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ERAU Mishap in Daytona

Brett327

Well-Known Member
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
#62
Marine leadership is causing a higher mishap rate in Marine Air
I never suggested that - only that our service cultures are different. Having recently deployed with a VMFA squadron, the gung ho, get the job done at any cost, power through mindset was evident to me. That doesn't mean I wouldn’t want to go into combat with those guys - far from it, but there is a distinct service culture that influences behavior and decision making in subtle ways. It is both a strength and an occasional liability.
 
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hscs

Registered User
pilot
#64
That's a valid point, but the elements brought up in the article aren't HFACS analyses. They are basic facts like: pilots who had well below annual minimum monthly hours, hadn't flown NVD in 6 months, etc. Basic facts that I think most with experience flying complex missions like that can infer significant readiness problems. Also, Skipper relieved a few days before mishap, and command climate at the time. And that was an example I brought up only because I hadn't read that particular SIR so I felt I could discuss without breaking privilege. The ones I have read, showing glaringly similar issues in many other mishaps.
My point wasn't the breaking privilege, but the fact that news organizations speculate without any real, hard data. I would question where the news organizations got data like 'well below minimum monthly flight hours' or no NVD flights in 6 months - was the reporter talking to someone who had an agenda? Even then, your two examples of low flight hours and a poor command climate due to CO relief do not correlate with sequestration as the smoking gun.

People like to blame sequestration - but 1A1A money has been under a pinch well before sequestration was implemented. And in that time there have been spikes for various reasons, but I don't think that the mishap rate / 100k flight hours has trended up significantly since the 'peace dividend' cuts. To support your hypothesis, you would need to show a definite upward trend line of the mishap rate over the period of sequestration.

That being said, I do believe we are in the hurt locker and that the Air Boss is trying to fix, but this will not turn on a dime. It is going to take years to fix and in the meantime, we have to be careful how we approach mission proficiency.
 

Hotdogs

Leeroy Jenkins
pilot
#66
It is both a strength and an occasional liability.
From the outside looking inside at a different service, I see how you might have that perception. I just wouldn’t factor much of that mentality into risk decisions and judgement made by aircrew. Specifically when it comes to the safety of an aircraft before and during flight operations. Unless you can highlight examples in TACAIR with specific instances. I just haven’t seen it - and that doesn’t mean that it doesn’t exist either. In the tactical environment, I bet there is some disparity amongst Navy and Marine decision making and risk assessment just due to some of the differences in mission sets, TMS, and ultimately our primary costumer vs yours.
 

wlawr005

Well-Known Member
pilot
Contributor
#67
I never suggested that - only that our service cultures are different. Having recently deployed with a VMFA squadron, the gung ho, get the job done at any cost, power through mindset was evident to me. That doesn't mean I wouldn’t want to go into combat with those guys - far from it, but there is a distinct service culture that influences behavior and decision making in subtle ways. It is both a strength and an occasional liability.
Out of idle curiosity, are you unable to imagine a scenario that would require taking a down jet into combat?
I'm 100% certain you're capable of doing it, I'm actually just interested in watching you resolve these conflicting statements.
 
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BACONATOR

Well-Known Member
pilot
Contributor
#68
My point wasn't the breaking privilege, but the fact that news organizations speculate without any real, hard data. I would question where the news organizations got data like 'well below minimum monthly flight hours' or no NVD flights in 6 months - was the reporter talking to someone who had an agenda? Even then, your two examples of low flight hours and a poor command climate due to CO relief do not correlate with sequestration as the smoking gun.

People like to blame sequestration - but 1A1A money has been under a pinch well before sequestration was implemented. And in that time there have been spikes for various reasons, but I don't think that the mishap rate / 100k flight hours has trended up significantly since the 'peace dividend' cuts. To support your hypothesis, you would need to show a definite upward trend line of the mishap rate over the period of sequestration.

That being said, I do believe we are in the hurt locker and that the Air Boss is trying to fix, but this will not turn on a dime. It is going to take years to fix and in the meantime, we have to be careful how we approach mission proficiency.
I understand your points, and while they are valid, I think you're being a bit too devil's advocate. I think any aviator can read between the lines and glean what is hyperbolic and what is a nugget of truth that speaks to a problem. The hours and currency piece wasn't an opinion or agenda. It was a reported numbers of hours each crewmember flew and flew on NVDs within a certain timeframe, and referenced the minimum planned hours per year for an average squadron, which was even above the 3710 minimums. I have heard firsthand of squadrons where pilots are needing waivers for annual hours. Those minimums are not enough as they are, so not getting that level of proficiency is frightening.

The point remains, everyone on this thread is entitled to their opinions on the matter, and that's fine. But to discount my opinion that this is the second/third order effects of sequestration, and claim it's ignorant, or childish anger is unfounded. As much as you may disagree with it, everyone up to and including SECDEF are talking about this very issue of lack of resources relating to mishaps.
 

Brett327

Well-Known Member
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
#69
I'm 100% certain you're capable of doing it, I'm actually just interested in watching you resolve these conflicting statements.
I don’t see how they’re in conflict. There are times when operational necessity will dictate accepting increased risk. Service, or squadron, culture could certainly influence those decisions, but it’s a matter of degree, not a binary choice. It’s possible, based on my personal observations, that Marine aviation tends to be more tolerant of risk.
 

hscs

Registered User
pilot
#70
I understand your points, and while they are valid, I think you're being a bit too devil's advocate. I think any aviator can read between the lines and glean what is hyperbolic and what is a nugget of truth that speaks to a problem. The hours and currency piece wasn't an opinion or agenda. It was a reported numbers of hours each crewmember flew and flew on NVDs within a certain timeframe, and referenced the minimum planned hours per year for an average squadron, which was even above the 3710 minimums. I have heard firsthand of squadrons where pilots are needing waivers for annual hours. Those minimums are not enough as they are, so not getting that level of proficiency is frightening.

The point remains, everyone on this thread is entitled to their opinions on the matter, and that's fine. But to discount my opinion that this is the second/third order effects of sequestration, and claim it's ignorant, or childish anger is unfounded. As much as you may disagree with it, everyone up to and including SECDEF are talking about this very issue of lack of resources relating to mishaps.
I wasn't discounting your opinion -just saying (like others before me) that you haven't offered sufficient proof to say the mishaps are linked.
 

BACONATOR

Well-Known Member
pilot
Contributor
#71
I wasn't discounting your opinion -just saying (like others before me) that you haven't offered sufficient proof to say the mishaps are linked.
I've conceded that by stating it's my own hypothesis. I'm sure all the data-mining going on at the NSC, NPS and other places will be used for analysis to offer a more probabilistic and data-based causal link.