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KSA vs Iran

Randy Daytona

Cold War Relic
pilot
Super Moderator
What the Hell Just Happened in Saudi Arabia?
Saudi Arabia Charges Iran With ‘Act of War,’ Raising Threat of Military Clash


Mohammed bin Salman, the Crown Prince of KSA, is going full Michael Corleone, arresting a lot of rivals on charges of corruption, among other things, and now looking like he wants to settle the check with the Iranians. The Kingdom has been in a rough spot for a few years - domestic unrest, deflating oil prices, and Iran stirring shit up to their north and south, and now they're stuck in a Yemeni quagmire. Clearly the US admin has signaled to him that we won't interfere. I think the next six months may prove interesting in and around the Arabian peninsula....

Article on this in Foreign Policy a couple of days ago.

The First Saudi-Iranian War Will Be an Even Fight
What happens when the Saudi military's massive budget meets Iran's mastery of asymmetric warfare? Here's a preview.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/05/07/the-first-saudi-iranian-war-will-be-an-even-fight/
 

Hair Warrior

Well-Known Member
Contributor

  1. This is long overdue.
  2. The mainstream media is not talking enough about this action.
  3. Say what you will (some of you) about Obama being better than Trump, but don’t forget which one labeled the IRGC a terrorist organization, and which one handed IRGC a plane-load of $400M in cash.
  4. KSA and Pakistan will probably never make the state sponsor of terrorism list, but one could argue that the ISI and certain Saudi-based organizations also deserve the same treatment.
 

Brett327

Well-Known Member
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
which one handed IRGC a plane-load of $400M in cash.
It’s was Iran’s cash to begin with. I’m certainly not going to make excuses on behalf of Iran as a bad actor, but this trope about the USG giving Iran a bunch of cash, as though it came from the US Treasury, is a dishonest rhetorical device used to lie to people too stupid to know any better... and I know that you’re smarter than that. It’s pure partisan hackery. You might as well tack on a “thanks Obama” for good measure. Not a good look for an apolitical Intelligence Professional.
 

Hair Warrior

Well-Known Member
Contributor
It was Iran’s money held overseas that the U.S. seized in 1979 when Iran stormed the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and took hostage our personnel there.

However, if the U.S. was required by law, regulation, policy, or international norms to return Iran’s money - Why then? Why not years earlier? Why the timing? Why in the middle of the night on pallets?

If we are being specific, the cash delivered recently was almost certainly from the U.S. Treasury, because money seized in 1979 was seized in Iran’s electronic bank accounts and was not seized as bundles of cash. Cash used in 1979 is almost certainly no longer in circulation anyway. So, to create new cash pallets, digital currency in frozen Iranian accounts would have had to be withdrawn and dispensed as paper currency, using available paper currency on hand. Not that it really matters.

I think common sense and publicly available information says that the IRGC backs terrorist organizations and is itself a foreign terror sponsor. It’s apolitical and members of both political parties have chastised Iran’s participation in terrorism. Also, it’s now U.S. official policy. I support the official U.S. policy.
 

Angry

NFO in Jax
None
Well let's be honest - we screwed them pretty good only giving them $400 million (which I believe is the amount we originally seized). That same amount invested at 6% interest and assuming an inflation rate of 3.28% between '79 and '16 would have been over $4 billion dollars. That's not bad economic warfare...
 

Hair Warrior

Well-Known Member
Contributor
Yeah... but we weren’t allowed to invest it over that time, so it’s moot. Also, who knows what the real value comparison is when you factor in IRR:USD nominal exchange rate fluctuation over 40 years, plus different domestic inflation in each country that may have devalued each currency at different rates.

Anyway. My apologies if my post offended anyone. I think the IRGC are assholes and I’m glad we’re taking a poop on them finally. Any thoughts on what Iran does next?
 
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Brett327

Well-Known Member
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
It was Iran’s money held overseas that the U.S. seized in 1979 when Iran stormed the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and took hostage our personnel there.

However, if the U.S. was required by law, regulation, policy, or international norms to return Iran’s money - Why then? Why not years earlier? Why the timing? Why in the middle of the night on pallets?

