It’s not lost on me that both Afghanistan and Iraq are/were “artificial countries” whose border boundaries were penciled by adventurous British colonial powers. Neither was really ever a cohesive country with a singular identity based on language, religion, social/tribal, or natural terrain homogeneity.
Afghanistan, 2001-2021. US/NATO chose to keep the country geography altogether, despite multiple competing languages, ethnicies, and divisive terrain features. Result: complete nationwide takeover by an unwanted faction, the Taliban.
Former Yugoslavia, 1992-1995, 1998-1999. US/NATO chose to divide the former country’s geography into new mini nations based on ethnicities, languages, religions, and terrain features. The Bosnian War and Kosovo War are included. Result: four countries that arose from these conflicts are now full NATO members, and pretty much everyone (except the Serbs) still supports America.
Iraq, 2003-tbd. US/Coalition chose to keep the country geography altogether, despite three clear ethno-religious groups centered generally around Basra (Shia), Baghdad (Sunni), and Kurdistan. Our current Commander in Chief (along with Sen McCain) actually considered at one point in early 2003 splitting Iraq into three mini nations. Due to Turkish vehement opposition to an independent Kurdistan, and probably a bunch of other valid reasons, we didn’t. Result: tbd, but Iran-backed militia groups are deeply embedded in Iraq
I wonder if - right after we dusted Bin Laden in 2011 - if we had retrograded and given away Helmand, Kandahar, and the Pashtun areas to the Taliban as part of a peace deal, and focused on keeping Kabul separate and safe, maybe perhaps Kabul and the northern provinces (more Tajik than Pashtun) would have been able to hold their own long term. But we will never know and it’s not worth rehashing unless we can learn a real lesson from it.