Europe under extreme duress

[Caesium]

Russia is not playing. Russia is restoring USSR to the possible degree - minus Baltic states, minus all former Asian "-stans" (Uzbeki-, Tajiki- etc, except for KZ, as it has gas and oil), but it is very interesting question about Ukraine, dunno for sure. And while Mr.Putin is doing so, no real threats to US interests in Europe exist. China is another question. Last time I've been in China (a month ago), I've noted the Chinese regional maps on the walls in a government buildings - Taiwan is painted the very same colour that mainland China, and the whole Korean peninsula has almost the same colour, I barely could tell North from South even staring at the blank-point. As Taiwan and South Korea are much more important US allies in Asia than Ukraine or Georgia in Europe, it seems that if your definite enemy is going to appear soon, it won't be Russia...

Not that my opinion counts for anything, but I suspect that the US and Russia will probably become fairly close over the next few years.

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

Not that my opinion counts for anything, but I suspect that the US and Russia will probably become fairly close over the next few years.

Agree, and not because of Mr.Trump or Mr.Putin, they are just officials. While it will never be something like "Welcome, this is Russia, a new NATO member", the real stocks at hand show that it's better to make a chain of deals between us than a chain of brawls...

 

[Flash]

Not that my opinion counts for anything, but I suspect that the US and Russia will probably become fairly close over the next few years.

I doubt it, very few folks in government trust Russia on anything.

 

[Randy Daytona]

'Bigger' in what sense?

Bottom line is they're both capable adversaries and we need to be prepared for a general conflict with either of them.

I would go through each element of DIME (it probably has been added to since I went through those courses) but I would argue that fiscal constraints would force you to focus on one or the other. (I tend to discount the nuclear exchange due to mutual assured destruction between the nuclear powers.)

What's your time horizon?

Long term.

Not that my opinion counts for anything, but I suspect that the US and Russia will probably become fairly close over the next few years.

This is one of the instances where I tend to agree with Flash, however there might be areas where our interests align.

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

Gents,

Well, evidently Putin and Erdogan are sharing the post-Assad Syria now. Ottonams will possess north, easying if not eliminating Kurds threat, Putin will get shore. Partly due to the needs for naval bases, as Russian Maritime Doctrine claims for constant naval presence in Med, and bases in Syria will be much more useful than that poor Sevastopol in Crimea. But mainly Putin wants Syrian seashore to be able to block any attempts to arrange gas/oil tube transport to Europe via all possible "southern streams" or alike, just to exclude any competition to northern pipelines via land and Baltic bottom which are totally controlled by Russians. Pure business, nothing personal, the same you an American did to ensure gas and crude oil markets' behaviour, and this is right. Repeat, this is right. No one should blame any nation for activity to grow wealth and protect it. Other question is that "any nation" has to do that very careful and politely. I was, is and always will be against Russian invasion in Crimea, even if it was inevitable, not in that time and not by those means. Possessing 2,5 million roughly "own" people on peninsula, Putin got 30+ million enemies in a kind of all the rest of Ukranian citizens. I think this is a mistake, as this MOOTW action weren't based on economy needs. But Syria is another picture. Putin and his throne-crowd are extremely rigid in intention to press ISIS to its snakepit and execute there, and evidently Erdogan has been pressed to accept this, too. Otherwise 9/11 or alike could occur again, which is unacceptable for both USA and Russia.

 

[Randy Daytona]

All kinds of things happening in Europe with the upcoming elections:

For the first time, Merkel has fallen behind in her bid for re-election. (election is in September)
http://www.politico.eu/article/spd-in-the-lead-according-to-german-poll/

The upcoming French election is a mess - whichever establishment party candidate rises to the top quickly gets pushed back down.
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/...ial-race-open-as-leftists-fail-to-join-forces

The Czech Republic's version of Donald Trump is far ahead in the polls.
http://www.economist.com/news/europ...-minister-shrugs-law-meant-contain-him-andrej

The Dutch election is also much more unpredictable than usual.
https://www.ft.com/content/4acee782-f1e3-11e6-8758-6876151821a6

As mentioned in another thread about the migration crisis hitting Europe, it is not only from the refugees from the Middle East but also large numbers of migrants coming in from Africa - which will have an effect on the elections.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/17/world/africa/africa-migrants-ceuta-spain-europe.html?_r=0

