Rumor Control!

[smoke_screen]

Hello All,

I am here in advanced and (anyone else here with me can vouch for this) rumors are flying around here that are out of control.

I am going to post what I have heard, and if possible I would appreciate people who actually know what's going on (like people in the Fleet for example) posting replies as fact...

BUT, I would also really appreciate it if people could post any rumors they have heard that I am failing to mention.

1) We are going to be allowed into the reserve squadrons after winging... ... I actually verified this one with the XO of Vt-31 but didn't get into any details. He said "Yes!" -that is what he had been hearing. Maybe not "allowed" into but forced-into is more like it.

2) The Navy has to get rid of pilots.. specifically 25% of P3 pilots one way or another... Supposedly the P-3 community is 25% overmanned and it will be either not promoting or actually paying people to leave in order to get back down to size. I think every day I hear another story about how BLOATED the Fleet is right now with pilots in general and that it puts us at risk of the heave-ho.

3) There are less than 120 (and decreasing) P-3's left in service and they are limited to 20-30 hours a month when not on depolyment... meaning if we get to our squadrons and they aren't about to go on deployment, it will take forever to get through out quals. Also, the 6-month on, 18-month "off" deployment cycle will really limit in terms of profeciency.

4) I am hearing this a lot.. from an instructor at Whiting originially... The p-3 mission is going away. We are in a dead-end community. The current planes will time out within the next 2-3 years and we will fulfill the p-3 mission alternatively until the Boeing comes along, at which time the Navy will decide MMA is too expensive for a mission which the Air Force and helo squardons can now do. Even if we stretch the current planes until 2010, the Navy will realize they just can't afford the MMA. The thought being that the current p-3 mission is not a Navy mission and that the Air Force can do surveilance, so how can they justify THAT much money. Also, a big one is that the MMA projected cost is actualy about half of what it will actually cost given equipment that "we really need" on it what wasn't in the original numbers. Not too specific, I know.

5) They are thinking about not giving wings to the bottom 25% or so of advenced completers to ease things up at the FRS.

That's about all for now... thanks! I know rumors are always flying around, but it seems like a particular epidemic right now!

Please post anything else anyone has heard around here...

 

[webmaster]

Hmmm, got some thoughts regarding alot of that, but I am pushing 18 hours, offgoing watch... will post more when I am lucid....

Just a quick one to #4... Full of ****... I am still operational on my second tour, and the ASW mission is alive and well.

 

[zab1001]

yeah im knee deep in a grammar test right now, on break prior to my speaking test, but #4 is BULSH!T.

 

[Jaxs170]

Well, since I have some insight as to what the AF is thinking long term I'll say this, take it for what you will:

The E-10 is looking to be a replacement for many platforms, specifically the E-3, E-8, and RC-135. Apparently, some people are saying that it may not stop there, and that the E-10 can take on more missions (heck, 767-400 airframe is gonna have a lot of space to fill on the inside).

So take that for what you will wrt to the P-3/MMA. This cauught my attention b/c the E-6 is starting to get old and since we took a mission from the AF (battlestaff) I am only guessing they will be looking to take it right back from us as soon as they can, and I just can't see the gov't getting the navy a 767 to only do what the E-6 A model used to do (wire only) . The timeline I have heard for the E-10 is for it to come online around 2008-2010.

A good friend of mine is in the AWACS pipeline and since they are heading up this new plane, I'll see if he can dig up any more gouge on the AF plans for it. My personal belief is that the AF would be ill equiped to handle the maritime mission themselves, but this could open up the possibility of a joint platform/mission to do it since that seems to be where the military as a whole is heading.

 

[Fly Navy]

This cauught my attention b/c the E-6 is starting to get old and since we took a mission from the AF (battlestaff)

The first E-6A rolled out in 1986. The E-6B came online in 1998. That's new by Navy standards!

 

[Jaxs170]

The first E-6A rolled out in 1986. The E-6B came online in 1998. That's new by Navy standards!

No argument Fly Navy, but trust me, the airframes are 13-18 years old, and they have a lot of wear and tear on them already. The brass says they will be around till 2020 at least, my response, yeah right. Flying is being restricted on them already from a training aspect to save the airframe, but even with this in place, some guys who have been in the community far longer than me say we could start one way flights to the desert as early as 2010.

Impact all of this has on the P-3/MMA question: None.

 

[zab1001]

DISCLAIMER: i have been out of my first fleet squadron for almost 6 months and am not "in the loop", plus I have deep fried my brain this morning with preterite verb tenses, but...


"I am here in advanced and (anyone else here with me can vouch for this) rumors are flying around here that are out of control."

