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Letter to Sen McCain RE CBRN use in Syria
- Thread starter dtxz
- Start date
Old news. Not the first time this year either.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world...fb93c0-6e02-11e2-b35a-0ee56f0518d2_story.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world...fb93c0-6e02-11e2-b35a-0ee56f0518d2_story.html
Three years later, this thread is an interesting read. Some prophetic stuff about Syria, and the future of Turkey...
Good thread bump, sir. I just re-read it. @Pugs wins the fortune-teller award.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/08/29...ng-in-gulf-and-lots-more/?wp_login_redirect=0
U.S. allies shooting it out in Syria. Adding to Syria’s already chaotic landscape, two U.S. allies who had pledged to fight the Islamic State have turned their guns on each other. And there doesn’t appear to be any end in sight. Late last week, Free Syrian Army rebels, once trained and equipped by U.S. special forces and now backed by Turkey, pushed into Syria to attack U.S.-supported Kurdish and Arab Syrian Democratic Forces.
U.S. allies shooting it out in Syria. Adding to Syria’s already chaotic landscape, two U.S. allies who had pledged to fight the Islamic State have turned their guns on each other. And there doesn’t appear to be any end in sight. Late last week, Free Syrian Army rebels, once trained and equipped by U.S. special forces and now backed by Turkey, pushed into Syria to attack U.S.-supported Kurdish and Arab Syrian Democratic Forces.
Putin is not so much into winning hearts and minds, just winning.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/09/29/putin-is-playing-by-chechen-rules-in-aleppo-syria-russia/
Those Fuel-Air bombs are nasty - the biggest of which are unbelievablely destructive.
Interesting footnote from reading "Lawrence in Arabia" by Scott Anderson was that T.E. wanted to invade at Aleppo which apparently was the dividing line between Ottoman Muslims and Arabic Muslims but was overruled by Churchill. Winston wanted to take Constantinople by invading at Gallipoli, furthermore the French did not want the British landing in their sphere of influence. Really is a fascinating book.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/09/29/putin-is-playing-by-chechen-rules-in-aleppo-syria-russia/
Those Fuel-Air bombs are nasty - the biggest of which are unbelievablely destructive.
Interesting footnote from reading "Lawrence in Arabia" by Scott Anderson was that T.E. wanted to invade at Aleppo which apparently was the dividing line between Ottoman Muslims and Arabic Muslims but was overruled by Churchill. Winston wanted to take Constantinople by invading at Gallipoli, furthermore the French did not want the British landing in their sphere of influence. Really is a fascinating book.
Putin has a distinctively different and regressive view of Westphalian sovereignty that he's trying to force on the international community. One where there's no allowance for intervening in anyone's "internal affairs," regardless of the ugly shit they may be doing or the corruption of the government. Syria is his test case; if he can prop up Assad, he can buddy up with enough unsavory countries to challenge the Western order that's held sway since the fall of the Soviet Union - something he views as the greatest catastrophe in modern history.
While "[mostly American] might makes right" is arguably what also keeps the Western system functional, the Russians and the Chinese are trying to go back to an even more bare-knuckle era of international affairs, where there literally are no rules.
I'm in the middle of this book right now. Though it can be a bit dry at times, it's worth the effort.
Winning at what cost thought? The Russians have poured billions into rebuilding Chechnya, much of it lost to corruption and graft, and have to rely on a brutal thug to 'keep the peace' there and it still has enormous issues that the Russians refuse to address. The Russians and Syrians don't have billions to waste on rebuilding Aleppo if they flatten it and 'win' in the process.
It is sort of like getting away with stealing a new car but wrecking it getting away, and being proud you now own a new car that is worthless. But....winning!
Chechnya and Syria are apples and oranges. Chechnya is part of the northern Caucasus - defensible terrain between the Black and Caspian Seas. You can expect Russia to hold this at all costs.
Syria is a chance for Russia to create turmoil in the Middle East, demonstrating American weakness (red line not being enforced) and flooding Europe with refugees which is causing severe stress in the European Union. Who knows if they will rebuild it.
As for the future of the Turks and Erdogan, perhaps it is time to think of Ataturk as a century long aberration and instead go back to the future - to prepare for the return of The Ottomans.
One wonders whether the outcome would have been significantly different today had the U.S. stood by the CW red line. I suspect not. I think you could have seen military force used in a limited way to go after any CW without significantly altering the balance of power in Syria, thus not really changing the trajectory of the conflict. Punishing the use of CW with military force doesn't necessarily imply a complete IADS rollback, American ground forces, or regime change like in Iraq.
Exactly!..........Then why say it?
It think you are going the Russians too much credit and foresight for what has happened one rate past year or two. While they may have discredited the US in the eyes of some those in power still know who can support and defend them, and it isn't Russia.
One thing that the Arabs generally have is long memories, very skewed and twisted ones in some cases but they are very aware of their history and that includes the Ottoman occupation of their lands. Turkish interference in their affairs is not something they look forward to or welcome in any way so the resurgence of the Ottomans won't go much further than Erdogan's rhetoric and having some of his retinue play dress up.