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Chances??

Hi Guys,

Any insight you can give my on my chances for the Nov/Dec SWO board would be greatly appreciated.

A couple of disclaimers:
1. This is my first post, so be warned.
2. After reading what seems like every post having anything to do with SWO, I have decided that my OAR score (of 45) in itself has sealed my Pro-Req N fate.

With that being said, I am hoping that my 3.75 GPA (Criminology- Law Enforcement from Cal State Fresno) would be enough to balance out my packet?

I have what I would consider strong LORs (military, law enforcement, professors, and a previous boss).
In college I was an active member in an honors society and a law enforcement academic association (did some volunteering through that).
I'm 21 years old.
Any other stats I forgot to mention, let me know.

Thanks!
 

Tycho_Brohe

Well-Known Member
pilot
Contributor
Firstly, it looks like you just joined today, so just FYI, "what are my chances" threads are somewhat frowned upon, because people put them up all the time, and it's really hard to say what an applicant's chances are since it's a moving target.

That said, I'd echo what picklesuit said, you should be able to retake the OAR, especially since your age is not an issue, you have all the time in the world. I'd ask your recruiter on his/her opinion on whether you should take a flyer on the upcoming board and retake if needed, or if you should hold onto your application and study up a bit for the OAR and resubmit when you're ready.
 
42%? Sounds more like generosity than fairness to me...

My apologies for the rookie mistake *trying to find the delete button to avoid frowns*. Thanks for the input.
 

Winn Dixie

CAPT, SC, USN
It really is impossible to calculate chances for any sort of Navy board, because we have no idea what the packages you are competing against look like. You don't need to outrun the bear, only the other runners.

My AOCS class had a 3.8 graduate of the University of Pennsylvania (not Penn State as he liked to remind us) and a 1.9 GPA graduate of a community college that you never heard of, so there's no telling.

I will tell you that if you don't make it, do what you can to polish up your record and apply again. This organization values perseverance above all other virtues because we need people who will keep going when the going gets shitty.
 

exNavyOffRec

Well-Known Member
It really is impossible to calculate chances for any sort of Navy board, because we have no idea what the packages you are competing against look like. You don't need to outrun the bear, only the other runners.

My AOCS class had a 3.8 graduate of the University of Pennsylvania (not Penn State as he liked to remind us) and a 1.9 GPA graduate of a community college that you never heard of, so there's no telling.

I will tell you that if you don't make it, do what you can to polish up your record and apply again. This organization values perseverance above all other virtues because we need people who will keep going when the going gets shitty.

I like the "don't need to outrun the bear only the other runners".

for OCS they really don't look at perseverance anymore, I think that may be a consideration in some other programs but now they really look at only the best qualified of who is in front of them, when we pulled the stats before it showed those with a N had their chances get worse the subsequent boards (same designator), but that is with no changes, those that improve GPA or if going for aviation retake the ASTB and get higher scores would be right in the mix again, I can only think of one person I had who retested and scored higher on the ASTB that didn't get picked up.

I think the OP has excellent stats and should have a very good chance at being selected based on what has been posted.
 

Renegade One

Well-Known Member
None
42%? Sounds more like generosity than fairness to me...
It's so often used because no one want's to hear the only absolutely TRUE numerical answer that pertains when predicting FUTURE outcomes…which is 50%. You either will or you won't.

But retake the ASTB/OAR anyway. Karma counts.
 
I do realize there are many variables involved in selection. I also understand no one in the AW community has a magic calculator capable of giving me any type of definitive answer.

I apologize for the painfully unoriginal post. My only goal here was to get some overall feedback/suggestions/advice. Also, I know that 50-55 is considered a competitive OAR score. So I'm wondering if the 5 point difference is a variable which is extremely significant, or if such a score might be overlooked paired with a decent GPA. I realize an answer to this would be mainly speculation, but I'd still be interested to hear any opinions. In any case, I plan to make many improvements to my packet and reapply.

Thank you all for taking the time to respond.
 

exNavyOffRec

Well-Known Member
I do realize there are many variables involved in selection. I also understand no one in the AW community has a magic calculator capable of giving me any type of definitive answer.

I apologize for the painfully unoriginal post. My only goal here was to get some overall feedback/suggestions/advice. Also, I know that 50-55 is considered a competitive OAR score. So I'm wondering if the 5 point difference is a variable which is extremely significant, or if such a score might be overlooked paired with a decent GPA. I realize an answer to this would be mainly speculation, but I'd still be interested to hear any opinions. In any case, I plan to make many improvements to my packet and reapply.

Thank you all for taking the time to respond.

Just go for it, your GPA will be above many that apply, I have had many picked up that had OAR at or just above the minimum, the thing is they had good GPA's, I also saw many with high OAR's not picked and they had average, or below average GPA's, the OAR opens the door, the GPA is what gets you closer to taking a seat on the OCS bus.
 
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