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NEWS Waterfront property in the Spratlys? Good investment or not?

Flash

SEVAL/ECMO
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Super Moderator
Contributor
China will win the long game, because they can. They have the willpower (across all levers of national power) to do what is neccessary to take what they want now, and wait 50+ years til everyone who remembers it is dead.

That is an incredibly presumptuous thing to assume and it doesn't take into account some of the huge challenges as a nation China faces over the next 50 years, HSCS has already pointed out perhaps their biggest one. There are plenty of other challenges for them to include some it can't change, like geography.

Concur. Which is why they are addressing 2 resource needs with 1 strategy: Acquire huge areas of ocean that happen to be rich in both hydrocarbons and seafood. Feed your people fish, warm their homes with nat gas, and fuel their cars. And coerce/ bully/ fight/ tax (shipping)/ or ignore those who oppose you.

Yeah, they really aren't exactly 'acquiring' it. It is a big sea with lots of players and with a huge part of the world's sea traffic going through it, best of luck to China trying to tell all of them it's theirs now.
 

wink

War Hoover NFO.
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Super Moderator
Contributor
...

Yeah, they really aren't exactly 'acquiring' it. It is a big sea with lots of players and with a huge part of the world's sea traffic going through it, best of luck to China trying to tell all of them it's theirs now.
Does it really matter if anyone else accepts that it is theirs, as long as no one does anything about it and China is able to keep exploiting the resources?
 

Flash

SEVAL/ECMO
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Super Moderator
Contributor
Does it really matter if anyone else accepts that it is theirs, as long as no one does anything about it and China is able to keep exploiting the resources?

Pay closer attention, there are several countries that are 'doing something about it'.
 

jmcquate

Well-Known Member
Contributor
Your'e right Flash. but only after those countries got a swift kick in the balls. The ChiComs pulled off a nice trick. If the the PLAN is ready to defend the sea lanes they would like to...........well that's a ways away. If they do or not, will depend on PACFLEET and our old SEATO allies, (and I hate to say it, but the folks at State).
 

wink

War Hoover NFO.
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Super Moderator
Contributor
Pay closer attention, there are several countries that are 'doing something about it'.
I have been. Lately the Chinese have added a new missle capability. Before that it was ESM/ECM. Before that a military airbase. Before that a port. Whatever you refer to i am missing, it isn't working. As long as the other parties, some of whom are our allies, are unwilling to be bitch slapped if they go kinitic the Chinese will proceed. The USA certainly can not, will not, do what is necessary.
 

Flash

SEVAL/ECMO
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Super Moderator
Contributor
I have been. Lately the Chinese have added a new missle capability. Before that it was ESM/ECM. Before that a military airbase. Before that a port. Whatever you refer to i am missing, it isn't working. As long as the other parties, some of whom are our allies, are unwilling to be bitch slapped if they go kinitic the Chinese will proceed.

Not all of the other SCS claimants have been accommodating to the Chinese, Indonesia has lately been more aggressive about enforcing its claims against Chinese (and Vietnamese) encroachment while Vietnam has a long history of pushing back forcefully against the Chinese. And recent accommodation by the Philippines towards China could easily change with a new President.

The USA certainly can not, will not, do what is necessary.

And what would that be? Short of going to war what can or should we do?
 

wink

War Hoover NFO.
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Super Moderator
Contributor
Not all of the other SCS claimants have been accommodating to the Chinese, Indonesia has lately been more aggressive about enforcing its claims against Chinese (and Vietnamese) encroachment while Vietnam has a long history of pushing back forcefully against the Chinese. And recent accommodation by the Philippines towards China could easily change with a new President.



And what would that be? Short of going to war what can or should we do?
It would take highly costly sanctions or major combat to dissuade the Chinese from their path in the SCS. None of the parties/claimants can apply any reasonably hurtful sanctions on the Chinese, indeed, the Chinese could crush most those nations in economic retaliation. As far as combat, again, none of these countries are even near competitors. The die is cast. China is an 800 lb gorilla. Nothing can stop them now but actions no one is able to take or willing to take. The USA is in that cohort. Whatever the options the US has in the SCS, it is clear it would have been far less costly when the Chicoms started dredging and making rhetorical claims. The dredging started in 2013 during the last administration, and the US did next to nothing while the Chicoms built an entire military complex out of nothing, destabilizing the SCS and pushing out their sphere of influence. Our reluctance to invest in the issue when the cost was minimal and the likelihood of changing China's policy wrt to the Spratlys and SCS was actually possible, has resulted in OUR loss, not just the actual claimants. Good on the Indonesians and others for getting a back bone. But NOTHING (realistically) will dislodge the Chinese now.
 

Hair Warrior

Well-Known Member
Contributor
To dislodge China, it would basically take a man made or naturally occurring tsunami, which obviously inflicts collateral damage regionally.
 

peppergunner

ɹǝqɯǝW pǝʇɹǝʌuI
I for one say let them have it.

I extremely don't want to die over mineral rights in the SCS, alliances be dawned.
I thought the issue was more about the international water lane that changes due to Chinese claims to these islands. Am I misunderstanding the situation?
 

Flash

SEVAL/ECMO
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
It would take highly costly sanctions or major combat to dissuade the Chinese from their path in the SCS....Whatever the options the US has in the SCS, it is clear it would have been far less costly when the Chicoms started dredging and making rhetorical claims. The dredging started in 2013 during the last administration, and the US did next to nothing while the Chicoms built an entire military complex out of nothing, destabilizing the SCS and pushing out their sphere of influence. Our reluctance to invest in the issue when the cost was minimal and the likelihood of changing China's policy wrt to the Spratlys and SCS was actually possible, has resulted in OUR loss, not just the actual claimants.

What exactly could we have done when the Chinese started dredging? You claim the cost would have been ‘minimal’, please tell me just what do you mean by ‘minimal’? Protested and publicized their illegal activity? Over the top rhetoric saying it was the worst decision, like ever? Or something more direct? Like the President pledging to intervene on behalf of a Chinese company our own government sanctioned for supporting the illegal activity?

Seriously, short of physically confronting the Chinese what were our realistic alternatives?
 

Flash

SEVAL/ECMO
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Super Moderator
Contributor
I thought the issue was more about the international water lane that changes due to Chinese claims to these islands. Am I misunderstanding the situation?

The shipping lanes are not really affected by the Chinese moves in the SCS.
 

wink

War Hoover NFO.
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Super Moderator
Contributor
Keep your story straight, flash. First you claim claimant countries that are no peer to China are doing something meaningful now, then you claim that over 10 years ago when the Chinese presence was dredging barges nothing could have been done.

As to your comment regarding SLOC, I say, for now. If they chose to in the future they now have established military and logistics capability to interfer with far greater ease than before.

Your Trump frustration is showing. Very much beneath you and not germane to the debate at hand.
 

Brett327

Well-Known Member
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Super Moderator
Contributor
nothing could have been done.
The question stands, though. What could have been done? If you think that the US engaging in military operations against China would have been a viable strategy, please make your case.
 
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