Return of the Supersonic Airliner?

[Randy Daytona]

Looks like NASA and other engineers are getting closer to reducing sonic booms to an acceptable level.

Supersonic passenger jets might make a comeback, more than a decade after the last Concorde flight

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-supersonic-jets-20170202-story.html


If it doesn't work out, they can always dust off these plans.

Turning the B-58 Nuclear Bomber Into a Supersonic Airliner
http://www.agoodvideo.com/22654.html

 

[Hopeful Hoya]

I still don't understand how this would be economical even if you're a BSD CEO of some Fortune 500 company. Even if it saved you a few hours on a trans-Atlantic hop, is that extra time really worth double or triple the cost of normal business class travel especially when you can still be connected/productive with the near ubiquity of in-flight wifi?

Although I guess there are probably enough billionaires with "screw you" levels of money who can justify the cost to make a day trip to Paris for shopping or a last-minute trip to their house in Lake Como for the weekend.

 

[Brett327]

It was stupid in the 70s, and it's still stupid today.

 

[Uncle Fester]

Pretty much what @Brett327 said. I'm sure they could sell a few but I just don't see how it's a viable business model. Fuel costs and public opposition were what hobbled Concorde and Boeing SST in the 70s and it's not like either of those have gotten more favorable.

 

[Jim123]

The article talks about LAX-NRT. Check out the prices of a business class, nonstop ticket and a first class ticket for the same. That will give some idea what a new SST is up against to be viable. What would it cost to operate a 45-seat SST? $100k/flight hour? $50k? $250k? It's not an impossible proposition but it's a very tall order.

(Business class is about $2-3k for a round trip ticket; first class is 5+ times that.)

 

[Randy Daytona]

There is always a market for luxury and exclusivity - hence the reason for Aston Martin, Patek Philippe watches, etc. At least with a supersonic airliner, it provides a tangible benefit of providing a service that others do not (saving time.) Will it economically viable? Might a company choose to operate it as a prestige/halo service even if it is a loss? Might it end up as a smaller business jet? Lets hope the engineers can make it happen - or if this generation's Don Draper can sell it.

 

[Uncle Fester]

Sure, there's always a market for premium products and services, but this would be a niche market at best and I can't see any of the majors going for it. The advantage of having premium service classes on widebodies is if the market shifts - e.g., another recession - you can reconfigure your existing aircraft. Which is expensive, but it sure beats putting a high-priced airplane on the shelf because no one is buying $20,000 prestige tickets.

Somebody would buy these if they were on offer. Hell, there are sheikhs with private A380s. But I doubt they could sell enough to justify the development costs.

 

[Randy Daytona]

Sure, there's always a market for premium products and services, but this would be a niche market at best and I can't see any of the majors going for it. The advantage of having premium service classes on widebodies is if the market shifts - e.g., another recession - you can reconfigure your existing aircraft. Which is expensive, but it sure beats putting a high-priced airplane on the shelf because no one is buying $20,000 prestige tickets.

Somebody would buy these if they were on offer. Hell, there are sheikhs with private A380s. But I doubt they could sell enough to justify the development costs.

I agree, it will be niche product and I don't see any of our domestic airlines offering it (but maybe Netjets?). Overseas - Emirates? Virgin? Cathay Pacific? As you said, a lot depends on developmental costs.

 

[zippy]

Sure, there's always a market for premium products and services, but this would be a niche market at best and I can't see any of the majors going for it. The advantage of having premium service classes on widebodies is if the market shifts - e.g., another recession - you can reconfigure your existing aircraft. Which is expensive, but it sure beats putting a high-priced airplane on the shelf because no one is buying $20,000 prestige tickets.

Somebody would buy these if they were on offer. Hell, there are sheikhs with private A380s. But I doubt they could sell enough to justify the development costs.

Another benefit to widebodies is the amount of cargo they can transport underneath the pax to offset, or supplement that income.

Range/fuel economy will be the biggest hinderance to putting one of these on an ultra long haul route that a place like Emirates uses with its business model.

While exclusively will appeal to a high income earning class of people, but most of the flying public will lament that the tickets cost more than $199.

 

[Hotdogs]

It was stupid in the 70s, and it's still stupid today.

...that's not the point though Brett...

 

[Flash]

There is always a market for luxury and exclusivity - hence the reason for Aston Martin, Patek Philippe watches, etc....

...As you said, a lot depends on developmental costs.

