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Venezuela

Griz882 said:
Looks like some crockery was broken. The real question is, “What’s next?”

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Cuba’s refineries are setup to run on heavy oil from Venezuela so I expect there to be an energy crisis in Cuba.

Also, if Chevron (the only US oil company currently operating in Venezuela) expands production, the US government will have options for heavy crude for Gulf Coast refineries other than Albertan tar sands. This could impact US-Canada relations as Alberta doesn’t have a trans-Canada pipeline either west or east to get their crude to market.

Edit: Ian Bremmer’s analysis was recently published:

 
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ChuckMK23 said:
The only video of direct action seems to be Army helos of 160th. CNN reporting TLAM strikes on Venezuela air defenses.

Maduro just shown aboard Iwo wearing LPU with chem lights. In cuffs with Federal LEO.
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Did see an image of what looks like a light SAM vehicle (maybe SA-8) blown apart, so maybe some SEAD work?
 
Chairman specifically mention "helicopter" as far as exfil of Maduro. So not V-22. And that does not look like a Navy / Marine LPU setup. So likely it was a TF160 Helo that delivered Maduro aboard Iwo in my opinion.
 
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Griz882 said:
Looks like some crockery was broken. The real question is, “What’s next?”

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This is a good question.

The days of cartels being run by strict hierarchies with strong leaders are long-gone, precipitated by what happened in Colombia with the fall of Pablo Escobar. The cartels today are more akin to the Taliban in Afghanistan, insofar as they are embedded and entrenched into official municipal and national government functions of several central and South American nations with a nebulous, networked leadership structure.

Putting pressure on one country like Venezuela will just cause them to take up sanctuary somewhere else in South America until we get tired.
 
Did we just create the conditions for civil war in Venezuela?

No mention of María Corina Machado.

There should be legions of FSO types headed down there to do the real work. Oh wait, DOGE fired them all.
 
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ChuckMK23 said:
Did we just create the conditions for civil war in Venezuela?

No mention of María Corina Machado.

There should be legions of FSO types headed down there to do the real work. Oh wait, we fired them all.
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She has already been on the airwaves and Trump noted he backed her plan. She may be propped up by the U.S. for some time.
 
sevenhelmet said:
Yayyy, another power vacuum for repressive warlords to fill…
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Venezuela isn’t warlord territory, the tribalism necessary for that doesn’t exist there. The real threat is from Maduroistas looking to keep, the old ways with a new face. Now we’ll see if the population really embraces the communist stylings of Castro.
 
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