If we are being specific, the cash delivered recently was almost certainly from the U.S. Treasury, because money seized in 1979 was seized in Iran’s electronic bank accounts and was not seized as bundles of cash. Cash used in 1979 is almost certainly no longer in circulation anyway. So, to create new cash pallets, digital currency in frozen Iranian accounts would have had to be withdrawn and dispensed as paper currency, using available paper currency on hand. Not that it really matters.

I think common sense and publicly available information says that the IRGC backs terrorist organizations and is itself a foreign terror sponsor. It’s apolitical and members of both political parties have chastised Iran’s participation in terrorism. Also, it’s now U.S. official policy. I support the official U.S. policy.
Don’t obfuscate. Nothing about this transfer is a mystery. It was part of the JCPOA and completely transparent. It is 100% a partisan talking point.
 

Notanaviator

Well-Known Member
Contributor
Getting back to an interesting part of this thread, The Prize by Daniel Yergin is an absolutely terrific read. Definitely a long read, basically an encyclopedia for the history of Oil and Gas (interesting in its own right), but a great unbiased read that runs through in exhaustive detail how the West effectively created its own problems by forming completely arbitrary boundaries, and where alliances came from.

A consideration here not mentioned previously is the real extent to which non Russian E&P companies are much more competent operators and servicers of Saudi and other fields, and that’s got to be a real consideration for those folks.

That said, previous comments (in 2017!) are spot on that we have a difficult set of considerations of our own- KSA might be better ‘friends’ than others in that region, but they’re no great friends of ours, and at the moment we’re financing a questionable war against Yemen that’s also rooted in natural resources. It’s a difficult thing indeed to decide just where we draw lines on being the leaders of the free world and determining the moral rights and wrongs of other sovereign nations actions.
 

Hair Warrior

Well-Known Member
Contributor
Don’t obfuscate. Nothing about this transfer is a mystery. It was part of the JCPOA and completely transparent. It is 100% a partisan talking point.
How’s the JCPOA doing? What did JCPOA set out to accomplish, what has it accomplished thus far, and what has it failed to accomplish?
 

Flash

SEVAL/ECMO
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
The mainstream media is not talking enough about this action.

You need to pay more attention to the news then, this action was either on the front page or near the top of the webpages of most major news organizations. Just because CNN/Fox News didn't blare it via chyron for half the day doesn't mean it wasn't covered.

Say what you will (some of you) about Obama being better than Trump, but don’t forget which one labeled the IRGC a terrorist organization, and which one handed IRGC a plane-load of $400M in cash.

It was actually the Iranian government the cash was handed over to, believe it or not they are not one and the same.

However, if the U.S. was required by law, regulation, policy, or international norms to return Iran’s money - Why then? Why not years earlier? Why the timing? Why in the middle of the night on pallets?

The payment settled the claim being pursued by Iran through the Iran-United States Claims Tribunal for the money from the FMS trust account, and Iran was likely to win since it was their money they actually paid us originally for FMS stuff.

The money was delivered in cash because Iran has been largely cut out of the international banking and finance system, so while previous payments to Iran from settlements by the IUSCT were done by wire that way apparently couldn't be done this time. The pallets were because it was a lot of money.

See what happens when you bother to do a little bit of research? It's almost...intel officer-like.

KSA and Pakistan will probably never make the state sponsor of terrorism list, but one could argue that the ISI and certain Saudi-based organizations also deserve the same treatment.

As wary as I am of the Saudis it would be a stretch to say that the government there is supporting active terrorist groups conducting operations in other countries. The Pakistanis, meh...
 
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Brett327

Well-Known Member
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
How’s the JCPOA doing? What did JCPOA set out to accomplish, what has it accomplished thus far, and what has it failed to accomplish?
Thats not relevant. It was the agreement settled upon by both states at the time. You can debate the efficacy of JCPOA independently of the idea that signatories actually comply with its contents.
 

Hair Warrior

Well-Known Member
Contributor
Are they not inextricably linked? It’s all related. It’s all part of tit-for-tat statecraft and applying levers of national power to shape outcomes.




^ smarter people than me are seeing links between JCPOA and IRGC support to terror.
 
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