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Promotion Rates as a Naval Aviator

papacarter

College Student
Hey guys, SNA prospect here. If I were to do Naval Avaition, I would want to make Navy a career. However, there's not much info on this forum about promotion rates from O-3 to O-4 and beyond. I mean there's some, but not much to really go off of. Found this but 2013 isn't really current (https://www.airwarriors.com/community/threads/making-o-4-competitive-or-shoe-in.40833/).

It's understood that since you have an 8 year commitment, you're pretty much guaranteed to get O-3 (given that you don't do stupid shit). Reading elsewhere, it seems that after completing the "aviation appreciated tour," you're pretty much shown the door if you're not selected for O-4. 50%ish selection rate does does seem to be cutthroat to make O-4 compared to other communities.

Honestly, what can you do to even make yourself competitive (besides fitness) when the time comes?

For NAs (https://www.public.navy.mil/bupers-npc/boards/activedutyofficer/archive/Pages/default.aspx)
FY19: 70.77%
FY18: 70.02%
FY17: 82.65%
FY16: 71.60%
FY15: 56.22%
FY14: 65.56%
FY13: 66.93%
 
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sevenhelmet

Low calorie attack from the Heartland
pilot
Wow, that's super shit

All right new guy, here's your freebie:

You do know he's kidding, right? 42% is the forum standard answer to questions that simply don't have a straight answer, a reference to the number 42 being the answer to the ultimate question in Douglas Adams' Hitchiker's Guide to the Galaxy. The ultimate question itself, of course, remaining unknown.

You're asking question that defies a meaningful answer. Promotion rates fluctuate up and down based on a bunch of variables that don't always make logical sense or follow a predictable pattern. It's very difficult to forecast what promotion rates will look like by the time you reach your in-zone O-4 board. Telling you last year's rates won't do jack squat for you, nor would trying to make predictions about what I'm guessing is roughly fiscal year 2030. Meanwhile, there are about 1,000,000 things that could change your mind about having a full career in the Navy between now and then.

Focus on getting a commission and a spot in flight school first. Then, focus on doing well in the syllabus. Give the next step your best effort, and have a good attitude. If you're doing those things, life tends to work out, and you'll tend to land on your feet even when it doesn't.
 

Mos

Well-Known Member
None
1) As you go through each portion of the aviation training pipeline, commit yourself to studying hard so you can make it to your first squadron.
2) In your first squadron, give an honest day's work, get fully qualified in the aircraft, be a team player and take initiative. Your first tour performance is critical in many ways.
3) Get informed about how your career path decisions following your first tour increase or decrease your competitiveness. There are discussions elsewhere here on that.
 

Tycho_Brohe

Well-Known Member
pilot
Contributor
I never understood why they present those selection numbers the way that they do. My understanding is that the selection rate = IZ, BZ, and AZ selects divided by IZ eligible? I don't know who that number is important to, but it's not to the people worried about promoting. I'd be much more concerned about IZ eligible divided by IZ select itself, which in this case is 63%, and at one point recently was down to ~50%, but people from PERS were still saying something like 70%. What's with the fuzzy math?

Oh and to answer OP's question, kick ass at every command you go to, stay on the golden path, and you'll be fine. Trying to predict where promotion rates will be 10+ years from now is impossible. All you can do is work on your side of the equation. And have a backup plan.
 

RedFive

Well-Known Member
pilot
None
Contributor
Kick ass at every command you go to, stay on the golden path, and you'll be fine.
I don't exactly agree with the first part of your statement because there are no guarantees, even on the Golden Path.
Trying to predict where promotion rates will be 10+ years from now is impossible. All you can do is work on your side of the equation. And have a backup plan.
I do agree with the second. OP, read @Tycho_Brohe's statement several times.

Staying on the Golden Path doesn't necessarily equate to guaranteed success. As we've discussed elsewhere on this site, you can get EPs everywhere you go off the Golden Path and it's well known that you'll have an uphill battle. That said, one of my Golden Path friends has run into significant career turmoil directly caused by politics. I'm being vague because it's not my place to share the details, but the point is this...

There's a fuckload of things you cannot control in life and very few that you can. The sooner you explore the existential nature of this human dilemma, the sooner you'll truly understand the futility of your post. But don't be discouraged by my words or someone else throwing out "42%" because I guarantee you every single winged aviator has asked a 42% question at some point in their life. You could get hit by a bus tomorrow. You could be an Admiral in 30 years. You might have one spouse for the rest of your life or four. Don't worry about what might happen eight or nine years into your career, focus on now. Seriously. It's great to understand the process and various options that may present themselves to you during your career, but your primary responsibility is to yourself in the present. So make the best decision for you, right now. What will come will come.

p.s. Fitness doesn't mean jack shit for promotion. It's a pass/fail evolution. However, the Navy has recently incentivized the PRT by allowing you to skip a cycle if you smoke it. It's great.
 

Jim123

DD-214 in hand and I'm gonna party like it's 1998
pilot
Learn to write better read good?
FIFY

567y2b5.gif
 

squorch2

he will die without safety brief
pilot
1) do your damndest to acquire good timing
2) failing that, do your best to do well in your jobs
2a) quickly determine what, exactly, your job is
3) create and update your bailout plan - everyone gets out eventually.

All else is beyond your control.
 

Corpsmanup780

Well-Known Member
pilot
Start with the closest alligator to the boat and get a commission...THEN start worrying about all of the other things that come with being in the Navy.

Also just a little more insight, flying military aircraft in my opinion and likely in most everyone else's opinion here is one of the best gigs out there. Even if you get passed up for 04 and get sent home you still got to do one of the coolest things an adult can do with his or her pants on. Enjoy the ride instead of worrying about when it will end. The end will come at some point for everyone and if you spent your time focused on that, you will miss a metric ton of awesomeness!
 

squorch2

he will die without safety brief
pilot
1) do your damndest to acquire good timing
2) failing that, do your best to do well in your jobs
2a) quickly determine what, exactly, your job is
3) create and update your bailout plan - everyone gets out eventually.

All else is beyond your control.

This plan works well in the civ world too.
 

Jim123

DD-214 in hand and I'm gonna party like it's 1998
pilot
1) do your damndest to acquire good timing
2) failing that, do your best to do well in your jobs
2a) quickly determine what, exactly, your job is
3) create and update your bailout plan - everyone gets out eventually.

All else is beyond your control.
^^^ Pretty much. #2 comes from your work ethic. Be smart about the others and don't be too trusting that #2 will get you through.

My year group was several years ahead of that FY13-15 train wreck that the OP noted. Not foreseeing those boards myself, I gave a lot of JO aviators simple advice that was based mostly on #2—work hard and the reward would come—up until about 2011-2012. As those promotion rates started to nosedive, I switched my advice and my audience to telling the front office that they needed to think of their fitrep rack and stack as picking who would not get promoted (training squadron < FRS, therefore no competitive EP = no promote). I gave both types of advice in good faith- I was wrong on the first kind (hindsight sucks) but I was right on the second (right as in I hate it when I'm right).


@Tycho_Brohe , yes the "BUPERS math" seems annoying when you first see it but it's legitimate. It's based on a five year average of the odds of getting promoted, not necessarily the odds of getting promoted on your first look, and it comes from something called DOPMA that applies to all federal employees.
 
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