Europe under extreme duress

[Random8145]

Do you have any formal training in IR?

Nope. I don't have formal training in economics or law either, doesn't mean I can't comment on economic policy and legal issues though. I also don't have medical training, doesn't mean I can't point out issues with the health experts in terms of what they were calling for in the handling of Covid.

This is an old canard that I've noticed is prevalent on this forum that really needs to be put to the grave. The idea that only those with "formal training in International Relations" are in any way qualified to comment or have an opinion on the subject, that such a person should "know their place" and leave the commentary to "the experts." As I mentioned regarding economy/law/medical/etc...that would mean nobody could comment, debate, or have an opinion on anything. Some of you seem to get bent out of shape that I do not agree with your opinions on the subject and debate you on them, and resort to the, "You have no idea what you're talking about and have said many wrong things, so shut up, amateur..." but this is a forum, and if I see people making statements I disagree with, I will debate.

 

[sevenhelmet]

@Random8145 , FWIW I think you're often long on wordy posts and have a tendency to get defensive a little more than most. Nobody told you you couldn't have an opinion, but you are being challenged by those that disagree with you. Several of your statements about Russia have been demonstrably false. You can be as defensive as you like about it, but the discussion is moving on either way.

 

[Random8145]

@Random8145 , FWIW I think you're often long on wordy posts and have a tendency to get defensive a little more than most. Nobody told you you couldn't have an opinion, but you are being challenged by those that disagree with you. Several of your statements about Russia have been demonstrably false. You can be as defensive as you like about it, but the discussion is moving on either way.

Yes the long wordy posts are a problem of mine, will try to stop that habit as no one wants to read all that. But what statements of mine about Russia have been "demonstrably false" ?

 

[Brett327]

Nope.

It shows. There’s a lot of basic IR theory you seem to be unaware of.

 

[sevenhelmet]

A lot of fear mongering around nukes lately. But I have to wonder… who is Putin going to nuke? “His” own recently “annexed” territory? Or the country he just invaded, which also happens to be upwind of Moscow?

All this thread babble about rational actions has me wondering- after a few drinks on a Friday night- what’s rational about that?

Part of me thinks this is typical Russian fear-mongering. Part of me thinks with this sham of an “annexation” we may be closer to nuclear war than we’ve been in a long time.

Either way, fuck you, Putin.

 

[Random8145]

A lot of fear mongering around nukes lately. But I have to wonder… who is Putin going to nuke? “His” own recently “annexed” territory? Or the country he just invaded, which also happens to be upwind of Moscow?

All this thread babble about rational actions has me wondering- after a few drinks on a Friday night- what’s rational about that?

Part of me thinks this is typical Russian fear-mongering. Part of me thinks with this sham of an “annexation” we may be closer to nuclear war than we’ve been in a long time.

Either way, fuck you, Putin.

The other problem is does he even have the capabilities to make use of a tactical nuclear weapon? Like I don't mean the launching of it, but to be able to maneuver his forces around to even take advantage of it. Personally, I don't think the "annexation" would bring us any closer to nuclear war. Putin isn't stupid. He can "claim" that these newly "annexed" territories are now "Russian territory" and as such, NATO weapons going into them constitutes an attack by NATO on sovereign Russia, but IMO he knows that's a crock.

 

[Random8145]

It shows. There’s a lot of basic IR theory you seem to be unaware of.

I am skeptical IR can really even be reduced much to "theory." Yes there are theories and philosophies of thought that are important, and I understand one must know the underlying political and economic system, culture, history, etc...of a nation to have an idea of how it behaves and why, but a lot of the "theory" in fields like this I rate like a lot of economic theory and political science theory (which seems to be an outright pseudoscience if there ever was one), i.e. overthinking of what are more simplistic subjects by people who don't want them to be simple because they want to think of themselves as experts. And not saying they are simple fields, but the experts IMO way overcomplicate them.

 

[Brett327]

I am skeptical IR can really even be reduced much to "theory." And not saying they are simple fields, but the experts IMO way overcomplicate them.

I'm sure you are, as you really don't even know what you don't know. This is all a fascinating exploration of Dunning-Kruger. At this point, you're a spectator in an operating theater heckling the surgeons on their technique. Don't be too surprised when they ignore your advice.

 

[Random8145]

I'm sure you are, as you really don't even know what you don't know. This is all a fascinating exploration of Dunning-Kruger. At this point, you're a spectator in an operating theater heckling the surgeons on their technique. Don't be too surprised when they ignore your advice.

Had a feeling you'd say that. The irony is that I feel some of the people in here have been a good example of that. The problem with your analogy is that the medical/surgical theories don't have a history of being proven wrong, or of experts in said surgical field having differing opinions simply based on their personal political views. You see this a lot with economics/political science/foreign policy. With political science especially, for example I remember reading how right after Trump was elected, a bunch of political scientists declared him the worst president of all time. Now anyone with any common sense knows you can't judge a president a week after being elected, or even a week after leaving office. That takes years.

If I was saying to surgeons their technique is wrong, or saying the Navy's fighter plane tactics are all wrong and some Top Gun grads were trying to explain to me why I am wrong and I was saying they are wrong, then absolutely I would agree with your point.

It's a little old, but an interesting read: LINK

 

[Random8145]

Some good news: Ukraine liberates Lyman

 

[jmcquate]

This Thread..........

 

[Griz882]

This Thread..........

Where’s @Max the Mad Russian when you need him?

 

[Brett327]

Had a feeling you'd say that.

Back at ya, slick. I’m not sure whom you’re trying to convince here. You’re just wasting keystrokes at this point.

 

[Random8145]

Back at ya, slick. I’m not sure whom you’re trying to convince here. You’re just wasting keystrokes at this point.

Wasn't trying to be rude. Point is, expertise in something like IR, and especially IR theory, is in no way comparable to say being a surgeon, and as such lack of expertise in it doesn't necessarily inhibit thinking about foreign policy.

 

[Brett327]

(Insert Picard facepalm GIF)