http://www.public.navy.mil/bupers-n...er/04line/Documents/FY-15/FY15 AO4L STATS.pdf
NAE still promoted the most bodies of all URL communities even at ~50%. Big group of 13XXs BZ too; I wouldn't expect next year to be much better.
-
Please take a moment and update your account profile. If you have an updated account profile with basic information on why you are on Air Warriors it will help other people respond to your posts. How do you update your profile you ask?
Go here:
Edit Account Details and Profile
FY-15 ADHSB
- Thread starter HooverPilot
- Start date
NAE still promoted the most bodies of all URL communities even at ~50%. Big group of 13XXs BZ too; I wouldn't expect next year to be much better.
Good grief; that 49 percent number was including above-zones. 46.45 percent in-zone NFO selection rate? Unreal. I see the precept said to promote 70 percent, as in the past couple of years. That said, I'd hope heavy hitters are going to start talking amongst themselves about what it means that 11XX is promoting at over 90 percent and 13XX at 50. Way to punish people for liking their jobs.
The part that doesn't make sense to me is that with a shortage of bodies for VFA DH there was still such low promotion rates. The numbers as far as I can tell aren't hiding a majority of helo or non-VFA non-selects, I know quite a few VFA O-3s that aren't on the list. Seems like Naval Avaition is biting its own hand as it tries to feed itself.
These promotion rates are just going to exacerbate the problem as I can definitely see guys not taking the bonus because there's such a low possibility of getting selected anyways.
These promotion rates are just going to exacerbate the problem as I can definitely see guys not taking the bonus because there's such a low possibility of getting selected anyways.
What? I know more than a few guys who are taking the bonus in hopes that they FOS because "hey it's free money".
Well, that's a good point that I hadn't considered. Maybe it's PERS' way of suckering more folks in to take the bonus for that very reason and then next year it's an 85% O-4 selection rate. Then, blammo, enough bodies for DH and leftovers for whatever else.
By law, we select for O-4 beside the SWOs, sub guys, SEALs, and all other URL. We select for DH as aviators. I think the left hand and the right hand may not be aware that they're attached to the same body. You can't even screen for DH until you're an O-4 select, so they can't use it to discriminate the golden children at the statutory board.
Good on 'em for rating what you skate . . . that said, that's fucking absurd.
What's so absurd about it? It's the same line that Pers is using to try and sell more people on taking the bonus. Funny enough, that line isn't working for many and they are still refusing the take the money.
Paying people 5-6 figures to stay in for a board with a 50-percent screen rate. Seems to me that this YG's bonus money did not have a very good ROI.
I believe that Big Navy is basically hoping that this whole silly notion of people wanting to leave the USN is just a fad that will blow over soon. It will take a few years of <50% O-4 select rates, and the VFA community having more DH billets than bodies, before someone actually does something about aviation retention.
I just heard that PERS is offering 2nd sea tour (Super JO/DH lite) orders to VFA FRS IPs. If you know anything about VFA detailing, you know that this is a fairly significant development. PERS is offering 2 year orders to an operational VFA squadron, not just a 6 month TDY to a deployed squadron in order to cover a temporary billet gap. I'm sure the reason these orders are being offered is because there is a shortage of DHs in certain squadrons. Interesting times....
I just heard that PERS is offering 2nd sea tour (Super JO/DH lite) orders to VFA FRS IPs. If you know anything about VFA detailing, you know that this is a fairly significant development. PERS is offering 2 year orders to an operational VFA squadron, not just a 6 month TDY to a deployed squadron in order to cover a temporary billet gap. I'm sure the reason these orders are being offered is because there is a shortage of DHs in certain squadrons. Interesting times....