Standard, nice to know some things never change.

"1) We are going to be allowed into the reserve squadrons after winging... ... I actually verified this one with the XO of Vt-31 but didn't get into any details. He said "Yes!" -that is what he had been hearing. Maybe not "allowed" into but forced-into is more like it."

Well, that isn't a whole lot of verification. Seriously, just relax and wait for more news. When I was in advanced there was rumor that the helo pipeline was backed up and the p-3 pipeline was lacking for bodies, so we were supposedly going to get 10-15 guys from HTs. In the end maybe 1 or 2 got to change to the maritime syllabus. Things like this always get blown out of proportion. Remember the "A-Pool"? Same sydrome.
If it does happen, I really don't think this is going to affect a whole lot of people. It doesn't really help the new 3P after the FRS, he'll be going to a squadron where there are a handful of active duty guys there to train him up as a qualified PPC, and those guys typically have a lot to do already since they run the squadron while the reservists are in "the real world". I'm sure there are guys thinking "sweet, reserves! no deployments!" This would suuuuuckkkk. You would definitely be the b!tch in the squadron, standing a LOT of duty and CDOs I imagine. Unfortunately you would also have the "I did my first tour in a reserve squadron that didn't go on deployments" 'stank' on you for your career. Some people would look down on this, thats just the way it is.

"2) The Navy has to get rid of pilots.. specifically 25% of P3 pilots one way or another... Supposedly the P-3 community is 25% overmanned and it will be either not promoting or actually paying people to leave in order to get back down to size. I think every day I hear another story about how BLOATED the Fleet is right now with pilots in general and that it puts us at risk of the heave-ho."

Well, yeah, so basically, don't perform or f-ck up and get the boot. Pretty simple. They want to have one pilot for every available Combat Aircrew pilot position. These numbers change and vary depending on who you ask, do you include O-4s, what about your Skipper/XO, etc. Bottom line, don't be a dirtbag, don't get any DUIs, keep your nose clean, you'll be fine. However, expect competition for advancement to increase.

3) There are less than 120 (and decreasing) P-3's left in service and they are limited to 20-30 hours a month when not on depolyment... meaning if we get to our squadrons and they aren't about to go on deployment, it will take forever to get through out quals. Also, the 6-month on, 18-month "off" deployment cycle will really limit in terms of profeciency.

Sims sims sims. The majority of training will move to the sims. High work, tactical events, etc. Bonus is, fleetwide, the sims are being upgraded big time, full visual, AIP tube gear, etc. Low work will still be done in the aircraft. It takes forever to get through your qualification upgrades anyway. Proficiency...well, as far as stick skills go, just don't be the guy that turns down bounce hops (touch and go trainers). The tube rats will be fine with the new sims. You will learn that Maritime presses foward no matter what. No up aircraft? Fine, we'll schedule late night sims. Sims are down, but we have one plane up? Fine, load as many upgraders as you can onboard and get as many X's done as you can. It's just the mentality.

"4) I am hearing this a lot.. from an instructor at Whiting originially... The p-3 mission is going away. We are in a dead-end community."

Well, the airframe is going away, the subs aren't....

"The current planes will time out within the next 2-3 years"

Doubt it. They'll just amp up the airframe inspections and if necessary, restrict some evolutions.

"and we will fulfill the p-3 mission alternatively until the Boeing comes along"

How? What alternatives? Helos are AWESOME at ASW, I will agree, but they don't have the legs/buoy capacity for the long range hops Maritime does. I can't see the Fleet giving up this capability.

"at which time the Navy will decide MMA is too expensive for a mission which the Air Force and helo squardons can now do."

I assume you mean helos doing ASW and AF doing surveillance. Like I said, helos are a PORTION of the solution, along with surface, subsurface, and maritime assets. If helos could do it all, they'd be doing it right now.

"Even if we stretch the current planes until 2010, the Navy will realize they just can't afford the MMA. The thought being that the current p-3 mission is not a Navy mission and that the Air Force can do surveilance, so how can they justify THAT much money."

I agree, things that aren't feet wet are really not USN missions. But until the AF can cover it all, the need will be there and the missions will continue.

"Also, a big one is that the MMA projected cost is actualy about half of what it will actually cost given equipment that "we really need" on it what wasn't in the original numbers. Not too specific, I know."

Yeah, I don't know/don't really care about the numbers. Bottom line is, you could slap the current systems on a 737 and still have a superior platform.

"5) They are thinking about not giving wings to the bottom 25% or so of advenced completers to ease things up at the FRS."

well that's always been in the shadows. I knew a few guys who 'passed' flight school but didn't have enough aboves to get winged. sh!tty deal, but it's used to thin the ranks, so do well.

