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Promotion Rates as a Naval Aviator

bubblehead

Registered Member
Contributor
^^^ Pretty much. #2 comes from your work ethic. Be smart about the others and don't be too trusting that #2 will get you through.

My year group was several years ahead of that FY13-15 train wreck that the OP noted. Not foreseeing those boards myself, I gave a lot of JO aviators simple advice that was based mostly on #2—work hard and the reward would come—up until about 2011-2012. As those promotion rates started to nosedive, I switched my advice and my audience to telling the front office that they needed to think of their fitrep rack and stack as picking who would not get promoted (training squadron < FRS, therefore no competitive EP = no promote). I gave both types of advice in good faith- I was wrong on the first kind (hindsight sucks) but I was right on the second (right as in I hate it when I'm right).


@Tycho_Brohe , yes the "BUPERS math" seems annoying when you first see it but it's legitimate. It's based on a five year average of the odds of getting promoted, not necessarily the odds of getting promoted on your first look, and it comes from something called DOPMA that applies to all federal employees.
The Community Health brief will detail accessions, sources, number of bodies needed versus current count, etc. Gives you a good idea of manning.
 

ATIS

Well-Known Member
Why do kids not even in the program or flight school ask questions about promotion rates? How does that even get into the conversation? If you were to ask me that in person....my honest to God answer back would be: "Are you f-cking kidding me".

Am I that much of a dinosaur that thinking about promotion to the rank of 04, something a person can't really manage or control until they are in the program playing the game, is not computing in my head?

You know what myself and anyone else in my ROTC, SNFO, RAG class talked about....it was promotion to 04. We were there to lead, fly, and have fun. Don't come back with that "well I'm looking into the future, or I am covering all my bases" aspect. Be a warrior.

Get a Commission, get into flight school, and get wings....and serve your country. Until then, don't waste a F-ing brain cell on if you will promote, get your priorities straight.

ATIS
 

squorch2

he will die without safety brief
pilot
They may have seen/heard about the bloodbath and think “damn, I don’t want that to be me.”
 

DanMa1156

Is it baseball season yet?
pilot
Contributor
They may have seen/heard about the bloodbath and think “damn, I don’t want that to be me.”

Agreed - many of today's MIDN and ENS's are being taught by people who saw the aforementioned "bloodbath." There are definitely guys in HT advanced who ask something along the lines of "will platform selection change my chance of promotion?" Many of their reserve instructors are guys who were 2xFOS active duty.
 

ATIS

Well-Known Member
BS, in the 90's so were my instructors….every P-cola and RAG instructor I had with a single anchor was going to the show (some stayed Reserves as well).

Nobody cared about 04.....even when the detailer came out to the RAG and said you are all going to make 05 because of T-notch. Nobody for sure was thinking about it or factoring it into any equation before commissioning or winging. We cared about what platform we got and what coast we got (in my case...CVW-5/Japan), and who was buying at the club (or rolling first).

Worry about 04 when you get to your first ship/squadron and see if the Navy is a way of life and part of your future.


ATIS
 
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BarryD

Well-Known Member
Contributor
The career path part of our aviation community brief was basically:
-They want you on the golden path.
-Get the #1 EP.
-Flying is more important than getting a masters if you want to continue flying (as a JO).
-If you don't want to go to a production billet, your signaling to the Navy you want to get out.
-Disassociated tour = pain (Person presenting said he loved his dissociated tour though)
-If you don't get that #1 EP after your DH tour you won't make command and you're not flying anymore.

That being said most of us think along the lines of "this thing interests me so I want to do it." Screening for LCDR isn't what keeps me awake at night, making sure I actively try to suck less where I am now is what I think about.

Maybe I'm not a "strategic thinker".
 

Recovering LSO

Suck Less
pilot
Contributor
BS, in the 90's so were my instructors….every P-cola and RAG instructor I had with a single anchor was going to the show (some stayed Reserves as well).

