yet. As to the dangerous stuff…well, we'll see. Naval Aviation has a long history of doing exactly that, so, again, I'm not sure we're really there yet.

Recall, too, that we were using BQM-34s (I think) on many, many photo-recce missions over Hanoi and Haiphong in the old "Buffalo Hunter" program, so this isn't exactly much new, although time will tell.

As BzB said: The folks that need to worry about job security haven't been born yet.

 

[wink]

Also keep in mind that there are only two X-47Bs, which are slated optimistically to enter service toward the end of the decade. There are also only two MQ-4 Tritons as well. I doubt Naval Aviation will go completely unmanned soon enough to interfere with your career. If it does, you can always get some UAV training and then pick up a sweet contract job after you get out.

THE X-47B will never go into fleet service. They were technology demonstrators. The follow on aircraft will likely be very different. Haven't even been identified yet.

 

[utswimmer37]

The future crop of prospective NAs/NFOs that may have to worry about this realistically... have yet to be born. The time spent worrying about something over which we have no clue, nor control, can be better spent studying for OCS/API/A/C systems/procedures, etv.; OR chasing ladies, swilling beer, beachcombing et.al., NOT necessarily in that order. Hookers & blow not considered 'career milestones' for aviation aspirants!
BzB

solid point. I'm busting my ass getting ready for OCS and finishing the master's but was a thought I figured I'd get out of my head. It seems as if the AF is shifting its focus keeping more and more pilots on the ground and wasn't sure where the Naval community stood; either way I'm sure pilots will play a pivotal role in the transition. and thanks for addressing the hooker's and blow...

Unmanned systems may have an increasingly important niche role…usually defined within the construct of "Dull, dangerous or dirty". They can do 24-36 hour missions like nobody else. They can also be flown into chem/bio environments where you might think twice about sending carbon-based life-forms. You might have to dump them at sea vice recovering, if their data can be off-loaded, but we're not there yet. As to the dangerous stuff…well, we'll see. Naval Aviation has a long history of doing exactly that, so, again, I'm not sure we're really there yet.

It definitely seems as if they have a niche, but didnt know if the Navy was vesting it's future in the unmanned arena. It'll be an interesting thing to watch unfold regardless. Thanks for the input.

 

[CommodoreMid]

If you go MPRA, stand by to have your dreams crushed for DH/front office tours however.

 

[utswimmer37]

If you go MPRA, stand by to have your dreams crushed for DH/front office tours however.

Do they not get any air time?

 

[CommodoreMid]

As in if you get selected for DH down the road you might get selected to be Triton DH after your flying JO tour, which means no more flying for you ever.

 

[LFCFan]

Purely speculation: but I imagine that Naval Aviation will have one more over the Air Force in recruiting in the coming years as they retire more platforms and replace them with UAVs. We could see officer programs get more competitive as the kids currently watching Top Gun at home are probably more interested in flying plans they can actually sit in. The AF's loss could be the Navy's gain.

 

[utswimmer37]

Good read for Aviators

http://www.public.navy.mil/airfor/nae/Vision Book/Naval_Aviation_Vision.pdf

 

[Uncle Fester]

Here's my $0.02, just based on my robot time:

In the near-term (next 20 years or so), UAS will have niche roles. Primarily ISR, though I could see them taking over a lot of sea-based trash hauling. There's already optionally-piloted helos sling-lifting in theater. A unmanned COD would probably be workable, but for hauling boxes only...there's no way NAVAIR would sign off on unmanned aircraft carrying pax. The visions that get spun of robots dogfighting or striking...the technology's just not there, and won't be without a lot of capital investment that i just don't see materializing. You could drop a few billion teaching a robot to do that - if it's even technologically possible, which I doubt - and it means nothing unless you're also willing to give the VMC weapons realease authority, and that isn't going to happen. There's enough political flack over armed UAS now, which have a whole bunch of humans in the weapons-release loop.

There are many, many, many serious technological hurdles to overcome in order to teach robots to do most military air missions. The time, money and political will to spend them aren't there. As R1 mentioned, there are missions they can do that meatbag-driven planes shouldn't do. A long-ass ISR mission over unfriendly territory, for example. You're better off flinging Tomahawks into heavily opposed environments and sending a UAV to make sure you rolled back the IADS. But if you're worried about no more manned aircraft ever...we're a long, long, very long way from that becoming even a rmote possibility.

 

[robav8r]

As in if you get selected for DH down the road you might get selected to be Triton DH after your flying JO tour, which means no more flying for you ever.

Easy there Francis. There is a LOT of stuff to be worked out wrt to TRITON career progression and management.