First the disclaimer: This brief was received the week of 24AUG04. Things change, but the trend certainly seems down. It makes no difference what stats some guy had even last month, let alone a BDCP guy selected a year ago. In any case, if your recruiter says go ahead with an app, do as he recommends and pray for the best. In the end the only word you can be sure of is the reject or select letter you get from CNRC.
A reminder: The FY is from OCT-end of SEP. An OCS quota is based on when you are commissioned, not when you go to OCS. Since OCS is about 3 months long, most classes beginning in JUL will count towards the next FY. ie, SEP 04 class is a FY 05 slot. They normally fill OCS slot in the current FY and the Next. BDCP and NUPOC are exceptions because they can be three year programs.
The brief: FY 05 is effectively closed to all designators except medical chaplin and supply. There may be some occasional NFO quota open. The Navy was sitting on nearly 100% goal for pilot and NFO. A few weeks ago CNRC dropped the quota by over 50%!. Since they were already at 100% the effect was to end up with an overmanned position of 100%. That is why you hear so much about guys having OCS pushed back or maybe a pro rec but nonselected.
FY06 quotas are up in the air. The NRDs were told to expect a dramatic decrease in goal for pilot and somewhat less so for NFO. Since many of the FY 05 over selects are still on board, they will likely take up some current FY 06 slots and then the reduction will eat up many of the rest. That is why there is little movement on aviation OCS apps now. They are waiting to get a handle on manning needs, how to handle the current over manning and future officer end strength, that is also being revised down. There is a possiblity that FY 06 will not open again for pilots and NFO will close up rapidly. FY 07 will open and close very fast when they get those numbers later this year.
Analysis: Aviation selects just suck!. We had a guy with 3.81 gpa in engineering with a 52 OAR and 24 years old rejected. Don't expect anything for FY 05 unless you are an NFO app, walk on water and have your kit back there now! It will likely not get any better. Remember, we are talking small numbers to begin with. Only expected to need about 80 pilots and 90 NFOs nationwide. That has gone down. Only needed 20 SWOs. Think the competition is tight for that job? In the next couple years the real opportunities are going to be in CEC (Seabees rock, M-16s, transits and bull dozers) and Supply Corps. Supply will probably be looking for well over 100 a year. The CEC guys will need about as many as NFO, but it will be far more stable. Age has become a tie breaker in all OCS selections. I'm not just talking about the guy pushing 27 for pilot. I mean every app is expected to be as young as possilble. If they have 3 slots and 4 very similar apps, the three youngest guys get in even if the oldest was the ripe age of 25. Think they will grant the medical waiver you wanted, think again.
I am sure this is devastating news to many of you. Some should thank their stars they slipped in. All I can say is stay tuned. Keep in touch with your recruiter. If he says you have no chance, that is probably so. If he is giving you the run around, he may just be too much of a wimp to give you the bad news. You might want to move on. If he says go for it, then don't delay! Get on it and Get 'er done! If you have an offer on the table think very very hard about not taking it. It is highly unlike they will ever make a second offer to someone later in this hyper competitive environment. If you are too young or not yet qualified, expect stiff competition in the future. Keep your GPA up, make yourself the best applicant possible. Others may want to look at ROTC or the USNA. Even if in college, you can still apply for those programs if you don't have too many credits and aren't too old. There are some 2 year ROTC options out there. One reason we got a reduction in OCS aviation is because the ROTC and USNA guys took more than expected. If you have the background for Supply or CEC then take a close look at those programs. Learn something about them and you may find they are attractive after all.
Good Luck Ladies and Gentlemen.
A reminder: The FY is from OCT-end of SEP. An OCS quota is based on when you are commissioned, not when you go to OCS. Since OCS is about 3 months long, most classes beginning in JUL will count towards the next FY. ie, SEP 04 class is a FY 05 slot. They normally fill OCS slot in the current FY and the Next. BDCP and NUPOC are exceptions because they can be three year programs.
The brief: FY 05 is effectively closed to all designators except medical chaplin and supply. There may be some occasional NFO quota open. The Navy was sitting on nearly 100% goal for pilot and NFO. A few weeks ago CNRC dropped the quota by over 50%!. Since they were already at 100% the effect was to end up with an overmanned position of 100%. That is why you hear so much about guys having OCS pushed back or maybe a pro rec but nonselected.
FY06 quotas are up in the air. The NRDs were told to expect a dramatic decrease in goal for pilot and somewhat less so for NFO. Since many of the FY 05 over selects are still on board, they will likely take up some current FY 06 slots and then the reduction will eat up many of the rest. That is why there is little movement on aviation OCS apps now. They are waiting to get a handle on manning needs, how to handle the current over manning and future officer end strength, that is also being revised down. There is a possiblity that FY 06 will not open again for pilots and NFO will close up rapidly. FY 07 will open and close very fast when they get those numbers later this year.
Analysis: Aviation selects just suck!. We had a guy with 3.81 gpa in engineering with a 52 OAR and 24 years old rejected. Don't expect anything for FY 05 unless you are an NFO app, walk on water and have your kit back there now! It will likely not get any better. Remember, we are talking small numbers to begin with. Only expected to need about 80 pilots and 90 NFOs nationwide. That has gone down. Only needed 20 SWOs. Think the competition is tight for that job? In the next couple years the real opportunities are going to be in CEC (Seabees rock, M-16s, transits and bull dozers) and Supply Corps. Supply will probably be looking for well over 100 a year. The CEC guys will need about as many as NFO, but it will be far more stable. Age has become a tie breaker in all OCS selections. I'm not just talking about the guy pushing 27 for pilot. I mean every app is expected to be as young as possilble. If they have 3 slots and 4 very similar apps, the three youngest guys get in even if the oldest was the ripe age of 25. Think they will grant the medical waiver you wanted, think again.
I am sure this is devastating news to many of you. Some should thank their stars they slipped in. All I can say is stay tuned. Keep in touch with your recruiter. If he says you have no chance, that is probably so. If he is giving you the run around, he may just be too much of a wimp to give you the bad news. You might want to move on. If he says go for it, then don't delay! Get on it and Get 'er done! If you have an offer on the table think very very hard about not taking it. It is highly unlike they will ever make a second offer to someone later in this hyper competitive environment. If you are too young or not yet qualified, expect stiff competition in the future. Keep your GPA up, make yourself the best applicant possible. Others may want to look at ROTC or the USNA. Even if in college, you can still apply for those programs if you don't have too many credits and aren't too old. There are some 2 year ROTC options out there. One reason we got a reduction in OCS aviation is because the ROTC and USNA guys took more than expected. If you have the background for Supply or CEC then take a close look at those programs. Learn something about them and you may find they are attractive after all.
Good Luck Ladies and Gentlemen.