Nobody cared about 04.....even when the detailer came out to the RAG and said you are all going to make 05 because of T-notch. Nobody for sure was thinking about it or factoring it into any equation before commissioning or winging. We cared about what platform we got and what coast we got (in my case...CVW-5/Japan), and who was buying at the club (or rolling first).

Worry about 04 when you get to your first ship/squadron and see if the Navy is a way of life and part of your future.


ATIS
You asked a question, two guys with first hand contemporary knowledge answered it. What more are you looking for, to change people’s minds? You’ve come to wrong website.
 

ATIS

Well-Known Member
You asked a question, two guys with first hand contemporary knowledge answered it. What more are you looking for, to change people’s minds? You’ve come to wrong website.

Changing minds, no chance Paddles. just stating frustration with the mindset.

ATIS
 

DanMa1156

Is it baseball season yet?
pilot
Contributor
BS, in the 90's so were my instructors….every P-cola and RAG instructor I had with a single anchor was going to the show (some stayed Reserves as well).

Nobody cared about 04.....even when the detailer came out to the RAG and said you are all going to make 05 because of T-notch. Nobody for sure was thinking about it or factoring it into any equation before commissioning or winging. We cared about what platform we got and what coast we got (in my case...CVW-5/Japan), and who was buying at the club (or rolling first).

Worry about 04 when you get to your first ship/squadron and see if the Navy is a way of life and part of your future.


ATIS

Consider now that it's the opposite, the detailer calls and says "dude, no chance on O-4;" (and you can pretty much tell what your chances are as soon as you can read the tea leaves on what your first highwater FITREP will be), that by the time you're done with Primary, you pretty much know what platform you'll fly with only minor variations (save for the -53), the coasts are a crapshoot in availability, and so far, including my time in the Navy, I've only seen "all hands" clubs or a single Chiefs' Club at Mayport, except at NAS Fallon which is awesome, but you're there no more than 4-6 weeks at a time as a JO. I'd call the I-Bar the next closest thing I've seen to an O-Club, but even then, it was often filled with geezers touring San Diego and I've now been on two bases that have done breathalyzers before leaving base. It's a different Navy and a different generation of people wanting to be pilots. Do I agree with the thinking of the OP? No. Do I understand where both of you are coming from? Yup. Different generations. People care about it.

Separately, I guess I've never asked - what's your background? Why no wings under username?
 

BarryD

Well-Known Member
Contributor
The I-Bar is full of geezer tourists? That’s too bad. Do they still play Ship-Captain-Crew there?
 

DanMa1156

Is it baseball season yet?
pilot
Contributor
The I-Bar is full of geezer tourists? That’s too bad. Do they still play Ship-Captain-Crew there?

It's not full of them, but they are there. Plenty of them have interesting stories. Plenty other sit in the corner and just drink and enjoy the memories.

Never heard of that game unless that's a different name than the "die game" or "beer dice" we played.
 

ATIS

Well-Known Member
Separately, I guess I've never asked - what's your background? Why no wings under username?

I need wings next to my username to be legit here? I assumed folks here could tell from my previous posts I’ve been around. Maybe I need to re-evaluate.

Been wearing wings since ‘94, didn’t know that was a go/no go here.

As I stated, I’m a dinosaur and based on your comments things have changed. Doesn’t lessen my initial premis that it’s a sad state that young men and women looking to enter into this profession even think about promotion past the normal “fog a mirror” and make O3.

ATIS...out
 

DanMa1156

Is it baseball season yet?
pilot
Contributor
I need wings next to my username to be legit here? I assumed folks here could tell from my previous posts I’ve been around. Maybe I need to re-evaluate.

Been wearing wings since ‘94, didn’t know that was a go/no go here.

As I stated, I’m a dinosaur and based on your comments things have changed. Doesn’t lessen my initial premis that it’s a sad state that young men and women looking to enter into this profession even think about promotion past the normal “fog a mirror” and make O3.

ATIS...out

Obviously I knew you were legit man, but I was just curious, not trying to be an internet troll. I still have no idea what you flew and I didn't know what era. To be honest, I thought you were even younger than that!
 
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