"That's about all for now... thanks! I know rumors are always flying around, but it seems like a particular epidemic right now!"

Sorry I'm not a better source (or 'fuente' en espanol...), like I said, my info is a few months old and things in the fleet change daily. Count on the P-3 inventory to get smaller, the missions to focus more on core maritime operations (asw/asuw/protection of the sea lanes...), but not to completely lose the intel/surv/recon role (just scale back to essential stuff). Less planes equals less positions, leading to more competition for those seats.

...i'm tired now

 

[smoke_screen]

Zab,

Thanks a ton! Unfortunately I think the reason these rumors have legs like they do is because I have noticed that most people here right now didn't want P-3's... actually no one I have talked to other than me had it as their first choice. It's almost like they are LOOKING for reasons that they didn't have it as their first choice and WANT to find out exactly why they got "screwed" into P-3's. They didn't want it and are trying to reason why it was as traumatic to them as it was, so they constantly talk about the things in my previous post.

Whenever I could get a minute free, I have talked to a few of the LT's in TW-4, most of whom are either right about to go be shooters and stay in the navy or are just getting some hours and will be getting out. It is strange the uniformity in their bleak outlook of the community. To be honest, the only place I can come for some positives is right on this forum. I guess the big gripe is the lack of flying time, but there is just kind of a cloud over everyone's general opinion of p-3's future here. I know I have a lot of other things to worry about right now, but it is a slight downer to be hearing that we are in the pipeline that no one wants to be in right now.

What WILL happen if the MMA (as it certainly will) comes in way over budget? This time gap from 2008-9 (planes crap out completely) to 2015 is intriguing... yes we will be flying in the sims, but who will be watching the subs?

The RUMOR that we talk about over lunch is that the Navy will look to things like UAV's to take the edge off hte aging p-3's, or asking the LA-class to take on a bigger surveilance role. These are the "alternative means" that I mentioned.

It does seem that if in 2012 the Air Force can do surveilance (which might ramp down slightly as things hopefully settle down in Iraq) and p-3's actual flying has tapered off by then so much anyway... it will be hard to justify spending as much as they will be asking at that point. Who knows... NOT ME!!!

Bottom line, is it as bleak out there are people are talking about here?

Thanks!

Oh yeah and I actually heard again today that the reserve squadrons will be open for us to choose out of the FRS. Just interesting...

 

[zab1001]

I hear ya man. We are all very very very small cogs in a large machine. Most of the questions you are asking are relevant, but WAY beyond the level of those of us on this website. Pontificating (ooo big word) on these things will only give you a headache. My advice is ignore the rumors, give the program your all, if you smoke it, nice. If not, you can still say you did everything you could.

I love hearing about guys *****ing about how they got scewed because they wanted something else. I have three letters for em: D O R. There are plenty of guys around who will take that slot off your hands and you can pursue something new/better in the outside world.

One piece of advice, do EVERYTHING you can to go to the Active Fleet. Deployment alone is worth it (even if it turns out to be just one with the 18/6 cycle, you'll have stories you'll be telling forever).

Keep your head up. I think this is the 4th time I've said it on here, the experience you have in the Navy is what you make it. If you b!tch and moan, your time will suck. The worst day in the worst squadron is still better than the best day working at a desk in a tie making paper-clip chains.

 

[zab1001]

WEBMASTER....we need new blood in this thread! You MUST have some comments!

i am bored

 

[virtu050]

geesh, all this negative talk... what are the implications (if even possible) of transferring to the jet/helo/whatever pipeline after one tour in P-3's? Maybe the people who feel they got robbed of their first choice platform can work towards transfer?

 

[Flash]

The RUMOR that we talk about over lunch is that the Navy will look to things like UAV's to take the edge off hte aging p-3's, or asking the LA-class to take on a bigger surveilance role. These are the "alternative means" that I mentioned.

The sub guys are stretched pretty thin right now and are gradually losing numbers, they can't do much mroe than what they are already doing. As for UAV's taking over some of the role of the P-3's, that has been part of the plan for MMA for years. It has been called BAMS (Broad Area Maritime Surveilance). Two of the competitors are a version of the Predator and the Global Hawk. Those JO IP's that you have been talking to need to pay a little more attention to what is going on with the future of their community.