I was inclined to agree with you, but then I ran the numbers...even with the low recent selection rates, the numerical quantity of selects actually increased this year for 1310. With NFO billets going away (read transition to Growlers), the reduction in NFO's makes sense. Below is a chart with the total number of selects and percentage derived from total selects over eligible IZ per year:
Year 1310 1320 1310 % 1320 %
2015 321 76 56.2% 49.0%
2014 295 115 65.6% 69.3%
2013 342 116 66.9% 60.4%
2012 280 62 83.4% 81.6%
2011 378 134 79.9% 82.7%
2010 359 169 83.9% 91.4%
I know someone who wrote a "don't pick me" LTB. Essentially, she wants to FOSx2. I suppose declining a promotion would be another route, but the timing of when you'd be out because of it would be different, of course.
Is this the first YG with the 8 year commitment for all 1310's? If so, (and I think so), I am inclined to believe that the 8 year commitment means everyone goes to the O-4 board. Higher numbers to the board, with the same (or similar) # of selects needed means lower selection %.
I can't explain the 1320's low rate with just a reduced need for NFO's, but I don't have another explanation.
Edit to add: the convening order directs a requirement for URL for skill sets than aviation JO's don't normally acquire until later in their career. These skills are also built into the SWO career path as a junior/mid level O-3. This board could have made this a bigger discriminator than previous boards.
I can't explain the 1320's low rate with just a reduced need for NFO's, but I don't have another explanation.
Edit to add: the convening order directs a requirement for URL for skill sets than aviation JO's don't normally acquire until later in their career. These skills are also built into the SWO career path as a junior/mid level O-3. This board could have made this a bigger discriminator than previous boards.
Last edited:
Nope. I was an 8-year commitment and was in zone two years ago. I do note that the aviation bloodbath at the O-4 board correlates nicely with SECNAV's direction to target 70 percent versus 80 percent. Note that the 11XX crowd has consistently been selecting at 80 percent plus. So naturally, to depress the overall average, the 13XX community is getting hosed. Why? Dunno.
It's like when my TRAWING commodore (allegedly) decreed that a student's "average" performance should be "average" on the gradesheet. NSSes took a freaking nosedive because previously it had been about 0.5 above. And there's only one way to adjust the statistics.
Some 1310 communities (TACAIR) have had 8-year MSRs from winging for a while, but Rotary and MPRA was a relatively recent change. I remember when I applied for STA-21 in '03, it was a 6-year commitment, but when I finally selected aviation in Dec. '05, it was 8 years for all 1310s. Clearly, that would mean more LTs around for the O-4 board, whether or not they want to be. I'm stretching here, but it could also explain the O-4/DH pain in VFA, since they used to have a disproportionate number of LTs eligible for O-4, and now all of us helo and big-wing guys are jamming up the works (As I understand it, the O-4 board doesn't care what platform you fly, only that you're 1310).
Too many people rant about the selection rate (%), but that is barely one piece of the puzzle. Also, the selection rate shown on the far right of the board stats document is total selects divided by only the IZ eligible, so it can be above 100% (and is for some designators). I'm not sure why PERS thinks that number is meaningful, but you've got to check what is actually being shown. Ben4prez showed above that the total number selected hasn't really changed much.
Here's a graph of Ben4prez's numbers:
Yes, selection rate has taken a dive, but look at the rise in eligible IZ candidates and notice that the number of selectees has oscillated. The overall trend is down, but only by ~11% (321 from 359).
Damn you, bringing your statistics and logic into our emotional arguments! This is teh INTERNETS!
Seriously, though, that's interesting. Hadn't looked at it from that angle. I probably got told this once upon a time, but I'm drawing a blank. What target is Big Navy attempting to hit by adjusting the O-4 screen rate again? Was the 80 to 70 percent drawdown an attempt to preserve the same numbers in the face of a glut of people?
Seriously, though, that's interesting. Hadn't looked at it from that angle. I probably got told this once upon a time, but I'm drawing a blank. What target is Big Navy attempting to hit by adjusting the O-4 screen rate again? Was the 80 to 70 percent drawdown an attempt to preserve the same numbers in the face of a glut of people?