You already answered your own question, even the development of an Aston Martin doesn't run into the hundreds of millions of dollars, or more likely billions, you would need to develop a supersonic airliner. If 4 of the richest countries, at the time, couldn't swing it how on earth do you think even the richest airline could do it?!

 

[sevenhelmet]

Color me skeptical.

 

[Randy Daytona]

From Bloomberg and CNBC today. Will be interesting to see if this works out.

United Bets on Supersonic Future With $3 Billion Boom Jet Order

The airline (United) will buy 15 of the supersonic jets, which are expected to carry passengers in 2029, the companies said in a statement Thursday. At $200 million a plane, the deal is valued at $3 billion at list prices and Boom doesn’t offer discounts, said Blake Scholl, the aircraft developer’s founder and chief executive officer. United also took purchase options for 35 more planes.

United Bets on Supersonic Future With $3 Billion Boom Jet Order

United Airlines Holdings Inc. is jumping into the potential market for supersonic travel with the first firm order for Boom Technology Inc.’s Overture aircraft, wagering that business flyers will pay top dollar for speedier trips across oceans.

www.bloomberg.com

United Airlines will buy 15 ultrafast airplanes from start-up Boom Supersonic

Boom says its first commercial supersonic jet, the Overture, will fly at Mach 1.7 and cut some flight times in half.

www.cnbc.com

 

[GroundPounder]

I would file that in the " we shall see " folder.


The entire list of options & orders placed for Concorde by airlines, & cancellation dates

Pan Am
June 3rd 1963: - Options for 6 aircraft – 3 from Aerospatiale / 3 from BAC (2 more later optioned)
January 31st 1973: - Cancelled

July 24th 1966:- Options for 2 more aircraft – 1 from BAC & 1 from Aerospatiale
January 31st 1973:- Cancelled
Air France

June 3rd 1963: - Options for 6 aircraft

Jan.30th 1964: - Declaration of Intention from Air France to purchase 8 aircraft from Aerospatiale

July 28th 1972: - Order for 4 aircraft confirmed

BOAC (Later called British Airways)


June 3rd 1963: - Options for 6 aircraft

April 14th 1964: - Declaration of Intention from to purchase 8 aircraft from BAC

July 28th 1972: - Order for 5 aircraft confirmed

Continental

July 24th 1963: - Options for 3 aircraft from BAC
March 1973: - Cancelled

TWA

October 16th 1963: - Options for 4 aircraft from BAC
February 1973: - Cancelled

March 30th 1964:- Options for 2 more aircraft from BAC
February 1973:- Cancelled

American Airlines

Oct.7th 1963: - Options for 4 aircraft from Aerospatiale
February 1973: – Cancelled

Jan.16th 1964: - Options for 2 more aircraft from Aerospatiale
February 1973: - Cancelled

MEA/Air Liban

Dec.4th 1963: - Options for 2 aircraft from Aerospatiale
June 1973: - Cancelled

Jan.16th 1964: - Options for 2 more aircraft from Aerospatiale
February 1973: - Cancelled



Qantas

March 19th 1964:- Options for 4 aircraft from BAC – Options never officially cancelled.



Air India

July15th 1964:- Options for 2 aircraft from BAC
February 1975:- Cancelled



Japan Airlines

September 30th 1965:- Options for 3 aircraft from Aerospatiale
1973:- Cancelled



Sabena

December 1st 1975:- Options for 2 aircraft from Aerospatiale
February 1973:- Cancelled



Eastern Airlines

June 28th 1966: - Options for 2 aircraft from Aerospatiale
February 1973:- Cancelled

August 15th 1966:- Options for 2 more aircraft from Aerospatiale
February 1973:- Cancelled

April 28th 1967:- Options for 2 more aircraft from Aerospatiale
February 1973:- Cancelled



United Airlines

June 29th 1966:- Options for 6 aircraft from BAC
November 1972:- Cancelled



Braniff

Septenber 1st 1966:- Options for 3 aircraft from Aerospatiale
February 1973:- Cancelled



Lufthansa

February 16th 1967: - Options for 3 aircraft from Aerospatiale
April 1973:- Cancelled



Air Canada

March 1st 1967:- Options for 4 aircraft from BAC
June 1972:- Cancelled



CAAC

July 24th 1972:- Options for 2 aircraft from Aerospatiale
December 1979:- Cancelled

August 28th 1972:- Options for 1 aircraft from BAC
February 1980:- Cancelled

Iran Air

October 8th 1972:- Options for1 aircraft from BAC, orders for 2 confirmed, then cancelled.
February 1980:- All orders and options cancelled