MasterBates
Well-Known Member
No, talking about the barely over 60% selection rate. With that, there are a lot of guys on the path who still get forced out
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NFO vs. Pilot vs. SWO for longterm career
- Thread starter nickerus
- Start date
No, talking about the barely over 60% selection rate. With that, there are a lot of guys on the path who still get forced out
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How many "on path / due course" players have been victims of these shenanigans? I suspect what we're seeing is the Navy allowing fewer and fewer one-off / individual career plans. There are a few different ways to get where the Bureau wants you (don't forget what their charter is...) and it's less and less likely that folks are going to be able to stray away from those routes and expect to stick around.
Do you have numbers on guys (other than yourself) who FOSx2 for O4 and were asked to get out? I'd be curious how many that is.
@LSO and Brett, both are fair questions, but
I think we are talking about two subtly different things:
When the results of next year's board come out in 9-10 months, then we'll certainly have a lot more data (for better or for worse) whether FY13 was an anomaly or a change.
This subject concerns me- what am I supposed to tell senior LTs in my squadron? "They always say you should have a backup plan. Well, just a heads-up, odds are that is more than just a cliché these days, not like when I was in your shoes a few years ago. But you already knew that. Can't tell you what'll happen next because I don't know either. Um, hey... keep up the good work!"
I think we are talking about two subtly different things:
- unusual career paths
- this year's dip in aviation LCDR promotions (thread and others in the private forums) that affected a lot of people on normal career paths (ie. first shore tour on any flying orders that were strong odds for selection in previous boards, not just the FRS/community mothership "A-track" orders).
When the results of next year's board come out in 9-10 months, then we'll certainly have a lot more data (for better or for worse) whether FY13 was an anomaly or a change.
This subject concerns me- what am I supposed to tell senior LTs in my squadron? "They always say you should have a backup plan. Well, just a heads-up, odds are that is more than just a cliché these days, not like when I was in your shoes a few years ago. But you already knew that. Can't tell you what'll happen next because I don't know either. Um, hey... keep up the good work!"
"This round's on me."
In my last squadron we had 5/5 IZ O-3s FOS. 4/5 were due course players with EPs in their first sea tour. I'd be interested to see the community brief for that board.
Spekkio
He bowls overhand.
There is a difference between a tight promotion rate and an Officer being "asked" to leave while he's still under contract or eligible to continue serving.
There is no difference if you are that officer.
I'm sure Admiral Greenert just woke up one morning, called VADM Van Buskirk and said, "fuck it, let's just promote a whole lot less people this year.."
"And while we're at it, lets make lots of cuts to the size of every staff in the Navy, lets cut flight time by 13% and cut every budget in the Navy by 15% in FY 13."
Or maybe it could have been the Congressionally directed downsize that all the Services had to make over the last few years.
Or maybe I could just tilt another windmill and be convinced that the entire Navy leadership is simply out to screw over every JO and doesn't give a shit about anyone or anything.
MasterBates
Well-Known Member
You said that you never knew of the navy forcing people out for force shaping.
Your last post reads as if they are doing just that.
The Navy didn't just wake up one morning looking to fuck people. They had to do what was directed.
But saying the Navy has never forced guys out to force shape, to me reads as inaccurate. I know and accept why I was gone when the promotion rates dropped like GM's stock price. But they did exactly use the only method they have to force officers who are meeting all required wickets from a legal standpoint.
Whatever. I'm in Vegas. I'm going drinking.
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Your last post reads as if they are doing just that.
The Navy didn't just wake up one morning looking to fuck people. They had to do what was directed.
But saying the Navy has never forced guys out to force shape, to me reads as inaccurate. I know and accept why I was gone when the promotion rates dropped like GM's stock price. But they did exactly use the only method they have to force officers who are meeting all required wickets from a legal standpoint.
Whatever. I'm in Vegas. I'm going drinking.
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The PERS video from Tailhook had some interesting things, among them that the low aviation selection rate was a surprise to everyone, and may have been because the board was acting less like a statutory one and more like an admin board. They also talked about revised tactics to discourage that.
I do wonder if it has to do with the glut of control grade 1310s and 1320s. If that's what the board is aiming for, I don't think dramatically less opportunity for O-4 will do it, but eh. I don't know dick.
I do wonder if it has to do with the glut of control grade 1310s and 1320s. If that's what the board is aiming for, I don't think dramatically less opportunity for O-4 will do it, but eh. I don't know dick.