1) We are going to be allowed into the reserve squadrons after winging... ... I actually verified this one with the XO of Vt-31 but didn't get into any details. He said "Yes!" -that is what he had been hearing. Maybe not "allowed" into but forced-into is more like it

Hmmmm....doubt this one highly. The reserve P-3 squadrons are slated to go away by 2007 if I remember correctly to be replaced by reserve sugmentation units at the wings I believe. The only possibilty that I could see some guys doing is being sent to VR's, but I doubt that too. Anyways, it would really suck to be a JG there. A lot of the part time reservists are scrambling for time in the VR's because they were furloughed from the airlines and guess who would lose out on flight time in the end. Stanger things have happened though.....And while your XO is decently high ranking and would know more than you do, there are people much higher ranking than him who make the decisions, wait fo rthe official word.....in writing.

3) There are less than 120 (and decreasing) P-3's left in service and they are limited to 20-30 hours a month when not on depolyment... meaning if we get to our squadrons and they aren't about to go on deployment, it will take forever to get through out quals. Also, the 6-month on, 18-month "off" deployment cycle will really limit in terms of profeciency.

I understood it to be 150 would be the final end strength. They are buying around 100 737's so it will get tighter. Zab is right, sims. Welcome to the 21st century and the budget realities of today. We cannot sustain the numbers and forces we have right now even with the budget increases, the toys cost a lot more than they did a generation ago when we bought most of our current weapon systems.

It does seem that if in 2012 the Air Force can do surveilance (which might ramp down slightly as things hopefully settle down in Iraq)

Overland they can, I have always been of the opinion that the P-3's were just filling in the gaps doing overland surveilance. Ultimately I think big VP needs to concentrate on their unique capabilities, Maritime Patrol. Being just another overland recce platform is not the best thing when it comes to budget crunch time.

I love hearing about guys *****ing about how they got scewed because they wanted something else. I have three letters for em: D O R. There are plenty of guys around who will take that slot off your hands and you can pursue something new/better in the outside world.

Yeah, I love those guys too. Boo hoo. You fly for a living in the Navy, I don't care if it is flying dog crap off the boat, it is 100 times better than 99% of the other jobs you can have! I am flying a desk right now and I miss the hell out of flying, I would even do it in the back of the Sky Pig again in a heartbeat. Go whine about it over coffee at some mindless office job and quit b#$%ting to me.

No argument Fly Navy, but trust me, the airframes are 13-18 years old, and they have a lot of wear and tear on them already. The brass says they will be around till 2020 at least, my response, yeah right. Flying is being restricted on them already from a training aspect to save the airframe, but even with this in place, some guys who have been in the community far longer than me say we could start one way flights to the desert as early as 2010.

I talked to an O-4 E-6 pilot about this at an airshow and the story is a typical Navy one. The airframe life is fine but it is the landing gear life that is causing problems. The Navy buys 16 mission airplanes and no training birds so they bounce the hell out of the mission birds, wasting a large percentage of the gear life really quickly (40 or 60% already, I forget the exact number he gave me). Why they don't buy some surplus KC-135's off the AF and use them I have no idea. They could have solved this problem in the first place by buying exxtra mission birds like the AF. This is solely the Navy's fault.

 

[webmaster]

Zab, yeah, I have comments as always, but this watch cycle for the exercise I am in is killing me, so no time to post till this weekend... ditto Flashes comments, flying a desk is no where near as fun (cough).... smoke, I will post when I get a chance, but I wouldn't sweat the rumors.

 

[Jaxs170]

Well I picked up a little more insight today for the E-6 part of this so here you go. The birds are really beat up, I mean way more beat up than they should be for their age for the reasons stated above. Its not just the gear (though apparetly that is problem #1), it's everything on the plane is breaking.

Add to that that the 737 bounce birds the FRS has are probably going to be lost come early next year, with no replacement in sight. Apparently the DOD will not let anyone lease anything anymore, so once the leases on the 2 73s are up, a new lessor must provide a pilot to fly with the new birds we get in what is called a Pay for Service deal which is OK per DOD. Doing this will drive up the cost of the contract so its not expected to happen, and oh yeah, this pilot will only sit in the back, VQ-7 IPs will be upfront (gotta love this logic, eh).

Furthermore, this O-4 expects the AF to make a run on our mission as well once they get new planes (E-10) in the next couple of years, so the outlook for TACAMO is pretty cloudy right now. His guess, by 2015 the E-6s will probably not be sustainable, and this poses a very large risk to spell the end of the community.

*This is only speculation and one man's opinion grounded in some facts, but he admits some of this is beyond his paygrade.

 

[rare21]

i heard the same things you and Patmack heard. i hadnt even started when i mentioned how i'd like to go P-3s and was told not to since the "mission was going away and could be handled by UAV's". Straight from an instructor's mouth (P3 guy). Also hearing a P-3 guy tell me that he's actually getting a civilian rating in a helicopter (thats how much he wished he'd gone helos) didnt sit well either.