Agreed. Cold War 2.0. Our long game is about stability and NKs eventual internal collapse. The internet has to make it there someday and allow the population to see what's being done to them.
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How about that North Korea?
- Thread starter xj220
- Start date
Agreed. Cold War 2.0. Our long game is about stability and NKs eventual internal collapse. The internet has to make it there someday and allow the population to see what's being done to them.
Max the Mad Russian
Hands off Ukraine! Feet too
Well, if the parts will manage to resolve the conflict without definite political changes, it will mean that nuclear deterrance is the ultimate statement warranting the ultimate survival of any possible political regime, period, you are right. Yet if not, if two Koreas will possess some kind of amalgamation sooner or later as a result of some political decisions without pushing the red buttons, it will prove the same we endured when USSR was disbanded: nuclear threat could be avoided by applying some clever though questionable movements. Nothing new all in all. But if the mutual nuclear strikes by limited amount of missiles will occur to be unlethal for the world order, it would mean that all the deterrance systems could be rendered obsolete. Imagine the new burst of the armament race then... It seems that there are people among militaries as well as business circles all around the world who don't mind to check it.
Those are some interesting thoughts I hadn't considered. The survival of KJU's regime could be the ultimate testament to the value of nuclear weapons, and a successfully limited nuclear exchange could nearly destroy the concept of deterrence...So nuclear apocalypse is our best option?
We're all fucked.
Any viable solution must originate in China. The best pressure is to follow the money. If KFR's cash generation sources are impeded (coupled w/ PRC messaging), behavior will change.
There are other, simpler, slower delivery methods that are low-tech, hard to spot, and do not require the survival of the crew.
Max the Mad Russian
Hands off Ukraine! Feet too
Who knows? Shall ANY nuclear exchange lead to apocalypse? That is the question. From 1980s there was a question regarding Indo-Pac deterrance: several what-ifs about their tactical nuke exchange which had seemed to be quite possible. Soviet General Staff thought this will be a problem but not a disaster except for the area. The main concern was then to name the areas where it cannot be allowed by any means. And though one can call European part of USSR such area, the Eastern part of a country was less valuable in their opinion. That is why Pershing II precise ballistic missiles in Europe were to be eliminated politically no matter what the price could be, while the same weapon being deployed to, say, Japan - was quite bearable danger.
Back then, such Cartesian, pure practical approach was defeated by the "nuclear winter" theory, which is half- science and half-fiction, but not a single % practice. Some belligerent people expressed doubts in that second half then, and now they do it again.
Who is definitely out of this concern is China, totally agree with Hair Warrior. They should have some hidden cards in the sleeve, a measures which will matter for KJU
So then we have a failed state with nuclear weapons. Should work out just fine.
I'm only messing with you here, but in all seriousness, I'm not sure there is any way to "solve" North Korea. Only to try and minimize the threat, and be prepared for the wheels to fall off the nuclear wagon.
And they are likely pretty unreliable, fortunately for us.
This is why NK is what's known as a "wicked problem." There are no good solutions. Only solutions which might possibly be less shitty.
Definitely thought provoking.
A trend I've found interesting is NKs intense focus on the US, which also happens to be a lack of focus on SK. It makes sense with the threats going both ways, but like today when NK again says the US, "will pay due price," it's like they are skipping over the whole aspect of war on the Korean pensinsula, where SK civilians will be the biggest casualties.
I don't think that's anything new. NK has built their propaganda machine on the premise that the USA is the evil imperialist enemy that has prevented unification of the peninsula for decades. NK holding the South in their crosshairs is intended to "encourage" S.K. to reject the "imperialist enemy" and surrender to the "dear leader" or whatever the fuck they're forced to call their overweight man-child of a dictator.
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Makes sense. Divide and conquer.
Max the Mad Russian
Hands off Ukraine! Feet too
But one doesn't need to be a genius to understand this won't happen. NK is an utopia became reality by China and USSR allowance. Soviet regime is dead, China is not the same anymore. NK as such cannot last long, and the present tensions are the definite sign of the agony. The question is not will NK disappear from the maps, the question is when and in which circumstances? Say, if China will warrant all NK's nuke charges be placed under Chinese control and USA will in turn withdrew its forces from SK it will reborn the 1950 almost for sure. But if NK preliminary will pressed somehow to cut its normal weapon and disband several infantry divisions maintaining full control over nukes, that could be another story. Somewhere in between there could be enough time for TLAMs incoming to NK C2 targets from beyond the NK-China border overland. And this is not as unbelievable as it seems...
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