The odds are certainly in your favor if you’ve done intel, but I know of several JO 1835s who earned a direct commission with no intel background. Thinking of a couple lawyers, a history PhD, a scientist without a graduate degree, a finance person, and a Hill staffer, just off the top of my head. It can be done and there is a path, albeit uphill.
I think you are realistic about what can be done here Hair Warrior! JLew - I say go for it, but with eyes wide open.
I'm one of those that gained the 1835 direct commission - just recently selected actually. I did have about 9 years enlisted time in the reserve as an intel spec, a law degree, and some significant personal awards from deployment. It took me two tries before being selected for 1835.
I had also applied to active JAG a few times and was not selected. Commissioning can be very competitive. Intel - I was seriously competitive because of my intel back ground. I agree intel background helps and suggest enlisting in the reserve to gain some experience.
I really never had a shot a JAG. I went to a lower ranked law school and graduated near the bottom on my class. Even with a bronze star, that doesn't get you into JAG these days. My undergrad BA is respectable. But I was a terrible law student, but I passed the bar 1st shot. I went to law school with a full time job, two kids, a reserve gig - not even really sure how I went to law school - I see the perseverance as strengths, but strength is a lot easier to sell on paper when you say 1st of 50 as opposed to 40th of 50.
But I say it again, if JLEW is serious, there is a way. All kinds of people will tell you no. They may suggest ways that are better in their minds to do this. They may nay say and never suggest an alternative. There's a lot to sort through. Getting in is possible. Getting in as an officer with a Direct Commission is very hard. Not impossible, but enlisting is not all that hard in the reserve. I think it could open some doors for you. Time ticks with age, but there are ways to go form enlisted to officer on the reserve side with the Direct Commission and LDO. Frankly - being a Chief is pretty cool too if it doesn't work out.
If this guy wants to do it, I think there's a way. Good luck JLew. If you don't try, you'll never know. And frankly - it really isn't that hard to quit if you don't dig it.