I would actually be interested to see the long-term cost-effectiveness dynamics of that sort of thing.
For better or for worse, there's actually almost no contest among the people who do this for a living; robotic science missions are inifinitely preferable to manned missions by just about any metric usable. The only metric where manned spaceflight comes out ahead is in the intangible of "national prestige" - after all, that's what every manned mission since Mercury (or more precisely, since Yuri Gagarin and Vostok...) has been about.
Robotic missions obviously have handicaps, but they have the supreme advantage of not putting human life at stake. Consider the string of failures we had trying to penetrate the Martian IADS - between 1999 and 2003, 5 of the 6 missions were unsuccessful. (I'm being tongue in cheek about the IADS, but their interplanetary defenses seemed to be working quite well for a while...). Imagine the impact on the nation of a loss of life during a mission to Mars; instead of egg on Lockheed Martin's face for using furlongs per fortnight instead of meters per second, we'd have a national tragedy on the order of Columbia + Challenger combined. Better to send the robots into the teeth of the defenses....
Robots are not as cool, and certainly don't appeal to national prestige like manned flight, but the staggering costs associated with man-rated spaceflight are just that - staggering. If money were free, then manned flight would be a no brainer. But money is not free, and certainly not when we're facing a mult-generational war. NASA gets good bipartisan support when it comes to their funding, but I'm afraid when the Constellation bills start coming due in earnest that the program won't stand a snowball's chance. Robotic missions to the planets, including a Mars sample return, would stand a good chance of being funded as "sloppy seconds".
Until getting the price of a kg to LEO goes *way* down, manned lunar or interplanetary missions just won't justify the cost. Bummer, since I've always wanted to be an astronaut. But then again, considering the psycho be-atches the program seems to have attracted, maybe it's better to be content in my spy-dom....