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

This migration wave will kill the Schengen zone for sure. Last time I was in Norway, arriving in the country from inside of EU (Lufthansa flight from Germany), getting out of an airliner I found myself under police inspection with all kind of routine border control stuff: fingerprints, interview, papers check etc - while I am not recembling the african or asian people, you know. Two years ago it was much simpler: just one quick passport control in the first European country to enter. Another example was with my fellow co-worker in Denmark: they stopped her car on the formal border between Germany and DK (where no passport and customs control exists for decades), and it took hours for her to prove the absence of illegal intentions to work as a slut in the country - they did not hesitate to tell her that. Other cars, both with local EU plates and foreign ones, were stopped too, with the same ripping inspection by Danish police, creating a huge traffic jam. Europeans are weak enough now. Last time in Israel, two months ago, I've met the Swedish lasertag instructor who somehow possessed the Israeli green card, and he told me that Sweden is absolutely fucking pacifistic nation, and if you are just slightly "right-winged" and don't like that present immigration, people would immediately declare you are a nazi - that is why he preferred to live in a country with healthy mental approach to tensions and wars - Israel.

 

[Brett327]

Also, fewer Nazis... presumably.

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

Well, they don't tell about this four-letter word in Germany. As if it didn't exist. Any kind of jokes are dangerous: you can broke even long-lasted relationships, needless to say business deals. But Sweds, who never liked Germans (there are folks in Russia who speak German but not English - just like Mr. Putin, btw - and one of them have told me that it is better to confess in Sweden plainly: "I'm not German, but German-only-speaking, sorry") use this word often to describe someone who is not faggot, not arab, not african, not asian, not smiling endlessly and sometimes wears cammie pants of military fashion with combat boots. It is enough to be called nazi there.

 

[Randy Daytona]

Number of good articles about Europe in Foreign Policy and Stars & Stripes lately.

VOICE
It’s Time for Europe’s Militaries to Grow Up
The continent can't blame Trump for its long-running inability to take care of its own security.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/02/23/its-time-for-europes-militaries-to-grow-up-trump-nato/

Poland guts military command on NATO front line
With the government moving to rid institutions of officials appointed by the former ruling Civic Platform party, which it defeated in 2015 elections, 90 percent of the General Staff leadership and more than 80 percent of the army's top brass have gone, according to the Defense Ministry...the ministry says the total size of the army increased to 106,000 in 2017 from 96,000 in 2015.

https://www.stripes.com/news/europe...mand-on-nato-front-line-1.455528#.WLHgUZryuM8

More Boots.
Germany’s planning to boost the size of its military to 200,000 by 2024.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/02/24...n-different-deportation-pages-and-a-bit-more/

 

[Randy Daytona]

Will Scotland vote to leave the United Kingdom now that the UK has voted for Brexit? From the Council on Foreign Relations.

The Scottish Play: Will Brexit Spell the End of a United Kingdom?

http://blogs.cfr.org/patrick/2017/0...ill-brexit-spell-the-end-of-a-united-kingdom/

 

[Randy Daytona]

It is the Ides of March - and in Holland, they are having an election. Should be an interesting day.

Hours before elections, Dutch have a problem: They can’t decide whom to vote for

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...d3afa0f7e2a_story.html?utm_term=.8b20d79302aa



And for the history majors, today is the 100th anniversary of the end of the Romanov dynasty in Russia. Czar Nicholas II abdicates this day in 1917 (executed 16 July 1918)

Sympathy for the Devil seems to fit here - somebody combined the song with Apocalypse Now and Full Metal Jacket - lot of helicopters...

 

[Flash]

Hours before elections, Dutch have a problem: They can’t decide whom to vote for...

Look like the Dutch decided, and Geert doesn't appear to be what they wanted.

 

[RadicalDude]

Shockingly the Dutch morons who vote aren't as plentiful as our morons who vote.

 

[scoolbubba]

Shockingly the Dutch morons who vote aren't as plentiful as our morons who vote.

Seriously, dude?

Get the fuck over yourself. Hilary lost. I didn't vote for Trump, but the ability to cast an entire group of people who may not agree with you as morons is pretty fucking rich.

You ever think that maybe, just maybe, that condescension and elitist attitude might just be why the SJWs lost this round?

Or that maybe, Trump's voters cast their ballots thinking their own best interests aligned more closely with him, warts and all. Just spitballing.